Archive for: June 2011

چقدر دلار به بازار تزریق شد؟

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رمزگشایی رییس کل بانک مرکزی

چقدر دلار تزریق شد؟

دنیا‌ی‌اقتصاد- رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی با بیان اینکه هر ۱۰ دلار افزایش قیمت نفت، ۷ میلیارد درآمدهای نفتی کشور را افزایش می‌دهد، اعلام کرد بانک مرکزی از محل افزایش نرخ ارز طی هفته‌های گذشته، ۲۹۰ میلیارد تومان به حساب خزانه واریز کرده است. با احتساب اینکه دوهفته از افزایش ناگهانی نرخ ارز می‌گذرد و با توجه به افزایش ۱۰۰ تومانی نرخ ارز مرجع درآمد اعلام شده از سوی بهمنی، برآورد می‌شود حدود ۳ میلیارد دلار ارز از سوی بانک مرکزی به بازار تزریق شده است.

رمزگشایی آقای رییس کل
چقدر دلار تزریق شد؟
گروه بازار پول- رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی با اشاره به تبعات افزایش نرخ ارز در چند هفته گذشته گفت: دو هزار و ۹۰۰ میلیارد ریال از محل افزایش نرخ ارز عاید دولت شد. به گزارش پایگاه اطلاع‌رسانی دولت، محمود بهمنی با تاکید بر اینکه دولت به‌دنبال درآمد از طریق افزایش نرخ ارز نبوده است، اضافه کرد: به دنبال افزایش نرخ ارز بانک مرکزی تلاش کرد با تنظیم این بازار و حذف فاصله ایجاد شده میان نرخ آزاد و مرجع در بازار مداخله کند که این مداخله  موجب شد دو هزار و ۹۰۰ میلیارد ریال به خزانه کشور واریز شود.
قیمت دلار رسمی در ۱۸ خرداد بیش از ۱۰۰ تومان افزایش یافت، با توجه به آنکه بانک مرکزی هر هفته ۵/۱ میلیارد دلار ارز به بازار تزریق می‌کند به نظر می‌رسد سود ۲۹۰ میلیارد تومانی با عرضه ۳ میلیارد دلار از ذخایر بانک مرکزی به دست آمده است.رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی با بیان اینکه توان کشور برای مدیریت بازار ارز بالا است، گفت: هر ۱۰ دلار افزایش قیمت نفت، ۷ میلیارد دلار درآمدهای نفتی کشور را افزایش می‌دهد. بهمنی گفت: مجلس شورای اسلامی بانک مرکزی را از افزایش دارایی‌های خارجی منع کرده و این بدان معناست که باید این دارایی‌ها تزریق شود و بخشی از این منابع به صورت طبیعی به گشایش اعتبارات اسنادی در می‌آید. وی گفت :از طرفی این منابع فرصت مناسبی را برای مدیریت نرخ ارز برای بانک مرکزی فراهم کرده است و چون کمبودی نداریم به راحتی می‌توانیم عملیات مدیریت نرخ ارز را انجام دهیم. رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی با بیان اینکه اگر دست ما از ارزهای خارجی پر نبود، برای تنظیم بازار ارز وارد عمل نمی شدیم، گفت: اضافه قیمت نفت که در بودجه تعیین شده است باید به حساب خزانه واریز شود، به عبارت دیگر وقتی قیمت نفت از ۵/۸۱ به ۱۲۰ دلار در هر بشکه می‌رسد و میانگین آن به ۱۱۲ دلار می‌رسد، درآمد کشور هم متناسب با آن افزایش یافته است. بهمنی با انتقاد از برخی افراد که تا چندی پیش از پایین بودن نرخ ارز گلایه مند بودند و مقاله منتشر می‌کردند، افزود: فهرست ۶۸ نفری ازهمین افراد دارم که اکنون می‌گویند چرا نرخ ارز افزایش یافته است. وی از کارشناسان و رسانه‌ها خواست با درک واقعیت‌های کشور، بپذیرند که ما نباید تفاوت نرخ ارز را به جیب دلال‌ها بریزیم. بهمنی همچنین گفت: آنها به جای انتقادها و فشار بر بانک مرکزی اگر ایده‌های بهتری دارند ارائه کنند تا استفاده شود. بهمنی با تاکید براینکه رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی به تنهایی تصمیم نمی گیرد بلکه با خرد جمعی و حضور شماری از وزیران و مسوولان کشور در شورای پول و اعتبار و با درنظرگرفتن همه جوانب تصمیمات گرفته می‌شود تا اشتباه در آن به حداقل برسد ،گفت : من صرفا به عنوان یک عضو وسخنگوی این شورا تصمیمات را اعلام می‌کنم. وی با بیان اینکه در تمام دنیا حداقل ۱۰ تا ۱۵ روز طول می‌کشد تا برخی سیاست‌های اقتصادی اثرگذار شود، افزود: نباید انتظار داشت یک شبه قیمت ارز کاهش یابد. بهمنی گفت: دلم می‌خواست حداقل ۵ نفر در کشور می‌گفتند عجب کار خوبی کردید که تفاوت ۱۵۰ تومانی نرخ ارز را به ۳۰ تا ۴۰ تومان کاهش دادید و واسطه‌ها را از میدان خارج کردید. رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی افزود: گاهی فکر می‌کنم دست واسطه‌ها در جاهایی ما را تحت فشار قرار می‌دهد و وقتی این فشار در مطبوعات منعکس می‌شود، آنها می‌خواهند ما را از این میدان خارج کنند تا به منافع گذشته شان همچنان دست داشته باشند.
دلار به ۱۱۶۰ تومان رسید
همچنین قیمت ارز و سکه در بازار روز پنجشنبه باز هم کاهشی بود. قیمت دلار آزاد آمریکا در پی کاسته شدن ۴۹ ریال دیگر از نرخ مرجع آن، با ۱۰ تومان کاهش به ۱۱۶۰ تومان رسید. نرخ مرجع دلار آمریکا روز پنجشنبه به ۱۰۹۱۱ ریال رسید. در مقابل یورو در بازار ارز کشور با وجود افت ارزش آن در بازار‌های جهانی، با ۵ تومان افزایش تا ۱۶۷۵ تومان بالا رفت. بازار سکه شاهد افت قیمت ۱۰۰۰ تومانی سکه آزاد و کاهش ۱۲۴۸ تومانی قیمت سکه دولتی بود. سکه در بازار ۴۴۳ هزارتومان و در شعب بانک ملی به ۴۴۴ هزار و ۸۰ تومان رسید.
بهای جهانی طلا در ۲ روز گذشته با کاهش تقریبا ۲۸ دلاری از رقم بسته شده ۱۵۴۸ دلاری روز چهارشنبه فروافتاده است. کاهش قیمت نفت در بازار‌های جهانی و فروش عمده طلا همزمان با تقویت ارزش دلار دلایل کاهش قیمت طلا عنوان شده است. روز گذشته تا ساعت ۳۰/۱۸ به وقت تهران قیمت جهانی طلا به ۱۵۱۸ دلار رسید.

چاپ خبر




 

 

لبنان بسوی خفقان سیاسی

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Lebanon in the Face of the Winds of Change

Fri, 24 June 2011
Husam Itani

 

The Lebanese should be concerned, and even fearful, over the remaining public freedoms and spaces to express one’s opinion.

This is not directly linked to the formation of the new government or the political and media campaigns launched against it by the new opposition. It is rather linked to a series of phenomena and escalating measures to which public life is being subjected, namely cultural and social life. Indeed, two movies were banned in less than a week. The first is Lebanese called “What Happened” regarding a massacre that took place in the Akkar region during the civil war, and the second is an Iranian movie called “Green Days” about the uprising demanding democracy which followed the Iranian presidential elections in 2009.

On the other hand, the Lebanese authorities reinforced the measures to prevent the entry of the refugees fleeing the oppression of the Syrian regime, but also to arrest those seeking security in Lebanon in a blunt defiance of all the pacts signed by the Lebanese government in regard to the protection of human rights. This behavior was accompanied by warnings from the deputies of the new majority, that each Lebanese citizen who helps a Syrian refugee will be considered a partner in the American-Israeli plot against the state of rejectionism in Syria.

But the relevant phenomena did not stop at this level, as those convened at Dar al-Fatwa issued a statement in which they announced their categorical rejection of a draft law sanctioning domestic violence against women, under the pretext that the draft was submitted by secular women’s associations based on “the savage principles of capitalism, market values and individualism.”

There is something distinguishing the aforementioned measures and events, leading each of them back to a specific political and social context for which the sides in the ruling coalition – regardless of the majority or minority in the government formation – are responsible. Indeed, there is no arguing about Hezbollah’s role and that of the March 8 forces in the prevention of the Syrian refugees from entering the country and the refusal to host international fact-finding committees to learn about the violations committed against the Syrian civilians. On the other hand, there is no doubt that the position of Dar al-Fatwa toward the draft law and before that, the slightly exaggerated position towards a violation committed by some Palestinians on lands affiliated with the Sunni endowments, stem from a feeling of encirclement, domination and threat prevailing over a wide faction of Sunnis. This is being expressed through excessive sensitivity toward anything that might feature a threat to the status and interests of the sect, even if the issue is related to helping poor Palestinian families get set.

It is believed there is one climate that produced all these steps and measures. It is a mixture of puzzlement and terror vis-à-vis the major changes which are being witnessed in the Arab world and are shedding light on the extent of the rottenness on the internal levels, and the expiry of the exploitation of foreign threats to uphold the oppression, tyranny and disregarding of the freedoms.

We could even go a step further and say that what Lebanon is witnessing today – in terms of the deterioration affecting public freedoms and the measures targeting foreign journalists – conveys an attempt by the system of the Lebanese sects to defend itself against the Arab revolutions. In the face of the freedom called for by these revolutions, the Lebanese are returning to repression. And in response to the demands to open up to the world, the Lebanese are pursuing their Syrian brothers among the refugees. Furthermore, in order to stop the massive media communication from which the Arab revolutions are benefitting, the institutions of the sectarian system have nothing to do but prohibit movies revealing the simple facts in regard to what the people of this part of the world have endured in terms of civil wars and the confiscation of opinions.

We believe that the Arab revolution is extending to Lebanon from these doors, and not from ones that were exploited by the leaders of the dominating sects

 

لبنان بین گزینه جنبش خیابانی یا تغیر دولت فعلی

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Lebanese Ironies

Fri, 24 June 2011
Walid Choucair

 

There are many ironies at play in Lebanon, a country of ironies to begin with.

These ironies are becoming more apparent, and this is made easier by the intersection between the crisis in the region, and particularly Syria, and the fluctuations in the domestic situation in Lebanon, between the government and the opposition, which is open to all possibilities.

In the country of ironies, a leading member of the new majority finds no embarrassment in threatening the leading member in the new opposition with putting him and his allies in prison. This coincides with the sponsor of this majority and its regional ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad, issuing a general amnesty as the result of advice from countries that are maintaining a non-hostile position on the Syrian regime. They advised him of the necessity of releasing opposition figures from prisons, while calls are mounting by Arab and non-Arab countries, made openly and implicitly, to halt the crackdown and pull the security forces, the army, and the Shabbiha gangs from the street.

Even if the Syrian opposition considered the amnesty for crimes committed before 20 June 2011 insufficient, or a type of maneuver, as a way of hinting that Damascus was responding to the Western and Arab calls to halt violence and head toward dialogue, the leaders in the coalition making up the government of Najib Miqati in Lebanon see no reason for any maneuvering in their confrontation with their local rivals. They are not interested in giving any consideration to the stance of the international community, or the Arab states, and find no embarrassment in declaring their intention to confront their opponents, to the end.

If Assad is serious and carries out what he has committed himself to, based on what various Syrian officials have said, namely being more lenient with the Syrian opposition, then the hard-line stance by Syria’s allies in Beirut against their opponents, and the escalation of the confrontation instead of moving toward dialogue, emphasizes this irony as well. The two developments, in any case, do not go together, but rather contradict each other. If the crisis in Syria and the fear of threats to the country’s stability necessitate a cooling-off in Lebanon, in view of the need to reduce the repercussions of this crisis for the domestic situation in Lebanon, what is the interest in seeing the new majority, or some members of it, declare this escalation?

Another irony is the following: How can one reconcile the statement by Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, that “we’ll forget that Europe is on the map,” with the efforts by the Lebanese prime minister, a close friend of the Syrian leadership, to prove his commitment to the best possible relations with the West, and his attempt to find a formula that satisfies the European Union, whose ambassadors asked the other day that “the Special Tribunal for Lebanon continue its work without obstacles, and in cooperation with the Lebanese authorities”?

If the new government must observe the requirements of the Syrian confrontation with Europe, can it forget the 220 million Euros that the EU provides to Lebanon in the form of loans and grants, while Syria suspends political geography, and while Miqati is making efforts to secure the cooperation of Europe and the US, out of a fear that Lebanon will be isolated?

Will the ironies in Lebanon lead to scenarios that resemble what is taking place in several Arab countries, among them Syria, namely seeing demonstrations led by the opposition? Such demonstrations protest what the leader of the Change and Reform Bloc, General Michel Aoun, looks set to obtain, by threatening imprisonment or exclusion, and this would lead to an “uprising,” not against the regime, as in Syria and other countries, but against the government and the forces holding power. What would happen if this scenario included the decision, by those who can make such a decision, to adopt a method of bloody confrontations that are taking place in several Arab countries, against protestors? This would be repeated in a country that prides itself on having no need for a revolution for freedom and democracy, as it has a pluralistic regime and already enjoys a considerable degree of freedom.

Logically, the opposition would not stand by idly if it is targeted.

If these ironies and scenarios indicate anything, it is this: It is not necessarily true that Lebanon can rest assured that it is isolated from the repercussions of the ongoing Arab uprisings and the political, security and popular unrest, because it has a different type of regime. This resting assured is opposed by some groups’ desire to move backward, by exercising power in a way that is at odds with the country’s particular characteristics. In this case, Lebanon’s acceptable level of democracy and high level of freedom, compared to its neighbors, expose the country to violations by domestic leaders who are attracted to these neighbors, instead of being a part of Lebanon’s fabric.

The Lebanese ironies and scenarios they generate might find an outlet in the new government, as a compensation for scenarios that involve the street, and they might bring down the coalition that causes them, if the same excesses continue.

 

عربستان بسوی ایجاد نیروی هسته ایی

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  • برای جبران مصرف داخلی انرژی عربستان بسوی دیگر گزینه ای انرژی از جمله انرژی هسته ایی میرود
  • JUNE 23, 2011

Rising Saudi Thirst for Oil Drives Plans to Go Nuclear

By ANGUS MCDOWALL

DUBAI—Rapid population growth, wastefulness and economic development are driving up Saudi Arabia’s thirst for energy, steadily reducing the amount of oil available for export and driving the kingdom’s interest in nuclear power.

By eating into its own oil supplies, Saudi Arabia risks reducing a formidable spare capacity that it could pump to counter disruptions to output elsewhere.

SAUDIPOWR

Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesOil minister Ali al-Naimi, shown in January, said this month that Saudi Arabia would boost oil output.

SAUDIPOWR

SAUDIPOWR

Spare capacity is also a potential weapon in the kingdom’s efforts to keep Iran in check, senior royal Prince Turki al-Faisal said in comments this month reported by The Wall Street Journal. Prince Turki also implied that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia would be forced to follow suit—a scenario that shadows Saudi nuclear-energy plans.

The Saudi government has said it will present a comprehensive energy strategy later this year. Prince Turki said the kingdom was working on developing wind, solar and nuclear sources to avoid sapping oil exports.

But a culture of consumption remains. From dairy farms that run air conditioning for tens of thousands of cows to the Middle East’s largest fleet of private jets, the world’s leading exporter of crude oil is burning more and more energy.

Domestic subsidies keep fuel prices low and give citizens and companies no incentive to cut back.

Peak-time power demand—fueled largely with crude oil—rose by 10% last year, according to the country’s deputy electricity minister.

Some economists say that if Saudi Arabia’s current energy-consumption growth rate of 7% a year continues unabated, the kingdom within 20 years will burn the equivalent of almost all its recent daily output—more than eight million barrels a day—or around two-thirds its total production capacity.

“They’re really within, just mathematically, 20 years of having very little oil to export,” said Brad Bourland, chief economist of Jadwa Investment in Riyadh. “I think it’s a very significant medium-term challenge for them in how they turn it around.”

Saudi officials, and some analysts, have lower projections for consumption growth.

A year ago, Khalid al-Falih, chief executive of state energy producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco, said that if left unchecked domestic energy consumption would sap three million barrels a day from crude available for export by 2028. Those numbers are still viewed as correct, Saudi officials said.

Until this year, some analysts believed the kingdom would slash subsidies to slow consumption. The cost of Saudi Arabia’s energy subsidies was second only to Iran’s in 2009, at around $35 billion, or a tenth of Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product, according to BP Co. PLC. But after unrest shook other Arab states, the ruling al Saud family began pouring nearly $100 billion into the economy to make life cheaper and easier for most citizens.

“As an economist, I say if you want to slow that growth of energy consumption, raise prices,” said Mr. Bourland. “Saudi Arabia pays a very large opportunity cost by not selling oil outside, where it makes a gigantic profit.”

“There was a recognition in the past year or so that demand was growing too fast and they needed to get a handle on it. But now they have to shore up support through cheaper prices,” said Jamie Webster, senior manager at the market intelligence service at PFC consultants in Washington.

The government has been looking more closely at atomic energy. Last year, the government set up the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, or KA-CARE, to formulate policy on nuclear power.

An agreement with French nuclear developer Areva SA soon followed, leading to expectations the kingdom is considering one or more nuclear plants.

Saudi Arabia will unveil a national energy policy this year outlining how much electricity is to be produced by nuclear plants, and in what time frame, said a KA-CARE spokesman.

“Saudi Arabia’s well behind the curve in getting into nuclear generation, but I’d anticipate they do need to move forward on this,” said PFC’s Mr. Webster.

[SAUDIPOWER]

New safety concerns arising as a result of the crisis at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant haven’t put a crimp in the kingdom’s energy strategy, a Saudi offical said.

Other options are limited. Electricity plants face stiff competition from petrochemical factories in buying the kingdom’s limited quantities of natural gas. Saudi Aramco is raising its natural-gas production levels, but it has struggled to locate new gas fields after several years of dedicated exploration.

A Saudi official said Saudi Electricity Company was burning 1.1 million barrels a day of crude oil in power stations. Oil analysts say that figure rises during Saudi Arabia’s sweltering summer months.

The electricity ministry said it hopes to cut consumption with efficiency measures, including improvements to power stations and new standards for air conditioning units. But with demand rising so quickly, they can at best delay the problem.

The kingdom says it now has a production capacity of around 12.5 million barrels a day. Officials have previously set an eventual target of 15 million barrels a day of maximum sustainable output capacity, but haven’t recently said they are contemplating an increase from the current level.

 

عراق رقیب آینده عربستان در نفت

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تولید نفت  در عراق  با چنان شتابی رشد میکند که از ظرفیت پمپ ها و خطوط لوله عراق پیشی دارد. این اعتقاد وجود دارد که عراق تا سال ۲۰۱۷ رقیب عربستان سعودی خواهد شد

 

Iraq struggles to boost oil production

Nabil al-Jurani/ASSOCIATED PRESS – Oil workers work at Zubair oil field near Basra, 550 kilometers (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad, Iraq, Sunday, May 15, 2011.

By Aaron C. Davis, Published: June ۲۳

RUMAILA OIL FIELD, Iraq — Here in Iraq’s southern desert, efforts to boost oil production have pushed the country’s dilapidated oil infrastructure to the brink.

Rusted pipelines are running full and are in danger of rupturing on the floor of the Persian Gulf. Rickety pumps seize and spring leaks in the heat. The entire network meant to get oil from fields to tankers is maxed out and prone to backups that cause permanent damage to wells.

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Iraqi leaders travel here to use the backdrop of roaring flames from oil-well flares to illustrate a dramatically different point. By the numbers, Iraq’s oil industry is red-hot. Production is on pace to be the best in more than 20 years, since the beginning of the Persian Gulf War of 1991, and the money is rolling in. In the first five months of 2011, rising exports and high oil prices have all but erased Iraq’s full-year deficit of more than $12 billion.

As Iraq has bogged down in so many other areas, it has gone full throttle when it comes to oil. Its trajectory to raise oil profits has been audacious and at times dangerous.

Pushing its systems to capacity is the first phase of an outsize plan to increase production fivefold, and by 2017, to rival Saudi Arabia as the largest exporter of oil in the Middle East.

Iraq’s announcement of that plan two years ago attracted little attention, other than skepticism from most industry watchers. But in hot pursuit of that goal since, Iraq has been moving quickly and in some ways recklessly.

Despite pleas from the United States and other international observers, for example, it has not yet signed contracts for how to contain a spill or conduct emergency repairs should its roughly 35-year-old pipelines burst underwater.

Scientists believe the 31-mile pipeline used most heavily to send oil to offshore loading docks has in places nearly entirely disintegrated, leaving only an outer ring of concrete tunneling oil in the right direction.

The pipeline, considered a top terrorist target in the region, is so fragile that Iraq has not dared conduct a pressure test to see how much it can handle. But it has continued to pump nearly all of its growing exports through the line.

More than a dozen multibillion-dollar contracts that Iraq signed with international oil companies also now appear to have been done in haste. Nearly all are in need of renegotiation, less than two years after they were signed, Iraqi officials and industry analysts said.

Iraq structured most of the deals in such a way that it could be impossible for most companies to realize the profits they were counting on unless Iraq reaches its goal on paper to rival Saudi Arabia. New deals are likely to have to include better terms for oil companies at the expense of country profits, Iraqi officials and industry analysts said.

Iraqi officials still have high hopes that their country might one day rival their southern neighbor. But Iraqi officials have begun to acknowledge the dream remains far out of reach. Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul-Kareem Luaibi this month began inching toward acceptance of an industry consensus that Iraq might be able to accomplish half of Saudi Arabia’s output, or less, over a much longer time frame.

 

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  • “The Iraqi government bit off more than it could chew. It was proposing to do in seven years what it took the Saudis 70 years under a much more benign set of circumstances,” said Raad Alkadiri, a country risk specialist for PFC Energy who returned recently from Iraq. “You can put on paper the biggest project you like, but that requires a much more functional administrative process than exists right now.”

Iraq’s lowered sights on oil typifies a problem still common across the country. With Iraq’s government and security situation still evolving, marrying Iraqis’ grand ambitions, intense national pride and nascent capabilities remains no easy task for its leaders. The timeline for progress in almost every arena continues to slide invariably to the right.

 

But a forced revision on oil comes on no bigger stage. It diminishes any hope that Iraq could soon tilt the needle lower on worldwide oil prices. Markets analysts, who had remained skeptical of Iraq’s production promises, have yet to build most of them into expected future oil prices. But with the second-biggest reserves in the world, Iraq remains a wildcard capable of easing global demand and reducing prices.

Iraq has already signed a contract with an Australian company to replace its most dangerous underwater pipeline by the end of 2012. That alone will not increase production because the old pipeline is scheduled to be retired when the new one is complete. But a second new pipeline and pumping station could come online by 2013.

Under a best-case scenario, analysts say, Iraq could hit 4.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2013, and then it would probably take several more years to significantly increase production further.

Still, such an increase would be no small feat and could continue to have profound effects domestically for Iraq in coming years.

In recent years, as the global recession plunged nearly every government budget into the red, rising oil profits put Iraq on a different path. In each of the past five years, it forecast a year-end deficit but ended up instead with a perennial surplus.

Iraq is producing nearly 2.7 million barrels per day, up 15 percent from this time a year ago.

The ambitious goal it set was to reach 12 million barrels per day by 2017. Luaibi said this month that Iraq may eventually plateau at a much lower volume, of about 7 million or 8 million, and for twice as long.

U.S. officials have even lower expectations. In its latest forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted Iraq’s output will remain below 4 million barrels per day at the end of the decade.

Even in that scenario, however, the corresponding rise in profits could swell Iraq’s annual budget to well over $100 billion.

Iraqi parliament member Ahmed al-Alwani, who heads the branch’s economics committee, said any increase in production now amounts to Iraq having more income than it ever had previously. The problem is, he said, at least for the next decade or so, no amount will ever be enough to pay for rebuilding Iraq.

“Everyone focuses on the revenue and how much money [oil] can bring in, but the needs are even much greater,” he said.

 

 

در زندانهای میهنمان حکم اسلام حکومتی پیاده میشود

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مقامات زندانها به بزهکاران حرفه ایی کاندوم میدهند تا به فعالین سیاسی تجاوز کنند

 

notorious prison

Iranians opposition supporters 

Oppostition protests in 2009 – political activists have accused the intelligence ministry and the revolutionary guards of harassing inmates with sexual assaults. Photograph: Reuters

Prison guards in Iran are giving condoms to criminals and encouraging them to systematically rape young opposition activists locked up with them, according to accounts from inside the country’s jail system.

A series of dramatic letters written by prisoners and families of imprisoned activists allege that authorities are intentionally facilitating mass rape and using it as a form of punishment.

Mehdi Mahmoudian, an outspoken member of Iran’s Participation Front, a reformist political party, is among those prisoners who have succeeded in smuggling out letters revealing the extent of rape inside some of the most notorious prisons.

Mahmoudian was arrested in the aftermath of Iran’s 2009 disputed presidential election for speaking to the press about the regime’s suppression of the movement and is currently in Rajaeeshahr prison in Karaj, a city 12 miles (20km) to the west of the capital, Tehran.

“In various cells inside the prison, rape has become a common act and acceptable,” he wrote in a letter published on Kaleme.com, the official website of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.

According to Mahmoudian and letters published on various opposition websites, political prisoners are locked up with some of the most dangerous criminals – murderers and ex-members of armed gangs.

Meanwhile, 26 prominent political activists who have been in jail since the 2009 election have written to an official prison monitoring body accusing the government’s intelligence ministry and the revolutionary guards of harassing inmates with unlawful tactics that included sexual assaults.

Mohsen Aminzadeh, a senior deputy foreign minister, Mohsen Mirdamadi, a leader of a reformist party and Behzad Nabavi, a veteran activist are among those who put their signatures on the letter.

Speaking to Jaras, a website run by opposition activists, families of political prisoners have alleged that prison guards are failing to protect them from rape or sexual assault.

“During exercise periods, the strong ask for sex without any consideration. Criminals are repeatedly seen with condoms in hand, hunting for their victims,” an unnamed family member told Jaras.

“If the inmate is not powerful enough or guards would not take care of him, he will be certainly raped. Prison guards ignore those who are seen with condoms simply because they were given out to them by the guards at first place,” the family member said.

The family members say prison guards are turning a blind eye to the systematic rape and have ignored complaints made by rape victims.

Amnesty International, which has documented rape inside Iran’s prisons and interviewed victims for a 2010 report, called on Iran to launch an investigation into the recent allegations.

Kristyan Benedict, Amnesty International UK’s Middle East campaign manager, told the Guardian: “Rape is a terrible crime and these allegations [mentioned in the letters] should be thoroughly investigated. Amnesty International has also documented the rape of male and female detainees by security officials. Many of those detained for taking part in post-election protests were tortured and did not receive fair trials. The Iranian authorities still continue to punish and persecute those who peacefully speak up against them.”

According to Mahmoudian, who has been transferred to a solitary confinement after his letter attracted attention, one young prisoner was raped seven times in a single night.

“In [Rajaeeshahr] prison, those who have pretty faces and are unable to defend themselves or cannot afford to bribe others are forcibly taken to different cells each night [to be raped],” he writes.

“The situation is such that those exposed to rape even have an owner and that owner makes money by renting him out to others and after a while selling him to someone else.”

Rape victims in Iran usually stay quiet in order to protect the honour of their family but at the time when journalists based in the country are facing strict restrictions, these letters have become one of the only sources of information about the situation of hundreds of imprisoned activists.

Iranian officials have ignored the allegations and have previously denied any claims of rape inside jail.

هند و انها را تشویق میکنند تا به فعالین سیاسی تجاوز کنند

ننگت باد این رهبر بزهکاران!

 

 

بمب نرم افزاری آژانس

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یک نظر با مبنا گیری عرضه و تقاضا

 

بمب نرم افزاردانه آژانس جهانی انرژی بیشتر به یک بمب نرم افزارانه شبیه است تا بمب اتمی

IEA’s move more of a smart bomb than the nuclear option

By Javier Blas, Commodities Editor

Does the International Energy Agency know something that the market ignores?

The release of the strategic petroleum reserve is prompting questions in the market. True, Libya oil production is out-of-action; refineries are demanding more oil as we move into the second half of the year, and high oil prices are affecting economic growth. All of that is plainly evident to the market. Yet, it appears that there is something more.

For the critics, that something more is political interest.

The White House – and European governments – were concerned about losing votes due to high petrol prices. Other argue that the release is a response to the collapse of the meeting of the Opec cartel earlier this month. I think factor is relevant as background, but also that there is more to it than that.

The more to it is not a secret that the IEA is keeping close to its chest and the market ignores. I just think that the agency is putting more emphasis on some evident problems it sees lying ahead: the first one is the outage in Libya, the second is the health of demand.

On Libya, the release indicates that the country’s oil production is not going to recover any time soon. The north African nation pumped around 1.6m barrels a day of high quality light, sweet oil before the start of the civil war around 100 days ago. Since then, production has fallen to just 200,000 b/d. Even if the war were to finish today, production would not recover for months. The outage has already been long enough to inflict damage on the oil wells, some of which would need to be redrilled to recover. That would take time. So the release is clearly telling the market “forget about Libya for the rest of the year. If not longer”. Moreover, London, Paris and other capitals involved in the conflict probably have indicated to the IEA that the chances of a military or political solution over the short term are minimal, further delaying the return of oil production.

The health of demand is another key factor. True, economic growth in the US and Europe is slowing down, and so is oil demand growth there. But at the same time consumption growth remains robust in the rest of the world. The IEA hinted at this factor during a conference call with reporters on Thursday. In particular, it noted that some of the production boost by Saudi Arabia – which has brought oil output to mo