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AKP ushering in ‘dominant-party system,’ says expert

BARÇIN YİNANÇ
ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News
Friday, June 17, 2011

 

 

Turkey is increasingly moving toward a “dominant-party system” after the government’s stunning electoral victory last week in which it gained new voters and conquered new ground, according to a leading political scientist.

The ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP’s, hold victory left many dazzled – in contrast to past elections where the party’s wins worried many that the country was sliding toward conservatism. This time, however, a robust economy lies at the heart of the AKP’s victory, said Ali Çarkoğlu, an expert on voting behavior.

Moving its bases of support from the east to the west, where there are more voters, the AKP has become country’s “dominant party,” outscoring its closest rival by a two-to-one margin, Çarkoğlu told the Hürriyet Daily News in an interview this week.

Q: There is an ongoing debate on which party won and which party lost in the elections. What’s your take as a political scientist?

This election was a very significant one for a number of reasons. The volatility in Turkish preferences has considerably decreased. The largest vote getter is the AKP. But its votes increased only by 3 percent, which is not a substantial increase. Of course the fact that the AKP has held onto its previous votes is an achievement and that it managed to increase its vote is a greater achievement.

The left for a second time in a row has increased its share of the vote. A new left is in the making despite all its problems. The CHP [Republican People’s Party] increased its votes 5 percent, and compared to other parties, it has increased its vote share twice as much. This is significant in the absence of a fertile ground for the Turkish left to build its electoral power. When we look at the left/right scale, 18-19 percent is left of center, and of that, 7 percent is extreme left, which is unlikely to vote for the CHP.

On this basis, the CHP could only get 12-13 percent of the electorate that consider themselves on the left. This means they started to appeal to centrist voters. This is a new phenomenon, a new beginning for CHP. But of course, there can be an end to this new beginning if uneasiness on the part of the opponents within the party derails the current administration. I see in this a modest but potentially significant success story.

Another peculiarity of these elections is the disappearance of smaller parties. They basically evaporated into thin air. They used to get around 8 or 9 percent of the vote. The small amount of votes received by Felicity Party and [The People’s Voice Party, or HSP] means the total elimination of the old guard of [the Nationalist View] after 14 years following Feb. 28, 1997 [post-modern coup, in which the army issued a statement that effectively forced the Islamist Welfare Party, or RP, from power]. Electorally speaking, they no longer exist.

The phenomenal success of the Peace and Democracy Party [BDP] is also a peculiarity of this election. For the second time in a row, the independents increased their votes. That suggests the extreme left, together with an ethnic party, is a force to be reckoned with in Turkey. Since 1965, the socialist left was not able to get into Parliament. This is a potentially good development, since we know from past experience that socialists can be quite effective in Parliament.

Q: You call your observations peculiarities? Why is that?

A: The AKP was expected to win, but it is still a peculiarity that they not only held onto power but [also] increased their votes. The BDP won an uphill battle; they got more parliamentarians than they were expecting. Another peculiarity is the fact that the MHP [Nationalist Movement Party] made it into Parliament, despite the fact that 10 of its top administrators resigned due to sex scandals. An electorate that is known to be conservative has rewarded a party tarnished by sex scandals; that is a peculiarity ‘a la turca.’ But the absence of Turkish nationalists in the Parliament, where the BDP is present, would have created a representational disaster. Ninety-five percent of Turkish voters are represented in the Parliament. This means this Parliament will have no problem of representation when it comes to drafting the Constitution.

Q: What are the other peculiarities?

One other peculiarity is about the geographic pattern that emerged. There has been an onward east to west movement from the AKP. It reached the Aegean Sea. The AKP [had] uniform success over many [regions]; this homogeneous increase of their vote share pushed their competitors to the western corners of the country. The west is where the votes are. The AKP gained considerable ground in these provinces. The consolidation of the AKP’s electoral power has not stopped and they are expanding and winning new ground.

If we take an “average Turk” – ۳۰ years old, male, eight years of education with a modest household income and average religiosity – the probability for that person voting for the AKP in 2007, with the worst possible economic performance evaluations, was about 49 percent. In 2010 it was 66 percent and now it is about 75 percent. That tells us how successful the election campaign was. The economy was not that bright last year but the AKP has convinced [people] that they have done a good job and that they will continue to do a good job.

Q: So is the economy the major factor behind AKP’s success, with ideology having played a lesser role?

A: We can’t explain election results with a single factor. After all, the economy and ideology affect each other. Right wingers always tend to be optimistic on the economy while left wingers tend to be pessimistic. But evidence to the fact that ideology played a secondary role is the fact that the 50 percent that voted for the AKP cannot all be right wingers. The AKP appealed to all sorts of people in the ideological spectrum.

Q: You say there is very little volatility in Turkish party system. What does that tell us?

A: This means the consolidation of a new system, which we call the dominant party system. One party consistently obtains twice as much as the … runner up. [If] you add [together] the two runners up, they don’t [even] make up the total sum up of the AKP’s votes. That’s a typical dominant-party system.

Q: This might increase fears that the authoritarian signs shown by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan might strengthen, leading to an authoritarian regime.

A: I don’t particularly see why the dominant-party system should turn into an authoritarian regime. At least in the academic sphere, we see no such trend in the modern examples of such systems in Japan and India, for example. But as the Parliament is set to rewrite the Constitution, I would be worried if the dominant party might be tempted to impose its own preferences on the Constitution. Although it is below the 330 margin that would enable it to seek a referendum, it might still find five or six parliamentarians to pass that [threshold]. But there should be an implicit understanding that the Constitution should not be sought by a simple majoritarian vote.

Pros, cons accompany ‘dominant-party system’

The emergence of the “dominant-party system” in Turkey suggests that government’s performance is quite good as they would not have been able to rule for so long otherwise, according to political scientist Ali Çarkoğlu.

Still, the dominant party system, in which one party consolidates power as it wins twice as much as the opposition, is that it becomes so strong that competition between parties is replaced by competition between leading cadres within the party.

“The [ruling Justice and Development Party] AKP is not a mature party. It has not yet lost an election and has not faced a leadership crisis,” Çarkoğlu told the Hürriyet Daily News.

Although dominant parties become ossified in the long run in terms of its leading cadres, Çarkoğlu noted that the AKP had changed a significant number of its deputies.

The conservative tide seems to be receding back toward the center, said Çarkoğlu, adding that in the long run, economic performance would determine the success of AKP.

As it is very difficult to almost equally distribute more than 2 million votes among independent candidates, he also said the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party, or BDP, was remarkably successful in its effective mobilization of its supporters and disciplined voting behavior.

“The BDP is here to stay and it might start pushing for issues that go beyond ethnic issues, which could challenge other parties,” he said.

Çarkoğlu also said many educated people voted for the CHP, but added that he did not believe the party was one of elites. “We simply don’t have more than 10 million elite [people].”

© ۲۰۱۱ Hurriyet Daily News
URL: www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=akp-ushering-in-8216dominant-party-system8217-says-expert-2011-06-17

 

آشوب گسترش میابد

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آشوب  گسترش میابد و سرکوب  بی نتیجه  تشدید میشود
گزارشی از  اکونومیست

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Syria

From bad to worse

As the turmoil spreads, the repression intensifies—but so far in vain

Jun 16th 2011 | DAMASCUS | from the print edition

    THE big question, as the Syrian uprising enters its fourth month, is whether the protesters, who have been slaughtered in their hundreds by President Bashar Assad’s security forces, will themselves remain peaceful. The increasing violence of the repression, especially in the north-western town of Jisr al-Shughour and the province of Idleb surrounding it, is raising the stakes. An all-out assault on the city has prompted more than 8,500 people to flee to Turkey, some 20km (12 miles) away.

    Troops are sweeping through towns across the province in pursuit of what they claim are “armed gangs”. The town of Marat al-Numan, on the main road between Aleppo, the country’s second city, and Damascus, the capital, is readying itself for an attack. Tanks have moved into the area around Deir ez-Zor, a city of tribes and economic grievances in the east. In the restive port city of Latakia and in Homs, Syria’s third-biggest city, gunfire has been ringing out. Hama is still bubbling. The turmoil has been spreading dramatically. Demonstrations took place in no fewer than 138 locations on Friday June 10th, according to the opposition.

    In any event, a debate is raging among the protesters over what to do next. Gun prices in Homs (see article) have risen sharply as residents buy weapons to protect themselves from security-service thugs ransacking houses. “As the killing goes on, maybe weapons will be taken up,” says a former member of parliament who backs the protests. “But many townspeople have no idea how to use them.”

    In a number of instances protesters, who at first were overwhelmingly peaceful, have begun to fight back. In the smuggling town of Tel Kalakh, near the border with Lebanon, they have used rocket-propelled grenades and guns. Jisr al-Shughour, also close to the border, is an entrepot town. But the vast majority of protesters, keen to keep the moral high ground, still shun guns. Wanting foreign and local opinion on their side, they are wary of lending credence to the official line that the violence has been caused by “armed gangs”. Instead, the protesters have asked the security forces to stay away and have held a series of strikes. In Douma, on the edge of Damascus, protesters have also threatened civil disobedience.

    Another source of armed conflict is the splintering, rather than wholesale defection, of the army and the regime’s arming of loyalists. Some of the deaths in Jisr al-Shughour on June 4th were caused by loyalist soldiers firing at defectors, though the official figure of 120 dead (all at the hands of “armed gangs” in an ambush, say the official media) was probably inflated. But Sunni conscripts, who form the bulk of the regular army, are increasingly likely to desert, and quite a few have clearly done so. Some have fled from Jisr al-Shughour into the foothills near the Turkish border. Others elsewhere are said to have been shot for refusing to fire upon the protesters.

    But the security service is more reliably loyal. The regime’s political and military core is drawn from a tight circle of loyalists. Mr Assad has not been seen in public since April 16th (apart from a meeting with actors shown on television on May 15th), so rumours have spread that he is not in control. He has refused to take calls from the UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon.

    But this is a family affair. The key figures are Mr Assad’s younger brother, Maher, who commands an elite force known for its brutality and entrusted with defending Damascus; Rami Makhlouf, a cousin, said to be Syria’s richest man; the president’s brother-in-law, Asef Shawkat, the army’s deputy commander; and a clutch of intelligence chiefs. They all stick together, each depending on the others.

    The security forces are bolstered by gangs including the shabiha, a thuggish militia drawn from the Assads’ Alawite sect, which makes up 10% of Syria’s population as against the 75% who are Sunni. This, along with the regime’s arming of Alawite villages and reports that Sunni prisoners are being mockingly told to declare Bashar Assad their deity, has stirred sectarian feelings; some 10,000 Syrians suspected of dissidence are now said to be behind bars. In other words, the scene may be set for a still wider and bloodier conflict.

    from the print edition | Middle East & Africa

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    «احوال صنایع خود رو از زبان «ایلنا

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    دو گزارش خبری قابل توجه در باره صنایع خود روسازی  در یک سایت و در یک روز

    مدیر عامل سایپا:

    با افزایش نرخ ارز؛

    فاتحه صنعت خودرو خوانده می‌شود

     

    اگر خودروسازان، قادر به افزایش قیمت محصولات تولیدی خود نباشند، باید به نحوی وضعیت پیش آمده را کنترل کرده و از سود خود بکاهند.

     

    ایلنا :افزایش هزینه های تولید و قیمت کالاهای مصرفی، نخستین پیامد نگران کننده افزایش نرخ ارز به شمار می رود که بیش از هر چیز دیگری، دامن مصرف کنندگان را می گیرد.
    به گزارش خبرنگار ایلنا، خودرو هم یکی از مهم ترین کالاهای مصرفی است که در حالت تولید داخل و یا وارداتی بودن، به انحای گوناگون تحت تاثیر افزایش نرخ ارز قرار می گیرد.
    با افزایش نرخ ارز که اخیرا توسط بانک مرکزی اتفاق افتاد، تولید کنندگان ناچارند هزینه بیشتری را برای تامین مواد اولیه و قطعات مورد نیاز تولید محصول نهایی و مشتریان نیز، پول بیشتری برای خرید خودرو پرداخت کنند.
    صنعت خودروسازی ایران مانند صنایع خودروسازی تمام دنیا، برخی قطعات و مجموعه های مونتاژی را از منابع خارج از کشور تامین می کند، زیرا صنعتی سازی و داخلی سازی برخی قطعات از نظر اقتصادی به صرفه نیست. ادامه حیات بسیاری از خودروهای برند های مختلف خارجی نیز که به صورت سی کی دی وارد و در ایران مونتاژ می شود، به دلیل بالا رفتن قیمت ارز، مختل و یا منتفی می شود. شرکت های خودروساز بزرگ نیز ناچارند بهای بیشتری برای خرید از منابع خارجی پرداخت کنند که ضمن فشار وارد آوردن بر خودروساز، منجر به افزایش قیمت محصول نهایی خواهد شد. در چنین شرایطی اگر افزایش قیمت محصول، توسط قوانین منتفی باشد، خودروسازان ناچارند فشار بیشتری را تحمل کنند.

    شوک جدید
    در حالی که هنوز از شروع هدفمندسازی یارانه ها مدت زیادی نگذشته و خودروسازها مدت زیادی نیست که با ابزارهای مدیریتی و مهندسی هزینه ها، خود را با هدفمندسازی یارانه ها هماهنگ کرده اند، ناچارند شوک هزینه ای دیگری را که در اثر افزایش نرخ ارز بر آنان وارد می شود، مدیریت کنند و از سر بگذرانند، مگر این که اجازه افزایش قیمت محصولات خود را داشته باشند، که آسیب آن بیش از هر چیزی مصرف کننده را تحت تاثیر قرار می دهد.
    اگر خودروسازان بخواهند برای رهایی از آسیب های افزایش نرخ ارز، خود را از قطعات خارجی بی نیاز کنند، هم به زمان نیاز دارد و هم به سرمایه گذاری، آن هم برای محصولات و قطعاتی که پیشتر غیر اقتصادی بودن تولید آن ها به اثبات رسیده است. لذا چنین امری منتفی است و تامین از منابع خارجی بایستی ادامه داشته باشد و افزایش قیمت نیز به نظر اجتناب ناپذیر می رسد.

    مشتری، متضرر نهایی
    هر اندازه سطح فناوری خودروها بالاتر باشد، میزان وابستگی آن ها به منابع خارجی و ارزبری آن ها بیشتر است، افزایش قیمت آن ها نیز بیشتر است و در صورت کاهش قدرت خرید مشتریان، باید منتظر روزی باشیم که بازار خودروی ایران از خودروهایی آکنده شود که از سطح فناوری پایین تری برخوردارند و تعداد خودروهای مدرن روز به روز کم تر و یا تقاضا جا به جا شود.
    کارشناسان پیش بینی می کنند که با افزایش نرخ ارز، خودروهای خارجی حداقل ۵درصد و خودروهای داخلی نیز به نسبت میزان ارزبری تولید، افزایش قیمت خواهند داشت. کارشناسان هم چنین بر این باورند که خودروسازان خصوصی، بیشترین تاثیر را بابت افزایش نرخ ارز تجربه می‌کنند، زیرا درصد داخلی سازی اندک آن ها، به معنای ارزبری بیشتر بوده که رشد هزینه تمام شده تولید را در پی خواهد داشت. خودروسازان این بخش با محدودیت‌های خاص روبه ‌رو هستند و گران شدن ارز، مشکلات آن ها را بیشتر خواهد کرد، چرا که بر مبنای دلار هزار و ۵۰ تومانی برنامه ریزی کرده اند و افزایش یک باره قیمت توسط بانک مرکزی را پیش بینی نمی کردند.
    قطعاتی که هم‌ اکنون خودروسازان خصوصی سفارش‌گذاری می‌کنند، چند ماه بعد وارد خط تولید خواهد شد، اما چون باید متناسب با قیمت فعلی ارز، پول به گمرک کشور بدهند، افزایش نرخ ارز بسیار زودتر تاثیر خود را بر قیمت محصولات آنان خواهد نهاد. این بخش نیز با توجه به افزایش نرخ ارز، ناچارند و مایلند به گونه ای قیمت محصولات خود را متعادل کنند.

    پیامدها در صادرات
    توجیه پذیری صدور محصولات تولید داخل، تنها پیامد مثبت افزایش نرخ ارز است، زیرا درآمد بیشتری را برای صادر کنندگان محقق می سازد و آن ها می ‌توانند از آن راه، بخشی از هزینه‌های بالای تولید را جبران کنند. اما از ان جا که هنوز راه صادرات در صنعت خودروسازی هموار نشده است ، با در آمد اندکی که از راه صدور محصولات به دست می آید، امیدی به استفاده از مزیت‌های صعود نرخ ارز نیست. علاوه بر این ها، با رشد تورم که از دیگر پیامدهای افزایش نرخ ارز به شمار می رود، صادرات موجود نیز کاهش پیدا می کند.

    هزینه مضاعف
    افزایش نرخ ارز، نه تنها خودروسازان را وادار می کند تا بهای بیشتری برای قطعات و یا خودروهای وارداتی بپردازند، بلکه از آن جا که هزینه های گمرکی که بر اساس نرخ ارز محاسبه می شود، نیز در این میان افزایش می یابد، این بخش نیز به بار سنگین هزینه هایی که خودروساز یا وارد کننده باید بپردازد، افزوده می شود. در حال حاضر تعرفه گمرکی قطعات وارداتی، بین ۲۵ تا ۶۴ درصد است که بسته به قیمت ارز افزایش می یابد.

    خواندن فاتحه صنعت و تولید
    کارشناسان معتقدند تا کم تر از یک ماه دیگر افزایش نرخ ارز اثرات ابتدایی خود را بر صنعت خودرو کشور خواهد گذاشت و برای مدیریت بر پیامدهای آن بر قیمت خودرو، اگر خودروسازان، قادر به افزایش قیمت محصولات تولیدی خود نباشند، باید به نحوی وضعیت پیش آمده را کنترل کرده و از سود خود بکاهند.
    از آن جا که بسیاری از مواد اولیه تولید قطعات، از منابع خارجی تامین می شود، با افزایش نرخ ارز، افزایش قیمت در این بخش هم قابل پیش بینی است که به منظور جبران آن، قطعه‌سازان و خودروسازان باید بر سر قیمت‌های جدید به توافق برسند. در حال حاضر مذاکره بین این دو شروع شده، تا اثر افزایش قیمت تمام شده قطعات جبران شود. برای ادامه تولید اقتصادی در صنعت قطعه‌سازی، باید حداقل افزایش بابت تأمین مواد اولیه این صنعت جبران شود.
    استفاده از ابزارهایی مانند نرخ ارز، عمدتا نشان دهنده یک نگرش بازرگانی است تا تولیدی و افزایش قیمت ارز، در کشورهای در حال توسعه مانند ایران که می خواهند بر مبنای تولید و صنعت رشد کنند، کارساز نیست، چرا که نرخ ارز پایه اقتصاد کشور است و با ایجاد تورم کاذب ناشی از افزایش نرخ ارز، نقدینگی محدود شده و صنعت در معرض تهدید رکود جدی قرار می گیرد. رشد نسبی که در حال حاضر در بخش صنعت خودرو و قطعه سازی حاصل شده، حاصل دوران های تثبیت نرخ ارز است.
    پایان پیام

     

    1390/3/29 – 10:00
    کد خبر : ۱۹۲۳۵۶

     

     

     

    ظرفیت تولید خودرو در ونزوئلا به۱۰۰هزار دستگاه می رسد

    در آخرین جلساتی که با مقامات ارشد شرکت رنوپارس برگزار شد بحث طراحی محصولات جدید بر روی پلت فرم X90 با استقبال طرفین روبرو شد و استفاده از حداکثر ظرفیت ها برای حضور شرکای خارجی در دستور کار قرار گرفت.

    ایلنا:مدیرعامل گروه خودروسازی سایپا از برنامه ریزی گسترده برای استفاده از ظرفیت های منحصر بفرد شرکت توسعه صنایع خودرو خبر داد و گفت: با همکاری شرکت رنو پارس تلاش می کنیم با انتقال فناوری های روز دنیا به داخل، ظرفیت صادرات محصولاتمان را افزایش دهیم.

    به گزارش ایلنا، نعمت الله پوستین دوز، با بیان این مطلب شرکت توسعه صنایع خودرو(ایدکو) را یکی از مدل های خوب و پویا دانست که در صنعت خودرو کشور شکل گرفته است.

    وی که در مراسم معارفه “محمدرضا محسنی” مدیرعامل جدید شرکت توسعه صنایع خودرو(ایدکو)، سخن می گفت، اظهار داشت: حضور موثر و فعال شرکت توسعه صنایع خودرو در جمع سهام داران اصلی شرکت رنو پارس موجب شده تولید تندر۹۰ در دو شرکت ایران خودرو و پارس خودرو امسال روند رو به رشدی داشته باشد و در آینده در حوزه های ارتقا ظرفیت تولید و بهبود کیفیت، دستاوردهای بزرگی را شاهد خواهیم بود.

    پوستین دوز مباحث مربوط به ایجاد کسب و کارهای جدید توسط اعضای ایرانی شرکت رنوپارس را در آستانه اجرایی شدن دانست و تاکید کرد: در آخرین جلساتی که با مقامات ارشد شرکت رنوپارس برگزار شد بحث طراحی محصولات جدید بر روی پلت فرم X90 با استقبال طرفین روبرو شد و استفاده از حداکثر ظرفیت ها برای حضور شرکای خارجی در دستور کار قرار گرفت.

    وی گفت: شرکت توسعه صنایع خودرو با ونزوئلا در حال همکاری است و برنامه های بزرگی در حال انجام است و موانع و مشکلات بر سر راه همکاری با شرکت ونیراتو در حال مرتفع شدن است و شریک خارجی نیز قول داده با همکاری طرف ایرانی ظرفیت تولید خود را به ۱۰۰هزار دستگاه خودرو برساند.

    پوستین دوز تصریح کرد: شرکت توسعه صنایع خودرو دارای ظرفیتی منحصر بفرد در کشور بوده و آن توانایی واردات فناوری خارجی و افزایش ظرفیت تولید داخل و به طور همزمان انتقال فناوری و افزایش میزان صادرات به خارج از کشور است.

    مدیر عامل گروه خودروسازی سایپا بیان کرد: تلاش می کنیم با برنامه ریزی های کاربردی و دقیق زمینه های انتقال فناوری های روز دنیا را به داخل کشور و افزایش میزان صادرات محصول را به خارج از کشور به طور همزمان از طریق شرکت توسعه صنایع خودرو دنبال کنیم.

    “محمدرضا محسنی” مدیرعامل جدید شرکت توسعه صنایع خودرو، با قدردانی از اعتماد مدیر عامل گروه خودروسازی سایپا ابراز امیدواری کرد که این شرکت با پیگیری برنامه ها و اهداف، روند رو به رشد خود را دنبال کند.

    یادآور می شود که “محسنی” جایگزین “رضا سرایی” مدیرعامل فعلی شرکت زامیاد شد که پیش از این در شرکت توسعه صنایع خودرو مشغول به کار بوده است.

    پایان پیام

     

     

     

    1390/3/29 – 14:01

    کد خبر : ۱۹۲۴۶۱

     

    وقتی متقلبان مچ همدیگر را میگیرند

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    گزارشی از سایت تابناک

    سایت سردار سپاه رضایی

     

    کد خبر: ۱۷۱۵۵۷
    تاریخ انتشار: ۲۹ خرداد ۱۳۹۰ – ۱۲:۳۵
    تعداد بازدید: ۱۱۴۹۱
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    اصل توافق نامه منعقده بین این دانشگاه مدرک فروش ارمنستانی و فرقه کیهانی، پرداخت سیصد هزار درام، معادل هشتصد دلار بابت صدور دکترای افتخاری برای هر گروه ۲۰ تا ۵۵ نفره بوده است، اما «امیرحسین س» با هماهنگی با دیگر شرکای جاعل خود، با دستکاری در اصل قرارداد و حذف بند ۲ قرارداد که بیانگر ارتباط مالی این فرقه با این دانشگاه است به اخاذی از فریب خوردگان فرقه می پردازد، در واقع با دریافت مبلغ ۱۳۰۰ دلار…
    یکی از شگردهایی که فرقه گریان در دستور کار خود قرار می دهند، مال اندوزی از راه تحمیق مریدان است.

    به گزارش «تابناک»، سران فرقه کیهانی که تنها و تنها به فکر افزودن موجودی حساب های خود در بانک های خارجی به وسیله سرکیسه کردن و اخاذی کردن از مردم هستند، در یکی دیگر از اقدامات خود، برگ قرارداد با دانشگاه طب سنتی ارمنستان را دستکاری و جعل کرده اند.

    چندی پیش، پیروان این فرقه با ایجاد هیاهو از دریافت دکترای افتخاری توسط رئیس فرقه که هنوز نتوانسته داشتن دیپلم خود را نیز به اثبات برساند، از دانشگاهی در ارمنستان خبر دادند.

    در همین باره، شخصی با نام «امیرحسین س» که از اعضای این فرقه است، با ارتباط گیری با ریاست دانشگاه طب سنتی ارمنستان آقای سریبکیان و قول جذب افراد این فرقه و پرداخت پول بابت مدارکی که به یک پول سیاه نیز نمی ارزد، این مدرک را برای «م ط» فراهم می کند تا از این راه هم در دل استاد! جای باز نماید و هم بتواند نقشه شوم اخاذی خود را به اجرا گذارند.

    نام نویسی آغاز می شود

    رئیس این فرقه که از این مدرک بی محتوا غرق در شعور کیهانی می شود و با چاپ عکس به خیال خود، فارغ از تحصیل می شود، به تبلیغ این شخص و این نوع مدرک در بین اعضا پرداخته که همین امر و همچنین پیش ثبت نام توسط دیگر عناصر این فرقه، موجب می شود تا پانصد تن از اعضای این فرقه برای دریافت این مدرک مجعول نام نویسی کنند.

    جعلیات شروع می شود

    اصل توافق نامه منعقده بین این دانشگاه مدرک فروش ارمنستانی و فرقه کیهانی، پرداخت سیصد هزار درام، معادل هشتصد دلار بابت صدور دکترای افتخاری برای هر گروه ۲۰ تا ۵۵ نفره بوده است، اما «امیرحسین س» با هماهنگی با دیگر شرکای جاعل خود با دستکاری در اصل قرارداد و حذف بند ۲ قرارداد که بیانگر ارتباط مالی این فرقه با این دانشگاه است، به اخاذی از فریب خوردگان فرقه می پردازد، در واقع با دریافت مبلغ ۱۳۰۰ دلار از هر نفر و هزینه کرد تنها ۴۵۰ دلار، نزدیک پانصد مدرک بی محتوا در اختیار فریب خوردگان این فرقه می گذارد.

    با یک حساب سرانگشتی، نامبرده مبلغ چهار صد و بیست و پنج هزار دلار برای پانصد برگ چاپی که شاید ارزش قاب کردن هم نداشته باشد تا چه برسد به عنوان یک مدرک علمی به شمار آید، به جیب زده است.

    گفتنی است، اصل قرارداد که به زبان روسی است تا کنون نه ترجمه شده و نه عناصر مال باخته فرقه از محتوای آن چیزی می دانند.

    بنا بر این گزارش، نامبرده با پول های بادآورده که ماحصل حماقت افراد جذب شده به این فرقه است در شهر ایروان آژانس هواپیمایی تاسیس کرده تا به راحتی بتواند به اعمال خلاف قانون خود ادامه دهد، ضمن اینکه با اعتراض عده ای از اساتید این دانشگاه در خصوص به زیر سوال رفتن هویت علمی دانشگاه با عقد این چنین قراردادی و از سوی دیگر، آگاهی ریاست این دانشگاه از دستگیری رئیس این فرقه، قرارداد اصلی هم از سوی دانشگاه ارمنستان فسخ می شود.

    گفتنی است، برخی اخبار حاکی از آن است که اعضای این فرقه با توجه به رسوایی به بار آمده درباره اخاذی و جعل به دنبال بستن قرارداد جدید و ذکر ارقام بالا به صورت صوری برای توجیه این کلاهبرداری خود هستند.

     

    ?چرا ایران مجبور است اسد را رها کند

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    Why Iran needs to drop Assad
    Friday 17 June 2011
    By Amir Taheri 

    Is Iran beginning to abandon the Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad?
    Officially, the Baathist regime in Damascus and the Khomeinist regime in Tehran remain strategic allies. Under a treaty, signed in 2004, they are committed to helping one another against “external threats”. They also hold annual meetings of senior military commanders, ostensibly to “coordinate efforts to strengthen regional stability.” Iran supplies arms to Syria and has been training Syrian security personnel since the mid-1990s. Iran’s annual aid package to Syria amounts to more than $500 million.
    Specialists believe that, after the disintegration of the Communist bloc, the Islamic Republic has replaced the Soviet Union as Syria’s
    protector.
    Syria has been useful to Iran in several ways.
    It has prevented the emergence of a united Arab bloc against the Khomeinist regime and acted as a channel for Iranian influence in Lebanon.
    Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made no secret of his ambition to see Iran secure a presence in the Mediterranean for the first time since the 7th century. That, he hopes, would be achieved by dominating Iraq and using Syria and Lebanon as client states. Tehran media depicted the recent appearance of an Iranian war flotilla in Syrian ports as a dramatic occasion to “show the flag”.
    Over the past year, a new factor has increased Syria’s value as an Iranian asset in the geostrategic competition in the Middle East.
    That factor is Turkey.
    Convinced that joining the European Union is more of a mirage than a possibility, Turkish leaders have switched to a “neo-Ottoman” foreign policy aimed at creating a zone of influence from the Caspian Basin to North Africa.
    Turkey’s new ambitions clash with Iran’s hegemonic plans.
    Their rivalry is not limited to geopolitics. There is also a subtext of ideological competition. Turkey’s current leadership is a moderate branch of the Muslim Brotherhood using the label of the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
    “Today, Turkey is offering a model to the Muslim world,” Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan told an election victory rally in Istanbul last Sunday. “Turkey wants to become a voice for Muslims throughout the world.”
    For Khomeinists in Tehran, Erdogan’s claim is as provocative as waving a red cloth at a Spanish bull. (The Khomeinist Constitution claims that Ali Khamenei is “Leader of all Muslims throughout the world.”)
    For some three years, Turkey has been assiduously courting Syria. The two have signed business deals amounting to $1 billion, a large sum for Syria’s small economy. Turkey has also served as “facilitator” in talks between Syria and Israel. That, in turn, has reinforced Israel’s traditional policy of supporting the Assad clan against an “unknown future.”
    Since the mullahs seized power in 1979, Tehran has harbored the hope of emerging as “regional superpower”. With the United States apparently bent on strategic retreat under President Obama, Tehran’s hubris reached its peak under Ahmadinejad. Turkey’s unexpected entry in the competition threatened Tehran’s ambitions.
    Suddenly, Syria looked like a key pawn.
    It is no surprise that the media in Iran have chosen to ignore the uprising against the Syrian regime. Until this week, whenever the uprising was mentioned it was branded “an American-Zionist plot”. And, yet, there are signs, still faint, that Tehran might be reconsidering the situation in Syria.
    For the first time since the uprising started, the official news agency IRNA has ran an item about “the need to respond to the legitimate demands of the Syrian people.” The daily Kayhan, controlled by the office of the “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei, advises Syrian leaders to carry out “necessary reforms” to defeat “American-Zionist conspiracies.” Hard-line members of the Islamic Majlis, Iran’s fake parliament, claim that Syria is in trouble because it “dabbled in secularism.”
    More importantly, perhaps, Tehran has decided to stop the flow of pilgrims to a “holy shrine” near Damascus. The excuse given by the Khomeinist Cultural Attaché in Syria is that the pilgrims also travel to Lebanon where they visit “Christian majority areas” and become exposed to “wrong ideas.”
    It is, of course, too early to tell whether Tehran will jettison the Assad clan. However, such an eventuality could not be ruled out. Khomeinists have never hesitated to drop a protégé when he looked like a loser. (Recently, Tehran dropped the al-Hakim clan in Iraq, having supported it for three decades. Tehran diverted its support to the group led by Muqtada al-Sadr.)
    If Tehran’s attitude changes, the key, once again, would be Turkey. Having initially backed the Assad clan, Turkey has now switched to supporting the uprising. By doing so it is banking on the future as the Assad clan increasingly looks like the past. Iran, however, is still wedded to the past in Syria, and could thus emerge as a loser.
    If there is regime change in Damascus, Iran would be shut out as a power that supported the Assad clan while it was killing the people in the streets. If the Assad clan manages to hang on to a semblance of power through mass carnage, Tehran would end up saddled with an isolated and bankrupt regime In Damascus.
    Turkey’s prospects are different. A new regime in Damascus would regard Turkey as a true friend that supported the Syrian people against a regime they rejected. If the Assad clan remains in power, Turkey would emerge as the leader of a new wave of reform and change across the Greater Middle East.
    Under all conceivable configurations, the only way for Iran to avoid becoming a loser is to jettison Assad and reach out to the Syrian people.
    Whatever one might think about them, Tehran’s geo-strategists would not be as out of touch with reality not to know all that.

     

     

     

     

     

     


    من ملتی را که جزئی از ان هستم متهم می کنم

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    مقاله ایی از «الحیات» انگلیسی  در مورد جوهر دموکراسی اندیشی اعراب و مسائل فرقه ایی .

    ******

    Ayoon Wa Azan (I Accuse the Nation of Which I Am Part)

    Fri, 08 April 2011
    Jihad el-Khazen

     

    When Emile Zola said ‘J’accuse’ in 1898, he accused the highest echelons of the French army of obstruction of justice and anti-Semitism, in the case of Captain Alfred Dreyfus, who was convicted unjustly of leaking information to the German Embassy, and was banished to Devil’s Island.

    Personally, I accuse the entire nation;

    – I accuse the nation of being anti-democratic, nay the antithesis of democracy.

    No one in our countries is democratic, from the secularists who talk about the other opinion then reject it, to the fundamentalists who consider democracy to be a heresy, and the terrorists who emerged from our midst to murder Muslims in the name of religion of which they are the true enemies.

    Arabs are against democracy as much as they are fervent in calling for democracy. Their version of democracy has no room for others, and accuses regimes and their political opponents of harboring the same faults they have within them. Arabs, whether they are secular or religious, are opposed to U.S. policies in our countries, but fail to see that they pursue the ugliest aspect of these policies, i.e. George W. Bush’s ‘Either you’re with us, or against us”.

    Every Arab is a George W. Bush, as he believes that those who are not with him are against him.

    – I accuse every Arab of being unjust. I never excuse him of this, because the Arab knows that injustice has dire consequences, and yet, the Arab says “Your day will come, Oppressors” but then the Arab oppresses others.

    The Arab revolutions of rage have provided me with conclusive evidence regarding Arab injustice that I already knew of. From the two ousted regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, to those regimes gearing up to be ousted, all people are thieves, murderers and torturers.

    But is it possible that there are no honest men, even if they were few, in Egypt and Tunisia, or Libya and Yemen and elsewhere? Democracy that the Arabs preach but do not practice, justice, which is the basis of any rule, and sheer humanity all stipulate that every person is innocent until proven guilty.

    There are thousands and thousands of Arabs, who now know every detail of the fortune of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s wife and her family, up to the fractions of the dollar, and also the fortunes of Hosni Mubarak and Mrs. Suzanne and their two sons, Muammar Gaddafi and his sons or his gang, and Ali Abdullah Saleh and his son and nephew who is also his son in law.

    Since Arabs have a limited understanding, an accusation that I shall elaborate, I want to put it on the record that the above does not exonerate anyone at all. I am aware that there is rampant corruption, but I leave it to the courts to convict or acquit, and I accept their judgment either way, because these courts know more than I do, and they alone have the right to say that this man is a thief and this man is honest.

    To explain further, I live in the West, which is democratic in practice not just in lip service. I learned from the Western press that the defendant, even if he were arrested with a smoking gun, remains ‘the alleged killer’ until the court issues its verdict and convicts him, at which point he becomes the killer. But if the defendant appeals, then he is described as ‘the alleged killer’ again, until the final verdict is issued. In our countries, however, every passerby near a place where a young girl was raped is arrested, and called a ‘sexual predator’ in the newspapers even before the indictment is issued, let alone the conviction. He may indeed be acquitted, but only after his reputation is tarnished with the worst possible charge.

    – I accuse the nation of the lack of comprehension, which originally stems from its ignorance. However, I want to be specific and focused today.

    Half of the nation can now read, but the majority of the ‘educated’ read but doesn’t understand. I had been the target of a lot of misunderstanding, to the point that I accused myself. I feared that what I wrote, or what I said in conferences and televisions, was incomprehensible by virtue of my long stay abroad. I thus started asking colleagues, writers and academicians about this, and each came back to me with a story about their own suffering with this problem, to the extent that I am now thinking about writing a book on the subject together with a colleague of mine.

    Recently, I wrote an article attacking 36 Jordanian tribal figures and a statement they had issued, and I was accused as a result of attacking tribes even when I was praising them in the article. I was also accused of insulting the women in the tribes, even when I was defending them because their fathers gave them ugly names (incidentally, the Qabiha [Ugly woman] is the name of Al-Mutawakkil’s slave, Umm al-Mu’taz, and it is not my fault that some men still live in the third century AH, and it seems that the stones of Arabia Petra have seeped through into some hearts and minds).

    Perhaps we need another thousand years to move from the stage of reading to the stage of comprehending what we read.

    – I accuse the nation of cowardice, especially with regard to the United States… “Your orders, Uncle Sam”, and Israel, the state of six million thieves that occupies Arab and Muslim land, and yet 300 million Arabs and 1.3 billion Muslims are unable to liberate the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

    – I accuse the Arabs of hypocrisy. They are always on the side of the victors. I have an example for this from journalism, my profession: The same journalists, who made Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi heroes, began calling them tyrants when they were defeated.

    Finally, I accuse but do not convict, because the verdict belongs to history. I accuse the nation of which I am part, and along which I am also accused.