انقلابی که دنیا را خواهد لرزاند ـ ۲

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استعفای نخست وزیر آزاروف با آن مضمون و عقب نشینی یانوکویچ و پارلمان تا اینجا،  بدین معنی است که آنها شکست خویش را پذیرفته اند و اگر اپوزیسیون بخواهد تا حذف کامل آنها با قهر خیابانی و میدانی خود پیش رود، کمکی به نظم سیاسی دموکراتیک فردای کشور نمیکند. از هم اکنون، هم یانوکویچ و هم دیگر دولتمران رژیم او برای  آن تغیرات لازمی در قانون اساسی که امر تقسیم قدرت را در ساختار حکومت  برسمیت بشناسد و بدان رسمیت دهد آماده شده اند. چنین بنظر میرسد که قدرت سیاسی هم اکنون از کاخ ریاست جمهوری به میدان استقلال کیف انتقال یافته است . آرسنیی  یاتسنویک، رهبر حزب فادرلند ( حزب تیمشنکو نخست وزیر زندانی سابق) گفت که امید وار است که یانوکویچ و پارلمان، بزودی یک کمیته کارشناسی برای بازبینی کامل قانون اساسی را تعین کنند. در حقثیقت تغیر قانون اساسی اوکرائین بمعنی قانون اساسی سازی از آن رابطه قدرتی است که هم اکنون در جامعه حالت واقعی بخود گرفته است.

UKRAINE_2805100b

قدرت سیاسی دیگر عملاً از کاخ ریاست جمهوری و نخست وزیری به پشت سنگرهای میدان استقلال انتقال یافته است

نخست وزیر اوکرائین میکولای آزاروف استعفاء داد و پارلمان اوکرائین در اجرای  عقب نشینی هایی که یوناکویچ وعده داده  داده بود تصمیم به لغو قوانین فوق العاده ایی گرفت که  ۴ روز پیش خودش برای محدود کردن آزادیها وضع کرده بود گرفت و قرار است  قانون عفو عمومی را هم با این شرط که تظاهرات کنندگان به سنگر بندیهای خیابانی و اشغال مؤسسات پایان دهند تصویب  کند.

۳ روز پیش، یانوکویچ به دو تن از رهبران اپوزیسیون  ارسنیی یاتسنیوک رهبر حزب  فادر لند  و ویتالی کلیتسچکو قبلاً پیشنهاد به ترتیب پست های نخستوزیری و معاونت آنرا داد. در آنهنگام که یانوکویچ این پیشنهاد را داد، میشد آنرا یک مانور برای از هم پاشاندن اتحاد مخالفین تلقی کرد که این دو رهبر اپوزیسیون هم آنرا نپذیرفتند ولی با کمال هوشیاری اعلام کردند که به مذاکره با یانو کویچ ادامه خواهند داد. اینک دیگر بحثی از مانور درمیان نیست.

آزاروف در استعفاء نامه خود از پست نخست وزیری ذکر کرده بود که برای اجتناب از متلاشی شدن مملکت و جنگ داخلی کنار میرود تا راه را برای مصالحه هموار سازد. در اصالت این ادعا و توجیه بسختی میتوان تردید کرد زیرا واقعاً وضع چنین میباشد. اینک دو روز است درگیری بین نیروهای پلیس و معترضین بنحو کاملاً محسوسی فروکش کرده است هرچند در شهرهای جنوبی و شرقی که ادعا میشد بعلت روسی بودنشان نفوذ داشتن یانوکویچ در آنجا بسیار است،  تظاهرات تازه شروع شده که در برخی موارد هم توأم با خشونت بوده است، ولی چون مهم، حوادث کیف است میتوان با قدری احتیاط گفت که هم،  یانوکویچ دیگر فهمیده است که رئیس جمهور واقعی و صاحب اقتدار اوکرائین نیست و هم اپوزیسیون پس از اعتماد بنفس کافی یافتن و اطمینان از پیروزی خودلزومی به ادامه تشنج نمی بیند.  پیروزی هم اکنون بنحو بازگشت ناپذیری تأمین شده است و حالا هرچه فرایند انتقال قدرت یا تقسیم واقعی قدرت کم هزینه تر انجام شود، بنفع مردم اوکرائین و کل منطقه است چون  هیچ کس سودی از ادامه درگیری نمیبرد.

استعفای نخست وزیر آزاروف با آن مضمون و عقب نشینی یانوکویچ و پارلمان تا اینجا،  بدین معنی است که آنها شکست خویش را پذیرفته اند و اگر اپوزیسیون بخواهد تا حذف کامل آنها با قهر خیابانی و میدانی خود پیش رود، کمکی به نظم سیاسی دموکراتیک فردای کشور نمیکند. از هم اکنون هم،  یانوکویچ و هم دیگر دولتمران رژیم برای  آن تغیرات لازمی در قانون اساسی که امر تقسیم قدرت را در ساختار حکومت  برسمیت بشناسد و بدان رسمیت دهد آماده شده اند. چنین بنظر میرسد که قدرت سیاسی هم اکنون از کاخ ریاست جمهوری به میدان استقلال کیف انتقال یافته است . آرسنیی  یاتسنویک، رهبر حزب فادرلند ( حزب تیمشنکو نخست وزیر زندانی سابق) گفت که امید وار است که یانوکویچ و پارلمان، بزودی یک کمیته کارشناسی برای بازبینی کامل قانون اساسی را تعین کنند. در حقثیقت تغیر قانون اساسی اوکرائین بمعنی قانون اساسی سازی از آن رابطه قدرتی است که هم اکنون در جامعه حالت واقعی بخود گرفته است.

نشریه واشنگتن پست در چاپ امروز خود مینویسد: ” اضمحلال دولت (دولت اوکرائین)، بالقوه یک ضربه شدید به رئیس جمهور روسیه ولادیمیر پوتین است که از یانوکویچ پشتیبانی کرد و سعی  نمود تا او را از نزدیکی بیشتر به غرب باز دارد.”

و اما بموازات حوادثی که در اوکرائین میگذرد، دیروز پوتین نیز برای دیدار با نمایندگان اتحادیه اروپا به بروکسل رفت تا در کنفرانس مشترکی  با نمایندگان ااتحادیه شرکت کند که موضوع عمده آن، تحولات اوکرائین است. کاترین اشتون دبیر اتحادیه اروپا بلافاصله پس از یک دیدار و مذاکره کوتاه با پوتین در مقر آن اتحادیه ، رهسپار کیف شد تا بین دولت و اپوزیسیون اوکرائین میانجی گری کند. پوتین در اظهاراتی که از سوزش زخم نقش یافتن اتحادیه اروپا در بحران اوکرائین ناشی میشود، به نمایندگان اتحادیه گفت چرا باید اتحادیه اروپا خود را وارد مسائل داخلی اوکرائین کند؟ مگر روسیه خود را در مسائل (یونان ) دخالت میدهد که اتحاده اروپا هم به امور اوکرائین دخالت کند او افزود که اوکرائین نیازی به میانجی ندارد و خودش مسائل خود را حل میکند.

جریان دیدار پوتین از بروکسل بی حاشیه نبود.  آنطور که برخی روزنامه ها نوشتند، سازمان دهندگان کنفرانس بروکسل برای اولین بار و برخلاف عرف و رسم معمول  اتحادیه در پذیرایی از مهمانان، ولادیمیر پوتین را به نهار جمعی دعوت نکردند. رسانه هایی که این خبر را گزارش کردند از این رفتار باعنوان تحقیر رهبر روسیه نام بردند.

درحالیکه گاردین امروز نقل میکند که چند مقام روسی گفته اند که اگر اپوزیسیون قدرت را در اوکرائین بدست بگیرد مسئله اعطای وام ۱۵ میلیاردی به آن کشور از طرف روسیه منتفی است، برخی رسانه های دیگر اظهارات پوتین را دایر براینکه؛ حتی اگر در اوکرائین اپوزیسیون هم بر سر کار بیاید، روسیه به وعده خود برای اعطای آن وام و تخفیف قیمت گاز پایبند است،  را درج کرده اند که بنظر من اگر درست و صادقانه باشد، حاکی از این است که رهبر روسیه خود را برای پذیرفتن “اوکرائینی” که به خانواده اتحادیه اروپا نزدیک شده و دیر یازود هم کاملاً بدان خواهد پیوست، آماده کرده است. اگر این فرض درست باشد نمیتوان این امکان را هم کاملاً از نظر دور داشت که با توجه به تجربه اوکرائین  شاید رهبری روسیه هم بفکر بیفتد تا روابط خود را با غرب و اتحادیه اروپا بر اساس توازن  واقعی شکل گرفته جدید تنظیم کند و دیگر دست از خیالات و توهماتِ بازی کردن نقش ابرقدرت اروپایی بردارد و بپذیرد که یک دولت مقتدر قابل محاسبه در اروپا نیست و بپذیرد که برای یک قدرت عمده اروپایی بودن تنها داشتن زرادخانه اتمی و چاههای نفت زیاد نیز کافی نیست.

اپوزیسیون اوکرائین پس از استعفای نخست وزیر، بر استعفای خود یانوکویچ پافشاری میکند. بنظر من  دیگر تعادل قدرت در آن کشور چنان  بسود اپوزیسیون بهم خورده است که اگر او استعفاء هم ندهد جز از تبعیت از اپوزیسیون چاره دیگری ندارد و در موقعیتی نیست که سرپیچی کند. ولی از سویی رهبری اپوزیسیون هم نمیتواند قدرت رادیکالهای میدان استقلال را که بر استعفای یانوکویچ اصرار دارند را نادیدیده بگیرند. باید امید وار بود که این مسئله نیز بخوبی حل شود.

آنچه باقی میماند ترکشها و بازخورد تحولات اوکرائین در خود روسیه است. اینکه این تحولات  بخشهای ناراضی مردم روس و اپوزیسیون آنجا را تحت تأثیراقرار نداده باشد تصوری درست نیست ولی حد این تأثرات هم چقدر خواهد بود باید منتظر پایان کامل دراماتیک اوکرائین و پایان بازیهای زمستانی در سوشی روسیه بود که قطعاً افکار عمومی را بسوی خود جلب خواهد  کرد.

افزوده:

دیلی تلگراف دیروز نوشت :  معترضین اوکرائین همه آنچه را که میخواستند بردند بجز استعفای خود رئیس جمهور. یک روز دراماتیک شاهد تسلیم رئیس جمهور یانوکویچ به خواستهای عمده  صفوف انبوه توده های مخالفین خود بود.

Ukraine’s protesters win everything but President’s

resignation

A dramatic day in Kiev sees President Viktor Yanukovych concede to key

demands of massed ranks of his opponents

David Blair

By , Kiev

6:50PM GMT 28 Jan 2014

Ukraine’s president dismissed the entire government and abandoned nine hated security laws on Tuesday, conceding everything to Kiev’s demonstrators except his own resignation.

As he struggled to end the occupation of his capital by tens of thousands of protesters, President Viktor Yanukovych gave into a series of their demands, sacrificing his prime minister and every member of the cabinet.

An emergency session of the country’s parliament tried to appease the marchers by repealing nine draconian security laws by 361 votes to two. It was the passage of these measures, banning almost all forms of public protest, which had galvanised the protests against Mr Yanukovych.

Yet only 12 days after approving the laws, MPs scrapped them without debate. All were abandoned during a single vote that took less than a minute.

“Everything the opposition wanted is in this package,” said Volodymyr Rybak, the speaker. As recently as Friday, the president had promised only to “amend” and “review” the laws.

.

A few streets away, calm descended on the barricades around Independence Square as parliament bowed to the protesters. The main rampart on Grushevskogo street, previously the scene of round-the-clock confrontations between masked demonstrators and serried ranks of police, was unusually quiet. The taunts died away, a police water cannon stood unused and both sides appeared to respect an undeclared truce.

After the parliamentary vote, Mr Yanukovych proceeded to jettison his allies. Mykola Azarov announced his resignation as prime minister “for the sake of the peaceful settlement of the conflict”.

Mr Yanukovych then stated that every other minister had been dismissed. “The president has accepted the resignation of the government as well,” said an official statement.

It was unclear whether the concessions would satisfy the protesters – or whether nothing less than Mr Yanukovych’s own resignation will now end the unrest.

World boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, head of the opposition UDAR (Punch) party, said the mass resignation was “not victory but a step to victory”.

Behind the snow-clad barricades in Independence Square – popularly known as “the Maidan” – there was no mood of jubilation over the president’s retreat. Instead, people promised to stay until he resigned.

”Of course we must continue until the very end,” said Dina Sokolova, a 60-year-old demonstrator. “I’m an old woman, but I’m here at the protest until Yanukovych goes.”

She added: “I asked my daughter ‘Why don’t you have another child?’ She said to me: ‘It’s impossible to have a second child because I’m afraid for the future of the children of Ukraine.’ This is shameful for our people and our country.”

Mrs Sokolova carried a banner reading “Ukraine is ruled by bandits and ex-prisoners”, an allusion to the fact that Mr Yanukovych served time in jail for theft and assault in his youth.

The demonstrations began on Dec 1 after the president spurned an agreement for closer integration with the European Union in favour of accepting a $15 billion loan from Russia.

President Vladimir Putin made clear that Russia would continue to disburse this money regardless of who is in power in Ukraine, adding that the EU should stay out of the nation’s affairs.

“I think that the more intermediaries there are, the more problems there are. At the very least, Russia will never interfere,” he said after attending an EU summit in Brussels. His comments were seen as a pointed reference to Baroness Ashton, the EU’s foreign policy chief, who had previously been cheered by protesters in Kiev and who was due to arrive in the city again late on Tuesday evening.

The opposition is wary of Mr Yanukovych’s concessions, pointing out that Ukraine’s constitution gives the president supreme executive power, so the prime minister and cabinet count for little. Repealing the security laws will also require his signature. Some fear that he will set conditions, perhaps demanding an end to the protests first.

Posters of Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister who was jailed in 2011 on trumped-up corruption charges, adorn the stage in Independence Square. Yesterday, her 33-year-old daughter, Eugenia, told the Telegraph that the president’s moves were “not enough for people who want real systemic change”.

She added: “I think the protests will continue. If people have been there for almost two months, they will not leave now.”

Ms Tymoshenko predicted that the rallies would go on regardless of the views of any mainstream politician. “I don’t think my opinion or the opinion of any of the opposition leaders could really change the mood of the people,” she said

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گاردین و سفر پوتین به بروکسل

A former Ukrainian foreign ministry official said the Kremlin was exerting huge pressure on Yanukovych behind the scenes, urging him to deal more harshly with anti-government protesters. “Ukraine is out of money. If Russia stops financing Yanukovych, he will be unable to pay his loyal supporters,” the official said.

Vladimir Putin tells Brussels to stay out of Ukraine’s political crisis

Russian president dismisses EU decision to send envoy to Kiev: ‘The more intermediaries there are, the more problems there are’

Vladimir Putin in Brussels

Vladimir Putin speaking in Brussels: it was the Russian president’s first meeting with EU leaders since they clashed last November over the future of Ukraine. Photograph: Rex Features/Isopix

President Vladmir Putin warned Europe to keep its hands off Ukraine on Tuesday, as Brussels sent its top foreign policy envoy to Kiev to try to mediate in the 10-week stand-off between President Viktor Yanukovychand the opposition on the streets.

Russia‘s intervention in Brussels followed Yanukovych’s biggest concession to the opposition, the sacking of his hardline prime minister and government and a promise to repeal draconian laws criminalising protest and freedom of speech.

Putin met EU leaders for the first time since November’s clash between the Kremlin and Europe over the future of Ukraine triggered the crisis in Kiev. Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, took part in the meetings with Putin in Brussels then travelled to Kiev to try to mediate between the opposing sides.

“The more intermediaries there are, the more problems there are,” Putin said. “I am not sure Ukraine needs intermediaries.” He pointedly noted that European leaders would complain if Russia sent envoys to mediate in the Greek crisis of the past four years.

“I can only imagine what the reaction would be if in the heat of the crisis in Greece or Cyprus, our foreign minister came to an anti-European rally and began urging people to do something. This would not be good,” Putin said. “I’m sure the Ukrainian people will sort this out and Russia is not going to interfere.”

The president of the European council, Herman Van Rompuy, insisted Lady Ashton would seek to reconcile the two sides in Kiev on the basis of “democratic rules” and aim to prevent an escalation of violence.

Earlier, in what appeared a significant concession to the opposition, Yanukovych fired his hardline prime minister, Mykola Azarov, and his government. It remains to be seen whether the pro-Russian president would seek to include opposition figures in a new government and whether the opposition would agree. The central demand from the protesters is Yanukovych’s resignation and early presidential elections.

Yanukovych also caved in to pressure from the opposition, Europe and the US by promising to scrap repressive legislation passed a fortnight ago curbing freedom of speech and assembly.

The moves came after four rounds of talks between the embattled president and three opposition leaders. The laws severely curtailed freedom of assembly, with critics suggesting they in effect ushered in a dictatorship.

“We revoked the laws against which all the country has revolted,” Arseniy Yatseniuk, a prominent opposition leader, said after the parliamentary vote. He called on Yanukovych to immediately sign the repeal of the legislation into law.

The street revolt against Yanukovych erupted in November after he reneged on free trade and political integration pacts with the EU, turning to Moscow which offered him $15bn (£۱۱bn) in loans and reduced energy prices.

While Van Rompuy and the EU commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, stressed yesterday there was no contradiction between Ukraine’s agreements with Brussels and Moscow, Putin made plain that his deal with Yanukovych was incompatible with Kiev’s signing up to the EU’s offers.

“We would most likely fail to maintain the preferential agreements with Ukraine if it signs the [EU] association agreement,” he said. He added that Moscow’s deal with Kiev did not depend on the shape of the new government to be formed, but stressed that the Kremlin would need to make sure it would be able to recoup the loans.

“We can’t pretend that everything’s all right when it’s not allright,” said Barroso.

The Russians and the Europeans agreed to set up a working group of experts to discuss the detail of the agreements being offered to Kiev by Brussels. That appeared to be a concession to Moscow since it was an early demand by Yanukovych rejected by the EU in November.

Azarov, who has described protesters as “terrorists”, had offered his resignation. He said he hoped the move would help achieve a peaceful resolution to the crisis that has gripped the country for more than two months.

“The conflict situation which has come about in the country is threatening the economic and social development of Ukraine, creating a threat to the whole of Ukrainian society and to each citizen,” he said.

The opposition responded cautiously, saying it was unclear who would replace him.

A former Ukrainian foreign ministry official said the Kremlin was exerting huge pressure on Yanukovych behind the scenes, urging him to deal more harshly with anti-government protesters. “Ukraine is out of money. If Russia stops financing Yanukovych, he will be unable to pay his loyal supporters,” the official said.

It was Yanukovych’s decision to accept Russian money – and to reject a partnership agreement with the European Union – that first prompted massive pro-European street demonstrations two months ago. Radical groups have since joined the protests, which have resulted in violent clashes, at least four civilians killed and parts of central Kiev transformed into a battle zone. Dozens of activists have been arrested and several prominent leaders have disappeared. Over the weekend the government mooted the idea of imposing a state of emergency.

On Tuesday, opposition leaders said they would not abandon their uprising until their main demands were met. The demands include Yanukovych’s resignation, fresh presidential elections, and an amnesty for those rounded up by police in street protests.

“It’s not a victory. It’s just a step towards victory,” Vitali Klitschko, leader of the UDAR party and former world boxing champion, said of Azarov’s resignation. Klitschko also reaffirmed his wish not to work in a new cabinet. Yatseniuk had earlier turned down an offer by Yanukovych to become prime minister. “Under no circumstances will I ever agree to work in Yanukovych’s government,” Klitschko said, adding that a change of prime minister would not change the government system, which needed “to get a restart”.

Pro-Yanukovych politicians did not support the sacking of Azarov, who has been head of the government since 2010 when Yanukovych took power. “This will lead to additional destabilisation in the country,” said Oleg Tsariov, of the ruling Party of Regions.

Parliament was due to vote late on Tuesday on an amnesty for hundreds of arrested protesters. Yanukovych sought to tie the amnesty to opposition pledges that the protest would be called off. It seems unlikely that the decisions would placate the tens of thousands of protesters and prompt them to leave the streets and destroy dozens of barricades that protect the Kiev protest camp, now known as Euromaidan (Eurosquare), from thousands of police. “I’m sure our fight will go on,” said Klitschko.

The leaders of four central European EU countries bordering Ukraine are to meet in Budapest on Wednesday to discuss the crisis.

 

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