Archive for: June 2011

چقدر دلار به بازار تزریق شد؟

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رمزگشایی رییس کل بانک مرکزی

چقدر دلار تزریق شد؟

دنیا‌ی‌اقتصاد- رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی با بیان اینکه هر ۱۰ دلار افزایش قیمت نفت، ۷ میلیارد درآمدهای نفتی کشور را افزایش می‌دهد، اعلام کرد بانک مرکزی از محل افزایش نرخ ارز طی هفته‌های گذشته، ۲۹۰ میلیارد تومان به حساب خزانه واریز کرده است. با احتساب اینکه دوهفته از افزایش ناگهانی نرخ ارز می‌گذرد و با توجه به افزایش ۱۰۰ تومانی نرخ ارز مرجع درآمد اعلام شده از سوی بهمنی، برآورد می‌شود حدود ۳ میلیارد دلار ارز از سوی بانک مرکزی به بازار تزریق شده است.

رمزگشایی آقای رییس کل
چقدر دلار تزریق شد؟
گروه بازار پول- رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی با اشاره به تبعات افزایش نرخ ارز در چند هفته گذشته گفت: دو هزار و ۹۰۰ میلیارد ریال از محل افزایش نرخ ارز عاید دولت شد. به گزارش پایگاه اطلاع‌رسانی دولت، محمود بهمنی با تاکید بر اینکه دولت به‌دنبال درآمد از طریق افزایش نرخ ارز نبوده است، اضافه کرد: به دنبال افزایش نرخ ارز بانک مرکزی تلاش کرد با تنظیم این بازار و حذف فاصله ایجاد شده میان نرخ آزاد و مرجع در بازار مداخله کند که این مداخله  موجب شد دو هزار و ۹۰۰ میلیارد ریال به خزانه کشور واریز شود.
قیمت دلار رسمی در ۱۸ خرداد بیش از ۱۰۰ تومان افزایش یافت، با توجه به آنکه بانک مرکزی هر هفته ۵/۱ میلیارد دلار ارز به بازار تزریق می‌کند به نظر می‌رسد سود ۲۹۰ میلیارد تومانی با عرضه ۳ میلیارد دلار از ذخایر بانک مرکزی به دست آمده است.رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی با بیان اینکه توان کشور برای مدیریت بازار ارز بالا است، گفت: هر ۱۰ دلار افزایش قیمت نفت، ۷ میلیارد دلار درآمدهای نفتی کشور را افزایش می‌دهد. بهمنی گفت: مجلس شورای اسلامی بانک مرکزی را از افزایش دارایی‌های خارجی منع کرده و این بدان معناست که باید این دارایی‌ها تزریق شود و بخشی از این منابع به صورت طبیعی به گشایش اعتبارات اسنادی در می‌آید. وی گفت :از طرفی این منابع فرصت مناسبی را برای مدیریت نرخ ارز برای بانک مرکزی فراهم کرده است و چون کمبودی نداریم به راحتی می‌توانیم عملیات مدیریت نرخ ارز را انجام دهیم. رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی با بیان اینکه اگر دست ما از ارزهای خارجی پر نبود، برای تنظیم بازار ارز وارد عمل نمی شدیم، گفت: اضافه قیمت نفت که در بودجه تعیین شده است باید به حساب خزانه واریز شود، به عبارت دیگر وقتی قیمت نفت از ۵/۸۱ به ۱۲۰ دلار در هر بشکه می‌رسد و میانگین آن به ۱۱۲ دلار می‌رسد، درآمد کشور هم متناسب با آن افزایش یافته است. بهمنی با انتقاد از برخی افراد که تا چندی پیش از پایین بودن نرخ ارز گلایه مند بودند و مقاله منتشر می‌کردند، افزود: فهرست ۶۸ نفری ازهمین افراد دارم که اکنون می‌گویند چرا نرخ ارز افزایش یافته است. وی از کارشناسان و رسانه‌ها خواست با درک واقعیت‌های کشور، بپذیرند که ما نباید تفاوت نرخ ارز را به جیب دلال‌ها بریزیم. بهمنی همچنین گفت: آنها به جای انتقادها و فشار بر بانک مرکزی اگر ایده‌های بهتری دارند ارائه کنند تا استفاده شود. بهمنی با تاکید براینکه رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی به تنهایی تصمیم نمی گیرد بلکه با خرد جمعی و حضور شماری از وزیران و مسوولان کشور در شورای پول و اعتبار و با درنظرگرفتن همه جوانب تصمیمات گرفته می‌شود تا اشتباه در آن به حداقل برسد ،گفت : من صرفا به عنوان یک عضو وسخنگوی این شورا تصمیمات را اعلام می‌کنم. وی با بیان اینکه در تمام دنیا حداقل ۱۰ تا ۱۵ روز طول می‌کشد تا برخی سیاست‌های اقتصادی اثرگذار شود، افزود: نباید انتظار داشت یک شبه قیمت ارز کاهش یابد. بهمنی گفت: دلم می‌خواست حداقل ۵ نفر در کشور می‌گفتند عجب کار خوبی کردید که تفاوت ۱۵۰ تومانی نرخ ارز را به ۳۰ تا ۴۰ تومان کاهش دادید و واسطه‌ها را از میدان خارج کردید. رییس‌کل بانک مرکزی افزود: گاهی فکر می‌کنم دست واسطه‌ها در جاهایی ما را تحت فشار قرار می‌دهد و وقتی این فشار در مطبوعات منعکس می‌شود، آنها می‌خواهند ما را از این میدان خارج کنند تا به منافع گذشته شان همچنان دست داشته باشند.
دلار به ۱۱۶۰ تومان رسید
همچنین قیمت ارز و سکه در بازار روز پنجشنبه باز هم کاهشی بود. قیمت دلار آزاد آمریکا در پی کاسته شدن ۴۹ ریال دیگر از نرخ مرجع آن، با ۱۰ تومان کاهش به ۱۱۶۰ تومان رسید. نرخ مرجع دلار آمریکا روز پنجشنبه به ۱۰۹۱۱ ریال رسید. در مقابل یورو در بازار ارز کشور با وجود افت ارزش آن در بازار‌های جهانی، با ۵ تومان افزایش تا ۱۶۷۵ تومان بالا رفت. بازار سکه شاهد افت قیمت ۱۰۰۰ تومانی سکه آزاد و کاهش ۱۲۴۸ تومانی قیمت سکه دولتی بود. سکه در بازار ۴۴۳ هزارتومان و در شعب بانک ملی به ۴۴۴ هزار و ۸۰ تومان رسید.
بهای جهانی طلا در ۲ روز گذشته با کاهش تقریبا ۲۸ دلاری از رقم بسته شده ۱۵۴۸ دلاری روز چهارشنبه فروافتاده است. کاهش قیمت نفت در بازار‌های جهانی و فروش عمده طلا همزمان با تقویت ارزش دلار دلایل کاهش قیمت طلا عنوان شده است. روز گذشته تا ساعت ۳۰/۱۸ به وقت تهران قیمت جهانی طلا به ۱۵۱۸ دلار رسید.

چاپ خبر




 

 

لبنان بسوی خفقان سیاسی

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Lebanon in the Face of the Winds of Change

Fri, 24 June 2011
Husam Itani

 

The Lebanese should be concerned, and even fearful, over the remaining public freedoms and spaces to express one’s opinion.

This is not directly linked to the formation of the new government or the political and media campaigns launched against it by the new opposition. It is rather linked to a series of phenomena and escalating measures to which public life is being subjected, namely cultural and social life. Indeed, two movies were banned in less than a week. The first is Lebanese called “What Happened” regarding a massacre that took place in the Akkar region during the civil war, and the second is an Iranian movie called “Green Days” about the uprising demanding democracy which followed the Iranian presidential elections in 2009.

On the other hand, the Lebanese authorities reinforced the measures to prevent the entry of the refugees fleeing the oppression of the Syrian regime, but also to arrest those seeking security in Lebanon in a blunt defiance of all the pacts signed by the Lebanese government in regard to the protection of human rights. This behavior was accompanied by warnings from the deputies of the new majority, that each Lebanese citizen who helps a Syrian refugee will be considered a partner in the American-Israeli plot against the state of rejectionism in Syria.

But the relevant phenomena did not stop at this level, as those convened at Dar al-Fatwa issued a statement in which they announced their categorical rejection of a draft law sanctioning domestic violence against women, under the pretext that the draft was submitted by secular women’s associations based on “the savage principles of capitalism, market values and individualism.”

There is something distinguishing the aforementioned measures and events, leading each of them back to a specific political and social context for which the sides in the ruling coalition – regardless of the majority or minority in the government formation – are responsible. Indeed, there is no arguing about Hezbollah’s role and that of the March 8 forces in the prevention of the Syrian refugees from entering the country and the refusal to host international fact-finding committees to learn about the violations committed against the Syrian civilians. On the other hand, there is no doubt that the position of Dar al-Fatwa toward the draft law and before that, the slightly exaggerated position towards a violation committed by some Palestinians on lands affiliated with the Sunni endowments, stem from a feeling of encirclement, domination and threat prevailing over a wide faction of Sunnis. This is being expressed through excessive sensitivity toward anything that might feature a threat to the status and interests of the sect, even if the issue is related to helping poor Palestinian families get set.

It is believed there is one climate that produced all these steps and measures. It is a mixture of puzzlement and terror vis-à-vis the major changes which are being witnessed in the Arab world and are shedding light on the extent of the rottenness on the internal levels, and the expiry of the exploitation of foreign threats to uphold the oppression, tyranny and disregarding of the freedoms.

We could even go a step further and say that what Lebanon is witnessing today – in terms of the deterioration affecting public freedoms and the measures targeting foreign journalists – conveys an attempt by the system of the Lebanese sects to defend itself against the Arab revolutions. In the face of the freedom called for by these revolutions, the Lebanese are returning to repression. And in response to the demands to open up to the world, the Lebanese are pursuing their Syrian brothers among the refugees. Furthermore, in order to stop the massive media communication from which the Arab revolutions are benefitting, the institutions of the sectarian system have nothing to do but prohibit movies revealing the simple facts in regard to what the people of this part of the world have endured in terms of civil wars and the confiscation of opinions.

We believe that the Arab revolution is extending to Lebanon from these doors, and not from ones that were exploited by the leaders of the dominating sects

 

لبنان بین گزینه جنبش خیابانی یا تغیر دولت فعلی

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Lebanese Ironies

Fri, 24 June 2011
Walid Choucair

 

There are many ironies at play in Lebanon, a country of ironies to begin with.

These ironies are becoming more apparent, and this is made easier by the intersection between the crisis in the region, and particularly Syria, and the fluctuations in the domestic situation in Lebanon, between the government and the opposition, which is open to all possibilities.

In the country of ironies, a leading member of the new majority finds no embarrassment in threatening the leading member in the new opposition with putting him and his allies in prison. This coincides with the sponsor of this majority and its regional ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad, issuing a general amnesty as the result of advice from countries that are maintaining a non-hostile position on the Syrian regime. They advised him of the necessity of releasing opposition figures from prisons, while calls are mounting by Arab and non-Arab countries, made openly and implicitly, to halt the crackdown and pull the security forces, the army, and the Shabbiha gangs from the street.

Even if the Syrian opposition considered the amnesty for crimes committed before 20 June 2011 insufficient, or a type of maneuver, as a way of hinting that Damascus was responding to the Western and Arab calls to halt violence and head toward dialogue, the leaders in the coalition making up the government of Najib Miqati in Lebanon see no reason for any maneuvering in their confrontation with their local rivals. They are not interested in giving any consideration to the stance of the international community, or the Arab states, and find no embarrassment in declaring their intention to confront their opponents, to the end.

If Assad is serious and carries out what he has committed himself to, based on what various Syrian officials have said, namely being more lenient with the Syrian opposition, then the hard-line stance by Syria’s allies in Beirut against their opponents, and the escalation of the confrontation instead of moving toward dialogue, emphasizes this irony as well. The two developments, in any case, do not go together, but rather contradict each other. If the crisis in Syria and the fear of threats to the country’s stability necessitate a cooling-off in Lebanon, in view of the need to reduce the repercussions of this crisis for the domestic situation in Lebanon, what is the interest in seeing the new majority, or some members of it, declare this escalation?

Another irony is the following: How can one reconcile the statement by Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, that “we’ll forget that Europe is on the map,” with the efforts by the Lebanese prime minister, a close friend of the Syrian leadership, to prove his commitment to the best possible relations with the West, and his attempt to find a formula that satisfies the European Union, whose ambassadors asked the other day that “the Special Tribunal for Lebanon continue its work without obstacles, and in cooperation with the Lebanese authorities”?

If the new government must observe the requirements of the Syrian confrontation with Europe, can it forget the 220 million Euros that the EU provides to Lebanon in the form of loans and grants, while Syria suspends political geography, and while Miqati is making efforts to secure the cooperation of Europe and the US, out of a fear that Lebanon will be isolated?

Will the ironies in Lebanon lead to scenarios that resemble what is taking place in several Arab countries, among them Syria, namely seeing demonstrations led by the opposition? Such demonstrations protest what the leader of the Change and Reform Bloc, General Michel Aoun, looks set to obtain, by threatening imprisonment or exclusion, and this would lead to an “uprising,” not against the regime, as in Syria and other countries, but against the government and the forces holding power. What would happen if this scenario included the decision, by those who can make such a decision, to adopt a method of bloody confrontations that are taking place in several Arab countries, against protestors? This would be repeated in a country that prides itself on having no need for a revolution for freedom and democracy, as it has a pluralistic regime and already enjoys a considerable degree of freedom.

Logically, the opposition would not stand by idly if it is targeted.

If these ironies and scenarios indicate anything, it is this: It is not necessarily true that Lebanon can rest assured that it is isolated from the repercussions of the ongoing Arab uprisings and the political, security and popular unrest, because it has a different type of regime. This resting assured is opposed by some groups’ desire to move backward, by exercising power in a way that is at odds with the country’s particular characteristics. In this case, Lebanon’s acceptable level of democracy and high level of freedom, compared to its neighbors, expose the country to violations by domestic leaders who are attracted to these neighbors, instead of being a part of Lebanon’s fabric.

The Lebanese ironies and scenarios they generate might find an outlet in the new government, as a compensation for scenarios that involve the street, and they might bring down the coalition that causes them, if the same excesses continue.

 

عربستان بسوی ایجاد نیروی هسته ایی

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  • برای جبران مصرف داخلی انرژی عربستان بسوی دیگر گزینه ای انرژی از جمله انرژی هسته ایی میرود
  • JUNE 23, 2011

Rising Saudi Thirst for Oil Drives Plans to Go Nuclear

By ANGUS MCDOWALL

DUBAI—Rapid population growth, wastefulness and economic development are driving up Saudi Arabia’s thirst for energy, steadily reducing the amount of oil available for export and driving the kingdom’s interest in nuclear power.

By eating into its own oil supplies, Saudi Arabia risks reducing a formidable spare capacity that it could pump to counter disruptions to output elsewhere.

SAUDIPOWR

Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesOil minister Ali al-Naimi, shown in January, said this month that Saudi Arabia would boost oil output.

SAUDIPOWR

SAUDIPOWR

Spare capacity is also a potential weapon in the kingdom’s efforts to keep Iran in check, senior royal Prince Turki al-Faisal said in comments this month reported by The Wall Street Journal. Prince Turki also implied that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia would be forced to follow suit—a scenario that shadows Saudi nuclear-energy plans.

The Saudi government has said it will present a comprehensive energy strategy later this year. Prince Turki said the kingdom was working on developing wind, solar and nuclear sources to avoid sapping oil exports.

But a culture of consumption remains. From dairy farms that run air conditioning for tens of thousands of cows to the Middle East’s largest fleet of private jets, the world’s leading exporter of crude oil is burning more and more energy.

Domestic subsidies keep fuel prices low and give citizens and companies no incentive to cut back.

Peak-time power demand—fueled largely with crude oil—rose by 10% last year, according to the country’s deputy electricity minister.

Some economists say that if Saudi Arabia’s current energy-consumption growth rate of 7% a year continues unabated, the kingdom within 20 years will burn the equivalent of almost all its recent daily output—more than eight million barrels a day—or around two-thirds its total production capacity.

“They’re really within, just mathematically, 20 years of having very little oil to export,” said Brad Bourland, chief economist of Jadwa Investment in Riyadh. “I think it’s a very significant medium-term challenge for them in how they turn it around.”

Saudi officials, and some analysts, have lower projections for consumption growth.

A year ago, Khalid al-Falih, chief executive of state energy producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco, said that if left unchecked domestic energy consumption would sap three million barrels a day from crude available for export by 2028. Those numbers are still viewed as correct, Saudi officials said.

Until this year, some analysts believed the kingdom would slash subsidies to slow consumption. The cost of Saudi Arabia’s energy subsidies was second only to Iran’s in 2009, at around $35 billion, or a tenth of Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product, according to BP Co. PLC. But after unrest shook other Arab states, the ruling al Saud family began pouring nearly $100 billion into the economy to make life cheaper and easier for most citizens.

“As an economist, I say if you want to slow that growth of energy consumption, raise prices,” said Mr. Bourland. “Saudi Arabia pays a very large opportunity cost by not selling oil outside, where it makes a gigantic profit.”

“There was a recognition in the past year or so that demand was growing too fast and they needed to get a handle on it. But now they have to shore up support through cheaper prices,” said Jamie Webster, senior manager at the market intelligence service at PFC consultants in Washington.

The government has been looking more closely at atomic energy. Last year, the government set up the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, or KA-CARE, to formulate policy on nuclear power.

An agreement with French nuclear developer Areva SA soon followed, leading to expectations the kingdom is considering one or more nuclear plants.

Saudi Arabia will unveil a national energy policy this year outlining how much electricity is to be produced by nuclear plants, and in what time frame, said a KA-CARE spokesman.

“Saudi Arabia’s well behind the curve in getting into nuclear generation, but I’d anticipate they do need to move forward on this,” said PFC’s Mr. Webster.

[SAUDIPOWER]

New safety concerns arising as a result of the crisis at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant haven’t put a crimp in the kingdom’s energy strategy, a Saudi offical said.

Other options are limited. Electricity plants face stiff competition from petrochemical factories in buying the kingdom’s limited quantities of natural gas. Saudi Aramco is raising its natural-gas production levels, but it has struggled to locate new gas fields after several years of dedicated exploration.

A Saudi official said Saudi Electricity Company was burning 1.1 million barrels a day of crude oil in power stations. Oil analysts say that figure rises during Saudi Arabia’s sweltering summer months.

The electricity ministry said it hopes to cut consumption with efficiency measures, including improvements to power stations and new standards for air conditioning units. But with demand rising so quickly, they can at best delay the problem.

The kingdom says it now has a production capacity of around 12.5 million barrels a day. Officials have previously set an eventual target of 15 million barrels a day of maximum sustainable output capacity, but haven’t recently said they are contemplating an increase from the current level.

 

عراق رقیب آینده عربستان در نفت

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تولید نفت  در عراق  با چنان شتابی رشد میکند که از ظرفیت پمپ ها و خطوط لوله عراق پیشی دارد. این اعتقاد وجود دارد که عراق تا سال ۲۰۱۷ رقیب عربستان سعودی خواهد شد

 

Iraq struggles to boost oil production

Nabil al-Jurani/ASSOCIATED PRESS – Oil workers work at Zubair oil field near Basra, 550 kilometers (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad, Iraq, Sunday, May 15, 2011.

By Aaron C. Davis, Published: June ۲۳

RUMAILA OIL FIELD, Iraq — Here in Iraq’s southern desert, efforts to boost oil production have pushed the country’s dilapidated oil infrastructure to the brink.

Rusted pipelines are running full and are in danger of rupturing on the floor of the Persian Gulf. Rickety pumps seize and spring leaks in the heat. The entire network meant to get oil from fields to tankers is maxed out and prone to backups that cause permanent damage to wells.

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Iraqi leaders travel here to use the backdrop of roaring flames from oil-well flares to illustrate a dramatically different point. By the numbers, Iraq’s oil industry is red-hot. Production is on pace to be the best in more than 20 years, since the beginning of the Persian Gulf War of 1991, and the money is rolling in. In the first five months of 2011, rising exports and high oil prices have all but erased Iraq’s full-year deficit of more than $12 billion.

As Iraq has bogged down in so many other areas, it has gone full throttle when it comes to oil. Its trajectory to raise oil profits has been audacious and at times dangerous.

Pushing its systems to capacity is the first phase of an outsize plan to increase production fivefold, and by 2017, to rival Saudi Arabia as the largest exporter of oil in the Middle East.

Iraq’s announcement of that plan two years ago attracted little attention, other than skepticism from most industry watchers. But in hot pursuit of that goal since, Iraq has been moving quickly and in some ways recklessly.

Despite pleas from the United States and other international observers, for example, it has not yet signed contracts for how to contain a spill or conduct emergency repairs should its roughly 35-year-old pipelines burst underwater.

Scientists believe the 31-mile pipeline used most heavily to send oil to offshore loading docks has in places nearly entirely disintegrated, leaving only an outer ring of concrete tunneling oil in the right direction.

The pipeline, considered a top terrorist target in the region, is so fragile that Iraq has not dared conduct a pressure test to see how much it can handle. But it has continued to pump nearly all of its growing exports through the line.

More than a dozen multibillion-dollar contracts that Iraq signed with international oil companies also now appear to have been done in haste. Nearly all are in need of renegotiation, less than two years after they were signed, Iraqi officials and industry analysts said.

Iraq structured most of the deals in such a way that it could be impossible for most companies to realize the profits they were counting on unless Iraq reaches its goal on paper to rival Saudi Arabia. New deals are likely to have to include better terms for oil companies at the expense of country profits, Iraqi officials and industry analysts said.

Iraqi officials still have high hopes that their country might one day rival their southern neighbor. But Iraqi officials have begun to acknowledge the dream remains far out of reach. Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul-Kareem Luaibi this month began inching toward acceptance of an industry consensus that Iraq might be able to accomplish half of Saudi Arabia’s output, or less, over a much longer time frame.

 

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  • “The Iraqi government bit off more than it could chew. It was proposing to do in seven years what it took the Saudis 70 years under a much more benign set of circumstances,” said Raad Alkadiri, a country risk specialist for PFC Energy who returned recently from Iraq. “You can put on paper the biggest project you like, but that requires a much more functional administrative process than exists right now.”

Iraq’s lowered sights on oil typifies a problem still common across the country. With Iraq’s government and security situation still evolving, marrying Iraqis’ grand ambitions, intense national pride and nascent capabilities remains no easy task for its leaders. The timeline for progress in almost every arena continues to slide invariably to the right.

 

But a forced revision on oil comes on no bigger stage. It diminishes any hope that Iraq could soon tilt the needle lower on worldwide oil prices. Markets analysts, who had remained skeptical of Iraq’s production promises, have yet to build most of them into expected future oil prices. But with the second-biggest reserves in the world, Iraq remains a wildcard capable of easing global demand and reducing prices.

Iraq has already signed a contract with an Australian company to replace its most dangerous underwater pipeline by the end of 2012. That alone will not increase production because the old pipeline is scheduled to be retired when the new one is complete. But a second new pipeline and pumping station could come online by 2013.

Under a best-case scenario, analysts say, Iraq could hit 4.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2013, and then it would probably take several more years to significantly increase production further.

Still, such an increase would be no small feat and could continue to have profound effects domestically for Iraq in coming years.

In recent years, as the global recession plunged nearly every government budget into the red, rising oil profits put Iraq on a different path. In each of the past five years, it forecast a year-end deficit but ended up instead with a perennial surplus.

Iraq is producing nearly 2.7 million barrels per day, up 15 percent from this time a year ago.

The ambitious goal it set was to reach 12 million barrels per day by 2017. Luaibi said this month that Iraq may eventually plateau at a much lower volume, of about 7 million or 8 million, and for twice as long.

U.S. officials have even lower expectations. In its latest forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted Iraq’s output will remain below 4 million barrels per day at the end of the decade.

Even in that scenario, however, the corresponding rise in profits could swell Iraq’s annual budget to well over $100 billion.

Iraqi parliament member Ahmed al-Alwani, who heads the branch’s economics committee, said any increase in production now amounts to Iraq having more income than it ever had previously. The problem is, he said, at least for the next decade or so, no amount will ever be enough to pay for rebuilding Iraq.

“Everyone focuses on the revenue and how much money [oil] can bring in, but the needs are even much greater,” he said.

 

 

در زندانهای میهنمان حکم اسلام حکومتی پیاده میشود

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مقامات زندانها به بزهکاران حرفه ایی کاندوم میدهند تا به فعالین سیاسی تجاوز کنند

 

notorious prison

Iranians opposition supporters 

Oppostition protests in 2009 – political activists have accused the intelligence ministry and the revolutionary guards of harassing inmates with sexual assaults. Photograph: Reuters

Prison guards in Iran are giving condoms to criminals and encouraging them to systematically rape young opposition activists locked up with them, according to accounts from inside the country’s jail system.

A series of dramatic letters written by prisoners and families of imprisoned activists allege that authorities are intentionally facilitating mass rape and using it as a form of punishment.

Mehdi Mahmoudian, an outspoken member of Iran’s Participation Front, a reformist political party, is among those prisoners who have succeeded in smuggling out letters revealing the extent of rape inside some of the most notorious prisons.

Mahmoudian was arrested in the aftermath of Iran’s 2009 disputed presidential election for speaking to the press about the regime’s suppression of the movement and is currently in Rajaeeshahr prison in Karaj, a city 12 miles (20km) to the west of the capital, Tehran.

“In various cells inside the prison, rape has become a common act and acceptable,” he wrote in a letter published on Kaleme.com, the official website of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.

According to Mahmoudian and letters published on various opposition websites, political prisoners are locked up with some of the most dangerous criminals – murderers and ex-members of armed gangs.

Meanwhile, 26 prominent political activists who have been in jail since the 2009 election have written to an official prison monitoring body accusing the government’s intelligence ministry and the revolutionary guards of harassing inmates with unlawful tactics that included sexual assaults.

Mohsen Aminzadeh, a senior deputy foreign minister, Mohsen Mirdamadi, a leader of a reformist party and Behzad Nabavi, a veteran activist are among those who put their signatures on the letter.

Speaking to Jaras, a website run by opposition activists, families of political prisoners have alleged that prison guards are failing to protect them from rape or sexual assault.

“During exercise periods, the strong ask for sex without any consideration. Criminals are repeatedly seen with condoms in hand, hunting for their victims,” an unnamed family member told Jaras.

“If the inmate is not powerful enough or guards would not take care of him, he will be certainly raped. Prison guards ignore those who are seen with condoms simply because they were given out to them by the guards at first place,” the family member said.

The family members say prison guards are turning a blind eye to the systematic rape and have ignored complaints made by rape victims.

Amnesty International, which has documented rape inside Iran’s prisons and interviewed victims for a 2010 report, called on Iran to launch an investigation into the recent allegations.

Kristyan Benedict, Amnesty International UK’s Middle East campaign manager, told the Guardian: “Rape is a terrible crime and these allegations [mentioned in the letters] should be thoroughly investigated. Amnesty International has also documented the rape of male and female detainees by security officials. Many of those detained for taking part in post-election protests were tortured and did not receive fair trials. The Iranian authorities still continue to punish and persecute those who peacefully speak up against them.”

According to Mahmoudian, who has been transferred to a solitary confinement after his letter attracted attention, one young prisoner was raped seven times in a single night.

“In [Rajaeeshahr] prison, those who have pretty faces and are unable to defend themselves or cannot afford to bribe others are forcibly taken to different cells each night [to be raped],” he writes.

“The situation is such that those exposed to rape even have an owner and that owner makes money by renting him out to others and after a while selling him to someone else.”

Rape victims in Iran usually stay quiet in order to protect the honour of their family but at the time when journalists based in the country are facing strict restrictions, these letters have become one of the only sources of information about the situation of hundreds of imprisoned activists.

Iranian officials have ignored the allegations and have previously denied any claims of rape inside jail.

هند و انها را تشویق میکنند تا به فعالین سیاسی تجاوز کنند

ننگت باد این رهبر بزهکاران!

 

 

بمب نرم افزاری آژانس

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یک نظر با مبنا گیری عرضه و تقاضا

 

بمب نرم افزاردانه آژانس جهانی انرژی بیشتر به یک بمب نرم افزارانه شبیه است تا بمب اتمی

IEA’s move more of a smart bomb than the nuclear option

By Javier Blas, Commodities Editor

Does the International Energy Agency know something that the market ignores?

The release of the strategic petroleum reserve is prompting questions in the market. True, Libya oil production is out-of-action; refineries are demanding more oil as we move into the second half of the year, and high oil prices are affecting economic growth. All of that is plainly evident to the market. Yet, it appears that there is something more.

For the critics, that something more is political interest.

The White House – and European governments – were concerned about losing votes due to high petrol prices. Other argue that the release is a response to the collapse of the meeting of the Opec cartel earlier this month. I think factor is relevant as background, but also that there is more to it than that.

The more to it is not a secret that the IEA is keeping close to its chest and the market ignores. I just think that the agency is putting more emphasis on some evident problems it sees lying ahead: the first one is the outage in Libya, the second is the health of demand.

On Libya, the release indicates that the country’s oil production is not going to recover any time soon. The north African nation pumped around 1.6m barrels a day of high quality light, sweet oil before the start of the civil war around 100 days ago. Since then, production has fallen to just 200,000 b/d. Even if the war were to finish today, production would not recover for months. The outage has already been long enough to inflict damage on the oil wells, some of which would need to be redrilled to recover. That would take time. So the release is clearly telling the market “forget about Libya for the rest of the year. If not longer”. Moreover, London, Paris and other capitals involved in the conflict probably have indicated to the IEA that the chances of a military or political solution over the short term are minimal, further delaying the return of oil production.

The health of demand is another key factor. True, economic growth in the US and Europe is slowing down, and so is oil demand growth there. But at the same time consumption growth remains robust in the rest of the world. The IEA hinted at this factor during a conference call with reporters on Thursday. In particular, it noted that some of the production boost by Saudi Arabia – which has brought oil output to more than 9.5m b/d and it is on its way to a 32-year high of 10m b/d – would be necessary to meet rising domestic demand by the kingdom during the summer, when the use of air conditioning and water desalinations triggers a spike of direct crude oil burning for power generation. While some on the market expect that economic weakness would cut demand growth, I believe that the IEA is telling the market the opposite: demand growth remains strong.

Conspiracy theorist are having a field day, but I think that the release is ground of simpler facts: the loss of Libya production for longer than anticipated, the surprising robustness of oil demand growth in China, India and Saudi Arabia, and, yes, the evident impact of high oil prices on economic growth in developed countries.

Add to that a new view in Washington and at the IEA’s headquarters in Paris of the strategic reserve as a smart bomb, to be used in the event of small oil output disruptions, rather than a nuclear option, to be used only as last resort, and the release makes sense

 

اوباما بمب نفتی را زمین زد

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Barack Obamah

خبر اینکه آژانس جهانی انرژی ۶۰ میلیون بشکه نفت را روانه بازار خواهد کرد مثل ک بمب در بازار جهانی بر زمین زده شد

اینک معلوم میشود که  این پرزیدنیت اوباما بوده است که آزانس را وادار به سرازیر کردن این وقدار نفت به بازار کرده است

Barack Obama Foto: AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB

Obama-press bak oljebombe

USA sendte embetsmenn på hemmelig reise – og jobbet i to måneder med å få til gårsdagens oljeslipp.

Cecilie Langum Becker

Publisert: 24.06.2011 – 08:18 Oppdatert: 24.06.2011 – 10:45

Nyheten om at det internasjonale energibyrået IEA vil frigi 60 millioner fat olje frem til utgangen av juli slo ned som en bombe i markedene igår, og sendte oljeprisen ned over seks dollar.

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Også Oslo Børs falt kraftig.

Nå viser det seg at det var USA og den amerikanske presidenten Barack Obama som presset på for å få på plass frislippet, ifølge TDN Finans fredag. Nyhetsbyrået viser til avisen the Wall Street Journal.

Les også: IEA frigir olje fra krise-lagre

USA arbeidet i nesten to måneder for å få i stand frigjøringen av olje fra de strategiske reservene, og ansatte i Det hvite hus sier at USA vil vurdere oljemarkedet de kommende månedene, og at de strategiske oljereservene vil kunne bli benyttet igjen.

Ideen om å benytte seg av reservene for tredje gang i historien, ble lansert i slutten av april, da Brent-olje steg til over 120 dollar pr fat, skriver avisen.

Ringte til kongen
Vissheten om at Saudi-Arabia tradisjonelt er i mot amerikanske ønsker om å frigjøre olje fra strategiske reserver, førte til at president Barack Obama ringte Saudi-Arabias kong Abdullah i begynnelsen av mai for å diskutere saken. Deretter sendte Obama en delegasjon av ledende embetsmenn på hemmelig reise til Saudi-Arabia, Kuwait og UAE, får avisen opplyst.

Senere i mai presset Obama andre ledere på G8-toppmøtet i Frankrike til å støtte planen aktivt, sier representantene for Det hvite hus. Sist onsdag, selv etter at Saudi-Arabia kunngjorde at landet vil øke sin egen produksjon med 1,5 millioner fat dagen, godkjente Obama en plan om å starte diskusjoner med det internasjonale energibyrået IEA om å frigjøre en del av de amerikanske reservene.

– Og det var der vi endte opp klokken 09.00 i dag, sier kilden, som viser til torsdagens hendelse.

De 60 millioner fatene er mindre enn det globale oljekonsumet én dag.

Kan kutte 10-12 dollar
Banken Goldman Sachs tror frislippet kan kutte deres prismål på nordsjøoljen med 10-12 dollar til 105-107 dollar fatet, ifølge TDN Finans, som viser til en analyse torsdag kveld.

Samtidig sier det det nigerianske statsoljeselskapet NNPC at frislippet ikke vil endre noen ting i produsentlandene, fordi det stadig vil være behov for ytterligere tilførsel.

En myk landing
I løpet av IEAs 37 år lange historie har organisasjonen kun to ganger tidligere tatt kriselagrene i bruk, ifølge Upstream Online. Den første gangen var i 1990 da Irak invaderte Kuwait og den andre gangen var etter orkanen Katrina da IEA friga raffinerte produkter fra europeiske lagre til USA.

– I dag, for tredje gang i IEAs historie, har våre medlemsland besluttet å frigi oljelagre. Jeg forventer at dette tiltaket vil bidra til et godt forsynt marked og at det vil sikre en myk landing for verdensøkonomien, sa IEA-sjef Nobuo Tanaka på en pressekonferanse.

Norge er ikke invitert til å delta med frigivelse av olje fra lager, opplyste Olje- og energidepartementet til TDN Finans torsdag.

Oljeprisen har hentet seg litt inn igjen siden igår, og et fat nordsjøolje koster fredag morgen 108,4 dollar fatet – en oppgang på litt over en prosent siden torsdag. Samtidig stiger også den amerikanske oljeprisen WTI en drøy prosent til rundt 92 dollar fatet.

Les også intervjuet med Nordeas Thina Saltvedt igår: – IEA stoler ikke på

 

جنگ نفت جبهه جدیدی علیه ایران

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جنگ سهمگین نفت و زرادخانه فرسوده ایران

 

بازار جهانی نفت در ماه های اخیر، بظاهر و عمدتاً، تحت تأثیر رویدادهای لیبی شاهد افزایش بهایی تا حد ۳۰ـ ۵۰ درصد برای هر بشکه  نفت  بوده است. با توجه به اینکه بعلت رکود جهانی و قیمت بالای سوخت که منطقاً موجب کاهش یا صرفه جوئی در مصرف مواد سوخت هیدروکربنی میشود، بود یا نبود ۲ میلیون بشکه نفت لیبی در بازاری که روزی قریب ۷۰ میلیون بشکه نفت در آن خرید و فروش میشود نباید چنین نوسان تندی در قیمت نفت در دنیا ایجاد کند.

برابر گزارشها ی خبری از بازار نفت، قبل از نشست  اخیر اوپک در ماه قبل، آژانس بین المللی انرژی IEA    با عربستان تماس  گرفته و ازآن کشور خواسته است تا در اجلاس پیش روی اوپک، برای افزایش تولید و پر کردن شکاف عرضه و تقاضا در بازار دنیا تلاش کند. پس از شکست  اجلاس در تصمیم گیری روی افزایش تولید  در اثرِ مقاومت ایران، ونزوئلا و الجزایر؛ عربستان سعودی اعلام میکند که یکجانبه تولید خود را به میزان یک میلیون بشکه یا ۱۰% افزایش خواهد داد. کویت نیز افزایشی معادل ۲۰۰ هزار بشکه را وعده میدهد. دیگر شیخ نشینان حاشیه خلیج هم هریک به نسبت ظرفیت خود وعده هایی میدهند.

روز قبل روزنامه وال استریت ژورنال به نقل از یک عضو بلند پایه خاندان سلطنتی سعودی نوشت: ریاض میتواند با عرضه نفت کافی به دنیا ، ایران را از جرگه صادرکنندگان نفت خارج کرده و سهم تولید آنرا با نفت خود پر کند، اگر آن کشور( ایران) برنامه ی هسته ایی خود را محدود نکند.

این اظهارات مقامات سعودی حکایت از این دارد که در منطقه، اجماعی علیه اتمی شدن ایران در حال شکلگیری است که عملاً یا ظاهراً اهمیت فشار غرب را  در این رابطه کاهش داده، یا بلاموضوع میکند و  در عوض دولت های منطقه را بجان ایران می اندازد.

دوروز قبل نیزهمین روزنامه  نوشت:

شاهزاه پر نفوذ عربستان؛ تورکی الفیصل در یک جلسه در پایگاه هوایی «مولس وُرث» درانگلیس در نشستی خصوص باجمعی از دولتمردان  آمریکا و انگلیس گفت: ـ « ایران در بخش نفت آسیب پذیر است و در اینجاست که میتوان آنرا ِله کرد».

هنوز گزارشهای خبری این موضعگیری عربستان، چه در زمینه خُرد کردن ایران  با اِشباع کردن بازار نفت دنیا ، با به چالشگیری جاه طلبی های اتمی ایران و سیاسی ـ منطقه ای کردن کامل قضیه ی برنامه هسته ایی ایران و ظاهر  شدن در جایگاه مدعی اصلی ایران بجای آمریکا؛ از صفحه سایت های خبری محو نشده بود که آژانس بین المللی انرژی* اعلام کرد امریکا و ۲۷ کشور دیگر عضو عضو این آژانس بمدت دوماه، هروز دو میلیون بشکه از ذخایر نفتی استراتژیک  خود را وارد بازار خواهند کرد. خبری که بازار دنیا را شوکه کرد و امروز بازتابش درجهش بورس آسیا بعلت خبر کاهش قیمت نفت دیده میشود.

بنظر نگارنده این سطور داشتن نگاه صرفِ اقتصادی  و نفتی به این تحولات نگاهی ساده اندیشانه است اگر اینرا نیز بدانیم که: ازدو سال قبل، بنوشته همین «وال استریت ژورنال» کاخ سفید با مقامات عربستان در گفتگو بوده است تا آنها را قانع کند که برای خُرد کردن ایران از ابزار نفتی استفاده کنند. بنا به نوشته این روزنامه امریکا سعی نموده تا عربستان را ترغیب کند که به چین تضمین های کافی را برای ارضای نیازهای نفتی آن کشور بدهد تا آن کشور از سرمایه گزاری روی نفت ایران خود داری کند.

در پرتو این گزارشها و رخدادهاست که میتوان افزایش ناگهانی( و بنظر من بی دلیلِ) قیمت نفت در چند هفته اخیر را درست فهمید. و حتی میتوان گمانه زد که بخشی از تلاطم ارزی و تب طلای اخیر در تهران نیز با این قضایا بی ربط نیست. این گمانه بی ربط نیست که بگوئیم جهش قیمت ناگهانی نفت در هفته های اخیر هدفش نه ارضای بازار بلکه انباشت نفت بقصد سرازیر کردن ناگهانی آن به بازار بوده است.

بعنوان یک اپیزود باید اضافه کنم که معاون وزیر نفت کشورمان؛ مندرج در سایت دنیای اقتصاد دیروز« پایان عصر تولید نفت ارزان» در ایران را اعلام داشت. در توضیح و بعنوان علت این امر، وی فرسایش چاه ها و  فقدان  تکنولوژی جدید و عدم سرمایه گزاری در عملیات احیاء و بازیافت منابع فرسوده نفتی بعلت تحریم و.. را ذکر کرد.

 

نتیجه ایی که از همه این گزارشها و اخبار میتوان گرفت اینست که  ظاهراً پروژه خُرد کردن بنیه مالی ایران بعنوان پیش درآمد بزانو درآوردن حکومت ما کلیک خورده است.

با توجه به ارتباط مستقیم بنیه مالی، ارزی  کشور با درآمد نفت اظهارا ت آقای مظاهری رئیس سابق بانک مرکزی نیز شایان توجه است. وی ضمن انتقاد از تصمیمات بهمنی رئیس کنونی بانک مرکزی در مور بی سیاستی های ارزی وی میگوید: بانک مرکزی ارزی ندارد تا بازار را با آن پر کند!  بظاهر رجز خوانی و پس و پیش روی آقای بهمنی در تصمیمات غیر قابل فهمش در روزها و هفته های اخیر روی بالا و پائین کشیدن ۱۲ درصدی نرخ برابری ارزی  و سپس وعده دلار زیر ۱۰۰۰ تومنی دادن نیز غیر مستقیم میتواند ناشی از این   احساس خطر پیش روی باشد.

 

 

آخرین خبر از روزنامه نروژی« داگنز نرینیگز لیو»

امریکا بمب نفتی را به پس زد

آمریکا بمدت دو ماه نمایندگان خود را به مسافرتی مخفیانه فرستاد تا به دستآورد نفتی دیروز برسد.

Obama-press bak oljebombe

USA sendte embetsmenn på hemmelig reise – og jobbet i to måneder med å få til gårsdagens oljeslipp.

Cecilie Langum Becker

Publisert: 24.06.2011 – 08:18 Oppdatert: 24.06.2011 – 09:05

 

 

 

 

توضیح  اینکه در تنظیم این یاداشت از : دو گزارش وال استریت ژورنال، یک گزارش آژانس جهانی انرژیی«  IEA  » ، مجله اقتصادی نروژ،  فینانس آویسن، سایت دنیای اقتصاد و ایلنا استفاده شده است. که برخی از این منابع را در زیر را برای علاقه مندانی که مایل به مطالعه منابع اصلی هستند کپی میکنم. ضمناً هر دو گزارش خبری وال استریت ژورنال را نیز در بخش اخبار در همین سایت به زبان اصلی گذارده ام که مراجعه به آن بخش را نیز به آشنایان به زبانهای انگلیسی ، سوئدی و نروژی توصیه میکنم با این توضیح که در ذیل بخش اخبار، گزیده های نشریات انگلیس زبان از جمله نشریات عربی : الشرق الاوسط، الجزیره ؛ الحیات و دیلی عراق، الاهرام و.. ، که میت.اند زحمت جستجو گران را در یافتن منابع خبری برای آنان آسان کند.

 

«آخرین خبر از روزنامه نروژی داگنز نرینیگز لیو»

 

 

 

*

IEA
The U.S. and 27 other countries agreed Thursday to release 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, temporarily driving down oil prices to a four-month low in a controversial effort to prop up the world’s fragile economy.

The White House said the decision to tap oil reserves—only the third time strategic crude stocks have been tapped in a coordinated global effort—is meant to help replace some of the 140 million barrels of oil production lost as a result of the three-month conflict in Libya, and to boost supplies during the peak summer driving season.

 

 

 

 

 

……………………………………………………………….

 

معاون وزیر نفت اعلام کرد

پایان عصر تولید نفت ارزان

دنیای اقتصاد- «عصر تولید نفت ارزان و کم هزینه در ایران که همیشه مهم‌ترین مزیت صنعت نفت ایران محسوب می‌شد، به پایان رسیده است». در حالی که کارشناسان مستقل صنعت نفت ایران بیان می‌کنند که اکثر چاه‌های نفتی ایران به دلیل افت فشار به نیمه دوم عمر خود رسیده است، معاون وزیر نفت روز گذشته اعلام کرد: «دوره تولید نفت آسان و ارزان به پایان رسیده است.» کارشناسان براین باورند: «ایران برای حفظ سهم ۱۴ درصدی خود در اوپک، باید به بهره‌گیری از تکنولوژی نوین و سرمایه‌گذاری‌های جدید روی آورد.»

 

پایان تولید نفت ارزان در ایران

معاون وزیر نفت: ۸۰ درصد میادین نفتی پیر هستند

یک کارشناس ارشد مهندسی مخزن: طرح‌های افزایش ضریب بازیافت به خوبی اجرا نمی‌شود

گروه انرژی- غزاله طایفه: منابع دولتی تایید می‌کنند که تولید نفت ارزان و کم هزینه در کشور پایان یافته است.

قرارگرفتن ۸۰ درصد از میادین نفتی کشور در نیمه دوم عمر خود و افت سالانه ۳۰۰ هزار بشکه‌ای تولید نفت، زنگ خطر پایین بودن ضریب بازیافت میادین نفتی را بار دیگر به صدا در آورده است. موضوعی که «نفت» را بر آن داشته تا برای نگهداشت تولید نفت امسال ۵ میلیارد دلار سرمایه‌گذاری کند.

کارشناسان حوزه انرژی که همواره پایین بودن ضریب بازیافت میادین نفتی کشور را هشدار می‌دهند، معتقدند:«با افزایش نیافتن ضریب بازیافت میادین نفتی، منافع اقتصادی کلانی از بین می‌رود.» بر اساس گفته این کارشناسان در طول برنامه چهارم توسعه ضریب بازیافت میادین نفتی افزایش چندانی نداشته است. حال با توجه به اینکه در طول برنامه پنجم توسعه میزان تولید نفت ایران باید حدود یک میلیون بشکه در روز افزایش یابد، قطعا باید برنامه‌ریزی جامعی در مورد افزایش ضریب بازیافت صورت گیرد.

سرمایه‌گذاری ۵ میلیارد دلاری

به گزارش خبرنگار ما، این در شرایطی است که وزارت نفت متوسط ضریب بازیافت میادین نفتی کشور را ۲۶ درصد اعلام می‌کند و درصدد تدوین نقشه راه ازدیاد برداشت از میادین کشور است.

در این بین، معاون وزیر نفت با تاکید بر اینکه دوره تولید نفت ارزان و آسان به پایان رسیده است، می‌گوید:«امسال برای نگهداشت تولید نفت ۵ میلیارد دلار سرمایه‌گذاری می‌شود.»

«محسن خجسته مهر» با تاکید بر اینکه همواره نگهداشت توان تولید و اقدامات مربوط به آن جزو مهم‌ترین فعالیت‌هایی بوده که به طور سالانه در صنعت نفت انجام می‌شود، گفت: «برای تحقق برنامه نگهداشت توان تولید نفت، رعایت الزامات فنی و مالی به ویژه تامین کالا و تجهیزات و دکل حفاری از یک یا دو سال قبل از آن ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. وی در گفت‌وگو با «مهر» اظهار کرد: «مهم‌ترین الزام در نگهداشت توان تولید نفت توجه به ویژگی‌های سیال و مکانیسم‌های تولیدی میادین است؛ به ویژه میادینی که بیش از سه دهه از تولید آنها می‌گذرد.»

افزایش هزینه نگهداشت تولید

این مقام مسوول افزود:«قطعا بکار گیری و استفاده از روش‌های مصنوعی، فراز آوری با گاز، پمپ‌های درون چاهی، حفاری‌های افقی، اسید کاری و توسعه طرح‌های نمک‌زدایی به عنوان مهم‌ترین روش‌ها و الزامات نگهداشت تولید نفت به شمار می‌رود که انجام این فعالیت‌ها به سهولت سال‌های گذشته و هزینه اندک امکان‌پذیر نیست.» «خجسته مهر»، تاکید کرد:«همچنین نگهداشت توان تولید میادین گازی نیز وابسته به راه‌اندازی پروژه‌های تقویت فشار گاز است که مستقیما اهداف نگهداشت تولید گاز را محقق می‌کند.»

دوره نفت آسان تمام شد

معاون وزیر نفت با بیان اینکه دوره تولید نفت آسان تمام شده و باید اولویت بودجه و تمرکز فعالیت‌ها روی استخراج از میادینی که در نیمه دوم عمر هستند، انجام شود، گفت:«در شرایط فعلی ۸۰ درصد میدان‌های نفتی کشور در نیمه دوم عمر خود قرار دارند.»

وی با اشاره به اینکه در سال جاری حدود ۵ میلیارد دلار برای اجرای طرح‌های نگهداشت توان تولید که عمدتا به مناطق نفتخیز جنوب اختصاص دارد سرمایه‌گذاری خواهد شد، تصریح کرد:«این موضوع در اولویت بودجه و تخصیص منابع عمدتا مبتنی بر بودجه‌های سنواتی وزارت نفت قرار دارد.»

«خجسته مهر» با اعلام اینکه براساس برنامه پنجم توسعه وزارت نفت مکلف شده تا افزایش یک میلیون بشکه‌ای ظرفیت تولید نفت را در پایان برنامه محقق کند، خاطرنشان‌کرد: «هم اکنون ظرفیت تولید نفت کشور روزانه ۳/۴ میلیون بشکه است؛ اما تولید و صادرات نفت ایران در چارچوب سهمیه‌بندی اوپک انجام می‌شود.» به گزارش خبرنگار ما، این اظهارات در حالی عنوان می‌شود که یک کارشناس مهندسی مخزن معتقد است که مساله میزان ضریب بازیافت از میادین نفتی پیچیده‌تر از مواردی است که در آمار و ارقام ذکر می‌شود.

تولید یک هفته‌ای بالا نمی‌رود

«علی‌اکبر وحیدی آل‌آقا» در گفت‌وگو با «دنیای اقتصاد» می‌گوید:«تولید نفت چیزی نیست که ظرف یک یا دو هفته بالا برود و در واقع میزان بازیافت از میادین نفتی به صورت تخمینی گفته می‌شود. به طور مثال تخمین زده می‌شود که با روش تخلیه طبیعی ۲۵ درصد از نفت یک میدان قابل تولید است و اگر با استفاده از روش‌های ازدیاد برداشت همچون تزریق آب، گاز یا تزریق همزمان گاز و آب اقدام به استخراج نفت کنیم، ضریب بازیافت می‌تواند به بیش از ۳۰ درصد افزایش یابد.» وی افزود:«اما باید در نظر داشت که این تنها یک تخمین است؛ چون هنوز برنامه‌ای صورت نگرفته است. در واقع این گونه نیست که ضریب بازیافت یک روز بالا برود و یک روز پایین بیاید. وقتی گفته می‌شود که ضریب بازیافت نفت از این میدان بالا رفته است؛ یعنی در آن زمان برای استفاده از روش‌های بالا بردن ضریب بازیافت قراردادهایی بسته یا طرح‌هایی مطرح شده که اگر عملیاتی شود ضریب بازیافت آن میدان افزایش می‌یابد.»

افزایش ضریب بازیافت، پرخرج و زمانگیر

این کارشناس مهندسی مخزن در ادامه گفت:«افزایش ضریب بازیافت میادین نفتی یک پروسه طولانی مدت است. در واقع اگر در اول عمر یک میدان روش‌های ازدیاد برداشت (تزریق گاز، آب و …) استفاده شود نتیجه بهتری می‌دهد؛ اما اگر از عمر میدان گذشته باشد، به تزریق و زمان زیادتری نیاز خواهد داشت.»

وی افزود:«روش‌های افزایش ضریب بازیافت هم پرخرج و هم زمانگیر ولی بسیار حیاتی هستند.»

ملی نگاه کنید

«آل‌آقا» با بیان اینکه مساله ضریب بازیافت از ۴۰ سال پیش در کشور مطرح بوده است در مورد پایین بودن ضریب بازیافت میادین نفتی کشور، گفت:«اینکه پروژه‌های افزایش ضریب بازیافت به خوبی عملی نمی‌شوند به دلیل تعویق در اجرای پروژه‌های دراز مدت و حرکت به سمت پروژه‌های زودبازده بوده است.» به گفته این کارشناس مهندسی مخزن، باید به پروژه‌های افزایش ضریب بازیافت به صورت پروژه‌های ملی نگاه کرد.

وی در پاسخ به این سوال که آیا نبود تکنولوژی یا تکنولوژی پایین سبب عقب‌افتادگی کشور در زمینه ازیاد برداشت از مخازن شده اظهار کرد: «من این موضوع را قبول ندارم. البته بعضی از مخازن کشور ممکن است که برای افزایش تولید خود نیازمند تکنولوژی خاصی باشند؛ اما در تعداد زیادی از مخازن کشور امکان افزایش ضریب بازیافت با تکنولوژی‌های فعلی وجود دارد. به نظر من به جای اینکه مدعی شویم که تکنولوژی ما در مورد افزایش ضریب بازیافت از مخازن پایین است، باید خوب مطالعه کنیم که مخازن ما به چه روشی برای افزایش تولید خود نیاز دارند و تکنولوژی‌های لازم برای روش مورد نظر کدامند.»

عمر ۲۰ تا ۳۰ ساله میادین

«آل‌آقا» افزود:«در حال حاضر تولید نفت از میادین اصلی ایران از جمله گچساران، اهواز، مارون، آغاجاری، رگ سفید، بی‌بی حکیمه و غیره که عمری به مراتب بیش از ۲۰ تا ۳۰ ساله دارند، کاهش یافته و جز با دید دراز مدت نمی‌توان میزان تولید نفت از این میادین را افزایش داد.»

منافع مهم‌تر از جایگاه

وی در پاسخ به دیدگاه برخی از کارشناسان که معتقدند در صورتی که ایران برنامه‌های ازدیاد برداشت از میادین نفتی را به سرعت انجام ندهد، جایگاه خود را در بین تولیدکنندگان نفت اوپک از دست خواهد داد، گفت: «ما باید منافع ملی مان را در نظر بگیرم و از مخازن نفتی مان به صورت صیانتی و بهینه تولید داشته باشیم.»

لزوم مدیریت مصرف در کنار تولید

«آل‌آقا» در پایان با اشاره به اینکه در کنار مدیریت تولید باید به مدیریت مصرف نیز توجه شود، اظهار کرد:«در حال حاضر ایران روزانه حدود ۵/۲ میلیون بشکه نفت را صادر و ۵/۱ میلیون بشکه نفت را نیز در داخل مصرف می‌کند.

در این بین با توجه به افت سالانه تولید (حدود ۳۰۰ هزار بشکه) اگر بخواهیم که آمار صادرات نفت خود را حفظ کنیم یا باید اقدام به توسعه میادین جدید کنیم که قطعا به سرمایه‌گذاری زیادی نیاز دارد یا باید مصرف را کاهش دهیم که خوشبختانه در این اواخر اقداماتی آغاز شده است که لازم است به صورت جدی پیگیری شود و توسعه یابد.»

به نظر کارشناسان، ازدیاد برداشت ابزار و روشی است برای اینکه بتوانیم نفت بیشتری را از ذخیره درجای میدان برداشت کنیم و این هدف حاصل نمی‌شود؛ مگر اینکه از اولین مرحله توسعه میدان این موضوع مدنظر قرار گیرد.

عکس: شان

 

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OPEC Members Warn IEA Oil Release Could Backfire

By BENOIT FAUCON And SUMMER SAID

LONDON—Some OPEC members warned of possible retaliatory measures after several of the world’s largest oil consumers said they would release 60 million barrels of oil—a move that immediately sent oil prices sharply lower.

The International Energy Agency, which coordinates emergency oil inventories policy for its 28 members, said Thursday it had consulted about the oil-release plan with major oil producers, including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and major consumers including China. The IEA said it’s acting to protect the global economic recovery by filling some of the ongoing supply shortfall from lost Libyan production, due to its civil war.

The IEA’s move, however, could prompt producers to mend fences within OPEC after Saudi Arabia failed to persuade other members at a policy meeting this month to collectively boost output. Some OPEC members quickly united Thursday in condemning the IEA’s action, setting up the possibility that producers might take countermeasures to prop up the oil price.

“If we see a glut or a fall in prices, OPEC will call an emergency meeting to correct” them, one OPEC delegate said, reacting to the IEA oil-release plan.

Several OPEC countries have boosted spending this year to create jobs and build more housing. They therefore need a historically high oil price to cover the increased costs. Merrill Lynch said in an April research note that Saudi Arabia now needs as much as $95 a barrel to defray the costs after announcing the equivalent of $129 billion in new spending.

For some OPEC members, the IEA oil release adds salt to a wound opened up at OPEC’s meeting earlier this month. The United States, which is the world’s largest oil consumer, had sought help from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil exporter, to fill the supply gap left by Libya. Saudi Arabia argued at the OPEC meeting in favor of raising members’ production quotas, but the group walked away with no consensus agreement to change output. Saudi Arabia then pledged to unilaterally raise its output–a contentious move that remains a sore point within OPEC.

Saudi Arabia has said it would boost production by 1 million barrels a day. The IEA has said its preliminary numbers show the kingdom has already increased output by about 500,000 barrels a day. Kuwait has also said it could hike its production by up to 200,000 barrels a day this summer.

On Thursday, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said the emergency release was taken to make up for a delay before Saudi supplies hit the market.

Despite this, some officials from OPEC countries reacted angrily. “This is surprising and unjustified,” an official from a Gulf OPEC member told Dow Jones. “The agency is acting on its own, and we don’t see a need for the release of emergency stocks.”

“We will feel the impact of the drop in prices. It will cause prejudice to oil producers,” said a delegate from another OPEC member.

This reaction jarred with comments from the IEA’s deputy director Richard Jones, who said OPEC members had been consulted ahead of the decision to release stocks.

A senior official in the Obama administration said, “The action taken today is being done with full consultation with the major producing countries. It’s intended to complement the effort of many countries, including Saudi Arabia.”

OPEC has said the divisiveness among its members has more to do with economics than politics, though unrest this year in the Middle East and North Africa has deepened existing rifts within the group.

“The global economy has not turned around enough” to justify more oil supply, an OPEC delegate said.

The IEA said its surprise move–only the third emergency release in the agency’s history–is designed to address a real oil shortage rather than about influencing oil prices.

But the oil market swiftly reacted to the pledged influx of extra supply.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery ended down 4.6% at $91.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell as low as $89.69 a barrel earlier in the session, their lowest level since Feb. 22. August Brent crude oil futures settled down 6.1% at $107.26 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

“If Brent continues south, down through $100 … I think you’ll start to hear talk about OPEC cutting [its oil production], and this could include the Saudis,” said Michael Wittner, oil analyst at Societe Generale in New York.

Around 1.5 million barrels a day of Libyan production have been shut down since the civil war began there in February. Previous IEA stock releases were of a similar size and followed the first Gulf War and Hurricane Katrina. In a smaller action, the agency also relaxed its stock-holding requirements on Japan after Japan was unable to import some petroleum supplies following the earthquake and tsunami this year.

The IEA’s move Thursday may jeopardize a tacit agreement between Saudi Arabia, as the de facto OPEC leader, and the IEA to consult each other about oil supply intervention in order to avoid a glut.

After Saudi oil-supply increases and an IEA inventory release in the first Gulf war drove down oil prices, the Saudis and the IEA struck an informal bargain whereby the latter would only use emergency releases if OPEC producers refused to hike output, according to a 2003 Wall Street Journal article.

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency decided to deliver more oil to the market even after Saudi Arabia had said it would boost output. Some analysts suggested they believe the IEA’s move was directed against the producers’ group, despite IEA comments to the contrary.

“It’s a move against OPEC, not the Saudis,” said independent oil analyst John Hall. “But it may cause a rift of some kind” between the Saudis and the IEA.

Another oil analyst said the IEA’s action could backfire if it alienates oil producers. “The consumer-producer dialogue is going to run into some troubled waters as [Saudi Arabia] has begun to increase its production. The incentive to raise production is now lessened,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas.

—James Herron in London and Dan Strumpf in New York contributed to this article.

Write to Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@dowjones.com and Summer Said at summer.said@dowjones.com

 

 

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  • JUNE 23, 2011, 4:31 P.M. ET

OPEC Members Warn IEA Oil Release Could Backfire

By BENOIT FAUCON And SUMMER SAID

LONDON—Some OPEC members warned of possible retaliatory measures after several of the world’s largest oil consumers said they would release 60 million barrels of oil—a move that immediately sent oil prices sharply lower.

The International Energy Agency, which coordinates emergency oil inventories policy for its 28 members, said Thursday it had consulted about the oil-release plan with major oil producers, including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and major consumers including China. The IEA said it’s acting to protect the global economic recovery by filling some of the ongoing supply shortfall from lost Libyan production, due to its civil war.

The IEA’s move, however, could prompt producers to mend fences within OPEC after Saudi Arabia failed to persuade other members at a policy meeting this month to collectively boost output. Some OPEC members quickly united Thursday in condemning the IEA’s action, setting up the possibility that producers might take countermeasures to prop up the oil price.

“If we see a glut or a fall in prices, OPEC will call an emergency meeting to correct” them, one OPEC delegate said, reacting to the IEA oil-release plan.

Several OPEC countries have boosted spending this year to create jobs and build more housing. They therefore need a historically high oil price to cover the increased costs. Merrill Lynch said in an April research note that Saudi Arabia now needs as much as $95 a barrel to defray the costs after announcing the equivalent of $129 billion in new spending.

For some OPEC members, the IEA oil release adds salt to a wound opened up at OPEC’s meeting earlier this month. The United States, which is the world’s largest oil consumer, had sought help from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil exporter, to fill the supply gap left by Libya. Saudi Arabia argued at the OPEC meeting in favor of raising members’ production quotas, but the group walked away with no consensus agreement to change output. Saudi Arabia then pledged to unilaterally raise its output–a contentious move that remains a sore point within OPEC.

Saudi Arabia has said it would boost production by 1 million barrels a day. The IEA has said its preliminary numbers show the kingdom has already increased output by about 500,000 barrels a day. Kuwait has also said it could hike its production by up to 200,000 barrels a day this summer.

On Thursday, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said the emergency release was taken to make up for a delay before Saudi supplies hit the market.

Despite this, some officials from OPEC countries reacted angrily. “This is surprising and unjustified,” an official from a Gulf OPEC member told Dow Jones. “The agency is acting on its own, and we don’t see a need for the release of emergency stocks.”

“We will feel the impact of the drop in prices. It will cause prejudice to oil producers,” said a delegate from another OPEC member.

This reaction jarred with comments from the IEA’s deputy director Richard Jones, who said OPEC members had been consulted ahead of the decision to release stocks.

A senior official in the Obama administration said, “The action taken today is being done with full consultation with the major producing countries. It’s intended to complement the effort of many countries, including Saudi Arabia.”

OPEC has said the divisiveness among its members has more to do with economics than politics, though unrest this year in the Middle East and North Africa has deepened existing rifts within the group.

“The global economy has not turned around enough” to justify more oil supply, an OPEC delegate said.

The IEA said its surprise move–only the third emergency release in the agency’s history–is designed to address a real oil shortage rather than about influencing oil prices.

But the oil market swiftly reacted to the pledged influx of extra supply.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery ended down 4.6% at $91.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell as low as $89.69 a barrel earlier in the session, their lowest level since Feb. 22. August Brent crude oil futures settled down 6.1% at $107.26 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

“If Brent continues south, down through $100 … I think you’ll start to hear talk about OPEC cutting [its oil production], and this could include the Saudis,” said Michael Wittner, oil analyst at Societe Generale in New York.

Around 1.5 million barrels a day of Libyan production have been shut down since the civil war began there in February. Previous IEA stock releases were of a similar size and followed the first Gulf War and Hurricane Katrina. In a smaller action, the agency also relaxed its stock-holding requirements on Japan after Japan was unable to import some petroleum supplies following the earthquake and tsunami this year.

The IEA’s move Thursday may jeopardize a tacit agreement between Saudi Arabia, as the de facto OPEC leader, and the IEA to consult each other about oil supply intervention in order to avoid a glut.

After Saudi oil-supply increases and an IEA inventory release in the first Gulf war drove down oil prices, the Saudis and the IEA struck an informal bargain whereby the latter would only use emergency releases if OPEC producers refused to hike output, according to a 2003 Wall Street Journal article.

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency decided to deliver more oil to the market even after Saudi Arabia had said it would boost output. Some analysts suggested they believe the IEA’s move was directed against the producers’ group, despite IEA comments to the contrary.

“It’s a move against OPEC, not the Saudis,” said independent oil analyst John Hall. “But it may cause a rift of some kind” between the Saudis and the IEA.

Another oil analyst said the IEA’s action could backfire if it alienates oil producers. “The consumer-producer dialogue is going to run into some troubled waters as [Saudi Arabia] has begun to increase its production. The incentive to raise production is now lessened,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas.