بهارعربی، بیداری اسلامی یا بیداری ضد اسلامیستی

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ترکیب ائتلاف مورد فوق؛ آن فصل مشترک تاریخی و نقطه عطف تحول آفرینی است که  با پل زدن  بر روی تفاوتهای گفتمانی سیاسی/اجتماعی، ایدئو لوژیک و پدر کشتگی های تاریخی؛ به مضمون و ماهیت  جنبش بهار عربی تبدیل گردیده و میرود که سرنوشت آنرا در تاریخ منطقه با همین مضمون و محتوا  ثبت کند. این فرایند آشتی تاریخی و سیاسی میرود تا بستر دموکراسی و توسعه همه جانبه را از مراکش تا اردن، از لبنان و عراق تا کشورهای حاشیه خلیج فارس و حتی افغانستان را رقم بزند البته با فاصله های زمانی مختلف و تنش های گاه تند شونده اجتمایی و سیاسی.بنا بر این بهارعربی نه آنچنان که مقام معظم رهبری ایران ما فرمودند بیداری اسلامی بلکه جنبش بیداری و هوشیاری علیه سرمایه سازی سیاسی از اعتقادات دینی مردم و اتوریته تاریخی روحانیت توسط کلاهبرداران دینی و سیاسی است. کلاهبردارانی که جز به کسب قدرت، بهر وسیله و با استفاده از هر روش نمیتوانند بیاندیشند. بهارعرب بدین معنا و در این مسیراگر چشم انداز رویای ترقی، آزادی و سرافرزی انسانی ملل منطقه است، کابوس سهمگین ورشکستگی برای شارلاتانیسمی است که بنام دین به وجدان و شعور مردم شبیخون زد تا سرمایه های تاریخی و فرهنگی آنها را  بنفع خود از چنگشان در آورد.

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 بیداری اسلامی یا بیداری ضد اسلامیستی

چنین بنظر میرسد که بهارعربی که از قریب ۴ سال پیش علیه دیکتاتوریهای بازمانده از دوران جهان دوقطبی و جنگ سرد منطقه را فرا گرفت، به سرمنزل تاریخی خود نزدیک میشود. در انتخابات یکشنبه گذشته تونس؛ حزب ندای تونس که یک حزب ملی و لیبرال دموکرات است(در واقع یک جبهه بسیار وسیع)، بر رقیب اسلامگرای اخوان المسلمین خود، دریکی از سالمترین رقابتهایی انتخاباتی درخور دموکراسی خاور میانه ایی، پیروز شد. اهمیت پیروزی حزب ندای تونس همچنانکه بسیاری رسانه ها و ناظران سیاسی معتبر دنیا اعلام کرده اند نقطه عطف یا آغازی برای استقرار دموکراسی در منطقه و کشور های اسلامی است. تجربه تونس برای اسلامگریان آنجا همان اندازه آموزنده  بود که برا ی سکولاریستهای چپ و لیبرال آن سرزمین.

ملت تونس در این انتخابات آزاد پس از تجربه عملی ۴ ساله خود به اسلامگرایی و اخوان المسلمین نه گفت و طبقه کارگر تونس هم که  عمدتاً در فدراسیون نیرومند سراسری سندیکاها و اتحادیه های کارگری متشکل میباشد؛ نه در کنار چپ کمونیستی بلکه در جبهه لیبرال دموکراسی و ملی گرایی راهبردی ندای تونس ایستاد.

اهمیت  تاریخی درس آموزی اسلامسیتهای تونس در این است که آنها به تجربه خود و پس از مشاهده سرنوشت انحصار طلبی قانون شکنانه اخوان المسلمین مصر دریافتند، که با سرمایه سازی از  دین و مذهب برای مدتی طولانی نمیتوان بر سریر قدرت ماند و سرمایه دینی را در یک میدان رقابت آمیز سیاسی سالم نمیتوان به سرمایه سیاسی و قدرت سخت افزاری حکومتی (مانند نمونه ایران) تبدیل کرد. آنها دریافتند که مردم تونس با مشاهده تجربه تراژیک انقلاب اسلامی در ایران و تجربه یکساله اخوان بر مصدر قدرت در مصر، حاضر نیستند چشم بسته دنبال آنها بیایند و آزموده را از نو بیازمایند. آنها دریافتند که اقشار بیدار شده متوسط جامعه که تروریسم اسلامی و استبداد خشن تجربه شده در ایران را دیده اند بهیچوجه؛ نه تنها حاضر به تحمل اسلامیسم و شریعتگرایی نیستند بلکه؛  چه در نمونه مصر علیه اخوان المسلمین آنکشور، چه در نمونه تونس علیه النهضت، وچه در نمونه  درحال تجربه لیبی علیه انصارالشریعه( در بنغازی) و صبحگاه لیبی(در طرابلس)، همه در صف واحد، با عبور از جنگ و جدلهای ایدئو لوژیک و تاریخی علیه خطر اسلامگرایی با هم متحد خواهند شد.

دو هفته پیش رشید قانونوشی رهبر النهضت در یک مصاحبه یا سخنرانی پیش از انتخاباتی گفت که تونس را با ۵۰+۱ کرسی پارلمانی نمیتوان اداره کرد زیرا تونس نه یک دموکراسی نهادینه شده و جا افتاده  نوع اروپایی بلکه یک کشور در حال گذار است. او گفت فقط یک ائتلاف وسیع فرا حزبی و ملی میتواند تونس را نجات دهد و برای دموکراسی در آن بستر سازی کند. او گفت که حزب او به کثرت گرایی سیاسی و تنوع آرا باور دارد و وفادار خواهد ماند.

این سخنان قانوشی؛ که  حزبش پس از انقلاب سعی داشت قدرت را قبضه و انحصاری کند باید هم جدی گرفت و هم، آنرا پیامی ـ خود آگاه و یا ناخود آگاه ـ  به جریانهای سیاسی مذهبی در منطقه و کشورهای اسلامی تلقی کرد. قانوشی میداند که جز برگزیدن راه تعامل با دیگر جریانهای سیاسی راه دیگری برای زنده ماندن سیاسی ندارد امری که خود مستلزم مدرنیزه شدن النهضت و اتخاذ رویکرد سکولاریستی در عرصه دولتمداری و رقابت سیاسی است. قانوشی دریافته است که دوران تبدیل و تسعیر اتوریته و سرمایه مذهبی به سیاسی با استفاده از غفلت و بی تجربگی مردم بسر آمده است و تحولات مصر نقطه پایان تاریخی یک چنین انقضای تاریخ مصرف گفتمان دینی در عرصه سیاست بوده است.  قانوشی نخواست و نمیخواهد به سرنوشت محمد مرسی و شاطر در مصر دوچار شود.

بنظر من اسلامگریان تونسی با  اتخاذ این رویکرد؛  نقشه راه اسلامگرایان را در کشورهای اسلامی تدوین کردند و خود میروند تا مانند احزاب دموکرات و سوسیالیست مسیحی اروپا به بخشی از منظومه و ساختار سیاسی و فرایند دموکراتیزاسیون کشور خود تبدیل گردند.

اگر تجربه تونس؛ نمونه تصویه حساب مدنی و رقابتیِ آزاد با اسلامگرایی در آنکشور است؛ تجربه  سرنگونی اخوان المسلمین مصر نمونه دیگری است که بدون آن، تحولات بعدی در تونس و قریباً در لیبی  و سایر کشورهای منطقه هم ناممکن میبود. مشابه چنین روندی در عراق هم*، هم اکنون آغاز گردیده است.

در لیبی نیروهای سیاسی و میلیشیایی سکولار پس از ۳ سال سرگردانی و جنگ و جدل بدور پارلمان جدید، دولت اجماعی آن و ارتش در حال تجدید سازمان ملی  کشور گرد آمده، همگی علیه اسلامگرایی و تروریسم اسلامی و اخوانی متحد میشوند. در دو هفته گذشته ارتش ملی و نیروی نظامی تحت فرماندهی ژنرال حفتر تعرض مشترک خود را به انصار الشریعه در بنغازی آغاز و بیشترین قسمتهای این شهر را بشمول فرودگاه آنرا ازآنها پس گرفته و در حال پاکسازی جریانات تروریستی  اسلامگرا در آن شهر هستند.

دولت و مجلس( تبعیدی یا مهاجر) مستقر در شهرتوبروک که برآمده از یک ائتلاف غیر رسمی ضد اسلامگرایی است از سوی جامعه جهانی برسمیت شناخته شده و بتدریج عرصه مورد کنترل خود را  در سراسر کشور گسترش میدهد.

اگر در مصر با یک قیام سریع مردمی و بکمک ارتش، اسلامگرایی سرکوب و خطر آن دفع شد، و اگر در تونس همان نتیجه در جریان یک رقابت سالم انتخاباتی حاصل گردید، نبرد نیروهای سکولار با اسلامگرایی در لیبی میرود تا خشونت بار و خونین شود که احتمالاً به پیروزی به یک سکولاریسم رادیکال در آن کشور خواهد انجامید چون مردم لیبی بیشتر از تونس و مصر از اسلامگرایان صدمه دیده اند.

 در مصر تدارک برای انتخابات پارلمانی در جریان است . احزاب مختلف ائتلافهای مختلف تشکیل میدهند ولی همه آنها یک وجه مشترک دارند و آنهم حذف کامل اخوان المسمین از صحنه سیاسی مصر و بازگشت ناپذیر کردن آن است. شاید، پارادوکسال، بتوان گفت در بین جو رایج و شایع ضد اخوانی که در برخی موارد تا مرز هیستریک هم پیش میرود،  باز ژنرال السیسی است که بیشترین اغماض  را نسبت به این جریان از خود نشان میدهد. ژنرال السیسی چندی پیش گفت اگر اخوان المسلمین علناً خشونت و تروریسم را محکوم کرده و از آن فاصله بگیرد مانعی برای پیوستن آن به روند دموکراتیزاسیون و مشارکت وسیع سیاسی در مصر وجود ندارد.

در بین ائتلافهای تشکیل شده در مصر برای مبارزه انتخاباتی؛ جریانهای تازه تأسیس شده لیبرال دموکرات و بخش دموکرات  ررژیم مبارک توانسته است بیشترین نیروی سیاسی را در پشت سر خود جمع کند. این جریان ائتلافی بنا به گزارش اهرام آنلاین( در زیر)، توانسته است بسیاری نیروهای لیبرال، چپ و فدراسیون اتحادیه های کارگری و دهقانانی را بخود جلب کند. در این اتئلاف از نیروهای سابقاً ضد مبارک تا نیروهای دموکرات وابسته به آن رژیم وجود دارند.

ترکیب ائتلاف مورد فوق؛ آن فصل مشترک    تاریخی و نقطه عطف تحول آفرینی است که  با پل زدن  بر روی تفاوتهای گفتمانی سیاسی/اجتماعی، ایدئو لوژیک و پدر کشتگی های تاریخی؛ به مضمون و ماهیت  جنبش بهار عربی تبدیل گردیده و میرود که سرنوشت آنرا در تاریخ منطقه با همین مضمون و محتوا  ثبت کند. این فرایند آشتی تاریخی و سیاسی میرود تا بستر دموکراسی و توسعه همه جانبه را از مراکش تا اردن، از لبنان و عراق تا کشورهای حاشیه خلیج فارس و حتی افغانستان را رقم بزند البته با فاصله های زمانی مختلف و تنش های گاه تند شونده اجتماعی و سیاسی.

بنا بر این بهارعربی   نه آنچنان که مقام معظم رهبری ایران ما فرمودند بیداری اسلامی بلکه جنبش بیداری و هوشیاری علیه سرمایه سازی سیاسی از اعتقادات دینی مردم و اتوریته تاریخی روحانیت توسط کلاهبرداران دینی و سیاسی است. کلاهبردارانی که جز به کسب قدرت، بهر وسیله و با استفاده از هر روش نمیتوانند بیاندیشند. بهارعرب بدین معنا و در این مسیراگر چشم انداز رویای ترقی، آزادی و سرافرزی انسانی ملل منطقه است، کابوس سهمگین ورشکستگی برای شارلاتانیسمی است که بنام دین به وجدان و شعور مردم شبیخون زد تا سرمایه های تاریخی و فرهنگی آنها را  بنفع خود از چنگشان در آورد. بهار عربی نه! بیداری اسلامی بلکه بیداری  ضد اسلامگرایی است.

* دو روز پیش اید علاوی معاون ریئیس جمهور و مسئول آشتی ملی در ان کشور گفت “این” آخرین شانس ملت برای غلبه بر سکتاریانیسم (فرقه گزائی) است.  منظور او اینست که غلبه بر سکتارنیسم بدون مدرن و و سکولار کردن نظام سیاسی یکپارچگی عراق دوامی نخواهد آورد.

Former NDP figures prepare for strong showing in Egypt’s

parliamentary polls

 

Agreeing with El-Moselhi, Nabil Zaki, spokesman for the Tagammu ‎Party, also insists that the Egyptian Front is not ‎a political cover for the NDP remnants. “Tagammu joined this ‎coalition because we share the belief that the Muslim Brotherhood ‎and other political Islam forces are the biggest threat to Egypt ‎and that all should be united against helping them return to ‎parliamentary and political life again,” said Zaki.‎

NDP

File photo: Men sit under election banners of Abdel-Halim Allam (R), a candidate of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), in Alexandria some 220 km (136.7 miles) north of Cairo, November 27, 2010. (Photo: Reuters)

New coalitions feature a number of former officials from the Hosni Mubarak regim

AhramOnline

Gamal Essam El-Din , Sunday 26 Oct 2014

With the Muslim Brotherhood banned and secular opposition parties‎ divided, key members of the former ‎regime of Hosni Mubarak are expecting to perform well in Egypt’s coming parliamentary elections. ‎

Beginning on Monday, the Egyptian Front, an electoral ‎coalition led by a number of the former Mubarak-era officials and members of ‎Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP), will hold the first of a series of public rallies in ‎preparation for the upcoming parliamentary elections.‎

According to Mostafa Bakri, editor of the independent weekly ‎Al-Osboa and the coalition’s media spokesperson, the Egyptian ‎Front’s first public rally will be held in Qena in Upper Egypt on Monday.

“It will ‎be followed by weekly public rallies in the cities of Cairo, ‎Alexandria, Tanta and Assuit and so on,” said Bakri, adding that ‎‎”these are not part of the election campaigns, but rather public ‎conferences aimed at mobilising citizens to the polls and ‎alerting their attention to the dangers of the return of the Muslim ‎Brotherhood to parliament and political life.”‎

Mahmoud Nafadi, a parliamentary reporter and the ‎spokesperson for coalition member Modern Egypt Party said that “the Qena public rally will be held under the ‎slogan ‘the people, the army and the police are one hand ‎against terrorism.’”

“Under this slogan, which was adopted after ‎the terrorist attack in Sinai on Friday, we will do our best to ‎raise the awareness of the dangers of bringing Muslim ‎Brotherhood or any its allies back to parliament.”‎

The front’s leaders indicate that even though registration for the ‎polls has not been officially opened yet and the date for the elections has not been set, the ‎coalition has decided to prepare early for the elections.

“It is ‎no secret that the list of the front’s candidates in most of Egypt’s ‎‎۲۷ governorates has already been finalised so that they can ‎lead a competitive campaign from the beginning,” said Bakri.‎

The last two months witnessed Egypt’s secular political parties ‎scrambling to form electoral alliances in a bid to win a majority ‎of seats in the upcoming parliament. ‎

According to Article 146 of the new constitution, the political ‎party or coalition that wins a majority of seats in parliament will ‎be asked by the president to form a new government. ‎

Emboldened by court rulings that ruled out imposing political ‎disenfranchisement on them, the remnants of the former ‎Mubarak regime and the defunct NDP rushed to form the ‎Egyptian Front electoral coalition.

It is mainly composed of the ‎National Movement, founded by Mubarak’s last prime minister ‎and 2012 presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq, the Misr Baladi ‎Party, founded by former interior minister Ahmed Gamaleddin, ‎and the Congress Party, founded by Mubarak’s former ‎foreign minister Amr Moussa.‎

The coalition also includes the Modern Egypt Party, the Geel ‎‎Party, the Democratic Al-Ghad Party, ‎the leftist Tagammu party. Three major labour ‎organisations are also members: the General Egyptian Federation of Trade ‎Unions, the Federation of Professional Syndicates, and ‎the General Syndicate of Farmers.‎

Bakri disclosed that two leftist parties – the Arab Nasserist ‎Party and the Qawmi Party – have also joined the ‎coalition.‎

The front selected Amin Radi, deputy chairman of the Congress ‎Party, as its secretary-general. Radi is a former airforce ‎pilot who was close to Mubarak, and was also a leading NDP official who was ‎selected to head the 2005-2010 parliament’s committee of ‎transport. ‎

The front has also appointed Ali El-Moselhi, a former minister of ‎social solidarity and a former member of NDP’s secretariat-‎general, as its general coordinator.‎

El-Moselhi told Al-Ahram newspaper that he expects that the ‎front will gain a large number of seats in the coming parliament ‎‎”and we hope we will gain the majority.”

“When Mubarak was ‎in power, opposition parties were always asserting that if he ‎left office, the NDP would evaporate in a second,” said ‎El-Moselhi, “but the NDP never evaporated after ‎Mubarak had left office simply because its deputies still have ‎deep-rooted business, familial and tribal links everywhere in ‎Egypt.”

“We counted for success in parliament during the ‎Mubarak years not so much on Mubarak’s ruling party as on our deep links with the Egyptian people,” asserted El-‎Moselhi, recalling that in 2005’s polls most of the NDP ‎candidates won as independents but joined the party in ‎parliament to swell its ranks. ‎

El-Moselhi said the front will introduce itself to the Egyptian ‎people not as former NDP figures or ex-Mubarak officials ‎but rather as a national coalition that includes a mixture of liberal ‎and leftist forces.‎

El-Moselhi believes that a lot of former NDP ‎deputies will choose to run as independents. “The major ‎reason for this is that the new election law reserves two thirds ‎of seats for independents and one third only for party-based ‎candidates,” he said.‎

Agreeing with El-Moselhi, Nabil Zaki, spokesman for the Tagammu ‎Party, also insists that the Egyptian Front is not ‎a political cover for the NDP remnants. “Tagammu joined this ‎coalition because we share the belief that the Muslim Brotherhood ‎and other political Islam forces are the biggest threat to Egypt ‎and that all should be united against helping them return to ‎parliamentary and political life again,” said Zaki.‎

Secular opposition parties have long complained that the ‎individual candidacy system helps candidates with money, ‎power and tribal links sweep parliament. “This ‎applies very much to NDP remnants who made a lot of wealth ‎under the Mubarak regime and who know how to ‎buy votes with money,” said Abdel-Ghaffar Shukr, chairman ‎of the Popular Socialist Alliance Party.

Shukr has submitted a ‎memo to Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, urging him to ‎intervene to amend the election law so as to prevent former NDP ‎figures from winning seats in parliament. ‎

Another three coalitions associated with the Mubarak regime in one way or another have also been formed ‎in recent weeks. The first is led by Kamal El-Ganzouri, a former ‎Mubarak old guard prime minister. El-Ganzouri said he does ‎not want to be the speaker of the coming parliament but he ‎wants to form a broad-based electoral alliance among secular ‎forces to win seats reserved to party lists only (120 seats).

“All ‎should know that the failure of creating this national electoral ‎alliance could open the door for political Islam forces to ‎infiltrate parliament again,” a source close to El-Ganzouri said ‎on 21 October.‎

El-Ganzouri made a lot of contacts with several secular forces, ‎on top of which the Egyptian Front, asking them to join his ‎electoral alliance – or the so-called El-Ganzouri alliance. ‎

Opposition parties see El-Ganzouri as mostly acting as a cover ‎for El-Sisi who, they say, wants a parliament ‎dominated by loyalists to his regime. A presidential spokesman ‎insisted last week that President El-Sisi has not asked anyone ‎to form an electoral alliance and that El-Ganzouri is acting on his ‎own.‎
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The second coalition – named the Independence Current – is ‎composed of a number of low-key political parties which were ‎created under the Mubarak regime. It is headed by Ahmed El-‎Fadali, chairman of the Democratic Peace Party and an ‎employee of the People’s Assembly (now renamed the House of ‎Representatives).‎

A third coalition under the title Together Long Live Egypt has also ‎come into being. According to its general coordinator Medhat ‎El-Haddad, the coalition mainly includes retired ‎military personnel who want to see Egypt remain a civilian ‎state and not fall again into the hands of political Islam.

“If we were not able to field candidates, we will ‎mobilise the families of our members – estimated at 14 million ‎– to vote against Islamists or any other anti-El-Sisi force,” El-‎Hadad told Al-Ahram daily.‎

All of the above coalitions are united by one platform: a deep ‎abhorrence of Muslim Brotherhood and a firm support for ‎President El-Sisi.

Yehia Qadri, deputy chairman of the National Movement ‎Party, told Al-Ahram that it is important for the coming ‎parliament to work in collaboration and harmony with ‎ El-Sisi because Egypt’s fragile political conditions ‎cannot stand any confrontation between the executive and ‎legislative branches of power.‎

There have been rumours that Ahmed Ezz, a billionaire steel ‎magnate who had acted as NDP’s secretary for organisational ‎affairs and was the right-hand man of Mubarak’s young son and ‎heir apparent Gamal, is now doing its best to gather former NDP men into a new political party. Ezz was released ‎from prison this year after paying a hefty fine of LE150 million pending trial ‎on charges of tax evasion, illegal profiteering and monopolistic ‎practices.‎

Nafadi, however, insists that Ezz has just met with his steel ‎company’s employees to review work conditions while he was ‎in jail rather discuss any election matters. “The best Ezz can do ‎is to fund the election campaigns of some former NDP deputies ‎who were close to him and who might contest the polls as ‎independents,” said Nafadi. ‎

Political analysts agree that the NDP-affiliated electoral ‎coalitions could perform well in the coming polls, but this is ‎not to the extent that the NDP diehards will return to ‎parliament in large numbers to sweep it. Al-Ahram political ‎analyst Gamal Abdel-Gawad agrees that ideological divisions ‎among secular opposition political forces offer a golden ‎opportunity for NDP diehards to return to parliament again.

‎‎”But I still have doubts that most of these diehards can win ‎because they lost popularity after Mubarak’s downfall, not to ‎mention that citizens cannot tolerate Egypt having another ‎Mubarak-style parliament in the wake of two revolutions,” ‎said Abdel-Gawad.‎

Shukr also agrees that “to say that NDP diehards will sweep ‎the coming parliament is overestimated.” “I know they are ‎coming from all directions as they want to impose a siege on ‎the coming parliament, but in any way I think that they, helped ‎by the electoral system, could at best win a quarter of seats – a ‎distressing fact in itself, ” said Shukr.‎

The results of the 2012 elections which were swept by the Muslim ‎Brotherhood’s political party show that four or five former NDP MPs only were ‎able to find their way into parliament as independents and ‎that most of NDP’s high profile candidates like El-Moselhi ‎lost the election to Islamist candidates. Shukr urges ‎opposition parties to merge into one electoral coalition ‎capable of winning majority and defeating the symbols of both ‎the Mubarak and Muslim Brotherhood regimes.

“I hope we will ‎move in this direction and the sooner the better if we want a ‎democratic future for Egypt to flourish,” said Shukr.‎

Egypt’s parliamentary polls are expected to be held later this ‎year or early next year after a new electoral district law is ‎finalised.‎

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What is really going on in Libya? 

AhramOnline 

۲۶ oktober

Ever since the fall of the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has been living in a state of ‘multiple sovereignty’ which will not end without casualties
Ziad Akl , Sunday 26 Oct 2014
The situation in Libya is a complicated and confusing one. It is complicated due to the unique nature of the “state” in Libya, and it is confusing because the map of political powers in Libya is highly unstable and political power-dynamics are constantly revised.

But regardless of the complex details that eventually make up the present picture, the growth of Libya as a regional and an international threat is becoming hard to ignore. Both Libya’s neighbours and the international community have shown increasing interest in what is going on in Libya, especially since the election of the new parliament and the beginning of a dual-state situation there.

However, the growing regional and international interest in Libya will not change the inevitable course of events Libya has to pass through in its post-revolutionary phase. Libyans today are paying the price of Gaddafi’s 42-year monopoly on power and the recurrent failure of the various post-revolutionary governments to assume legitimate political sovereignty.

After the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya had to face the absence of a “state” in the institutional sense of the word, and the state of political vacuum caused by Gaddafi’s totalitarian regime.

The National Transitional Council which assumed power after the fall of Gaddafi could not emerge as a sovereign political entity. Although the council enjoyed tangible domestic support and popularity as well as considerable international recognition, it was never sufficiently powerful or resourceful to face the several challenges in the post-Gaddafi Libya.

The absence of an institutional state and the relative weakness of Libyan political elites gave birth to new power centres, mainly non-institutional and illegitimate entities. Whether on religious, tribal, ideological or geographical basis, various militias emerged as influential political actors in Libya.

Neither the National Transitional Council nor the governments that followed were able to confront the militias or to declare monopoly over violence and means of coercion. Therefore, Libya remained until today in a state of “multiple sovereignty”. And in order to avoid violent confrontation between the different political actors, an underground dynamic was created between the legitimate political entities and the various militias; a dynamic that ensured mutual interests and peaceful coexistence between the legitimate political authority and the different illegitimate entities. It was this “dynamic” that put state-owned structures like airports and oil refineries under the control of militias without much objection from the government.

However, like other Arab Spring countries, the political clash between Islamists and nationalists in Libya was inevitable. But due to the nature of the “state” in Libya, specifically when it comes to the state’s coercive capabilities, this clash was much delayed. In other words, what we are witnessing in Libya right now is not the beginning of a civil war or a process of division, it is rather a struggle for survival between the different political entities that could not maintain the state of coexistence they had going since the fall of Gaddafi. Both regional and international interests require the presence of a sovereign authority in Libya, a single government that enjoys political legitimacy and coercive capabilities.

The nationalist front in Libya is indeed doing its best to emerge as this single authority, and the first step to establish that was making the connection between a politically legitimate entity (the Tobroq Parliament and its government) and a military capable body (the Haftar militias and the resurrected Libyan National Army). Unfortunately, ending the state of multiple sovereignty will not be realized without paying a price, sadly one that will be paid in bullets and blood.

Libya could be on its way to end the state of political chaos it has been living under since the fall of the Gaddafi regime, but it will only be wishful thinking to assume that this state will end without violent confrontations and casualties between warring entities.

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Gaurdian

30 Oktober

Tunisia election results: Nida Tunis wins most seats, sidelining Islamists

Secularists rule out unity government with Ennahda party after winning 85 seats and the right to form government

Tunisian officials present the country's final election results.
Tunisian officials present the country’s final election results. Photograph: Mohamed Messara/EPA

A liberal party with ties to the deposed regime has taken the most seats in Tunisia’s parliamentary elections, leaving the once-dominant Islamists running a close second, the country’s election commission has announced after the completion of final counting.

The Nida Tunis (Tunis Calls) party, running on an explicitly anti-Islamist platform, won 85 of the 217 seats in parliament, giving it the right to name a prime minister and lead a coalition government.

The Ennahda party, which had previously dominated the parliament on a platform of moderate Islamism, won 69 seats.

Since overthrowing its dictator in 2011 and kicking off the Arab Spring pro-democracy wave Tunisia has been buffeted by economic turmoil and terrorist attacks.

Analysts described Sunday’s election as a referendum on the Islamist-led coalition’s stormy two years in office and punishment for a poor economic performance and unfulfilled expectations of the revolution.

Nida Tunis is led by Beji Caid Essebsi, an 87-year-old veteran politician who previously served as foreign minister in the 1980s and parliament speaker in the early 1990s under later deposed President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

The party, which includes businessmen, trade unionists and politicians from the old regime, has all but ruled out forming a coalition with the Islamists, describing it as “against their nature”, and will turn to a collection of smaller parties to garner the necessary 109-seat majority.

Running a distant third was the Free Patriotic Union of Slim Rihai, a millionaire football club owner and political neophyte, with 16 seats.

In fourth place came the leftwing coalition of parties known as the Popular Front, which had two of its members assassinated by extremists in 2013.

The liberal Afek Tounes came in fifth place with eight seats. The remaining 24 seats were split among another dozen small parties.

Election Commission head Chafik Sarsar said Nida Tunis lost one seat in the southern city of Kasserine following reports of widespread election violations by its partisans in that city.

Tunisia’s transition to democracy has remained broadly on track while Libya and Syria have descended into civil war and Egypt’s military overthrew the elected post-revolution president.

Despite three years of political wrangling, economic turmoil and a rising number of terrorist attacks, Tunisian politicians from different parties managed to work together to pass a new constitution and hold elections for a permanent government.

Presidential elections featuring dozens of candidates are set for 23 November.

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