سقوط بازهم بیشتر روبل روسیه پس از اجلاس اوپک

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 چکیده: … بانک مرکزی روسیه، پس از اینکه نتوانست ارزش روبل را با ترزیق ۷۰$ بلیون دلار تثبیت کند گذاشت تا روبل بحال شناور** درآید. مع الوصف این بانک آماده است تا  در صورت بخطر افتادن ثبات مالی با دخالتهای دفعی خود، مانع تزلزل های مالی خطرناک  گردد.

 افزوده : تا بعد از ظهر جمعه سقوط روبل ادامه یافت و به ۵۰ روبل در مقابل ۱ دلار رسید*

مسکو تایمز:

پس از اجلاس بی نتیجه اوپک در کاهش تولید تا بهای نفت را تقویت کند روبل روسیه در شیبی تند دوچار سقوط گردید.

در ساعت ۸ بعداز ظهر،  روبل با ۲٫۶% سقوط  در برابر دلار به ۴۸٫۶ روبل در برابر دلار* رسید. این سقوط  و در برابر یورو ۲٫۵%  میباشد.

نفت برنت با ۶ دلار کاهش به ۷۱$ برای هر بشکه رسید. درآمد نفتی، قریب ۲/۳  هزینه بودجه دولت روسیه را تأمین میکند. معامله گران نفت میگویند که بعلت کوچک بودن معاملات و حجم  تقاضاها  در بازار، اوضاع وخیمتر  گردید زیرا دیگر یک معامله خُرد هم در بازار نوسان آفرین شده بود.

 بانک مرکزی روسیه، پس از اینکه نتوانست ارزش روبل را با ترزیق ۷۰$ بلیون دلار تثبیت کند گذاشت تا روبل در بحال شناور** درآید. مع الوصف این بانک آماده است تا  در صورت بخطر افتادن ثبات مالی با دخالتهای دفعی خود، مانع تزلزل های مالی خطرناک  گردد.
* تا پیش از اعمال تحریمها بخاطر دخالت روسیه در اوکرائین، هر دلار معادل ۳۳ روبل بود.

** شناور کردن روبل در این شرایط تنها جلیقه نجاتی(هر چند موقت) است که بانک مرکزی روسیه در اختیار دارد ولی سفته بازی ارزی روی دلار نظام پولی کشور را درهم میشکند. این عمل دفاعی، راهی است که بانک مرکزی ما هم باید در پیش گیرد قبل از اینکه کلان سفته بازان  ارزی ته مانده ذخیره ارزی کشور را بچابند. من این مسئله  را مفصلتر در یاداشت قبلی خود با عنوان” رابطه دلار و ریال و توصیه ایی به مقامات مسئول پولی ” توضیح داده ام.

کامنت من:

به نوشته مسکو تایمز، وزیر خارجه ونزئلا اعلام کرد: ” ایالات متحده به شیوه بسیار بسیار غلطی نفت تولید میکند. نفت از سنگنفت موجب تغیرات زیست محیطی  فاجعه بار میگردد.”  توضیح اینکه خطرات این شیوه تولید نفت بیش از آنکه آثار جوی مخرب داشته باشد آثار فاجعه بار مالی برای نظام سوسیلیستی نفت بنیاد خودآن کشور دارد که با نفت کمتر از بشکه ای ۱۱۸$ نمیتواند بودجه خود را بالانس کند:

Oil price graphic

“The U.S. is producing in a very, very bad manner. Shale oil, I mean it is a disaster from the point of view of climate change and the environment,” said Foreign Minister Ramirez, who represents Venezuela at OPEC.

Russia’s Ruble Crashes to Historic Lows as OPEC Lets Oil Price Fall

  • The Moscow Times
  • Nov. 28 2014 10:25
  • Last edited 11:55
Heinz-Peter Bader / ReutersOPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri arrives for a news conference after a meeting of OPEC oil ministers at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna on Nov. 27, 2014.

The ruble dropped sharply on Friday morning, falling to within 10 kopeks of the 50 to the U.S. dollar mark after OPEC’s refusal to implement production cuts caused oil prices to nosedive.

The Russian currency reached 49.9 to the dollar shortly after 10 a.m., extending a dramatic week-long slide that raises the possibility of intervention by the Central Bank to steady the market.

The ruble, which is at record lows, has lost over 10 percent against the dollar since Monday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday it would not curb output to shore up prices, prompting oil to drop below $72 a barrel, shedding over $5 in a day to trade at four-year-lows.

The price of the international benchmark brent crude Friday morning was about $71.70, having plummeted from a high of $115 this summer.

Russia depends for about half its budget revenues on energy exports, so the falling price of crude has an immediate knock-on effect on the Russian currency and the stock prices of Russian companies.

The ruble has already lost over 30 percent of its value against the dollar this year in the face of weakening oil and Western sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine crisis.

The Central Bank implemented a free floating currency earlier this month after spending over $70 billion to defend the ruble since January, but has said that it reserves to right to intervene on the market if there is a threat to financial stability.

“The key is the mindset of the Central Bank, and what would be required for it to intervene. Collapsing oil prices justify the ruble’s weakness. However, it is the pace of ruble’s declines and the public’s behavior that we think will govern its decision,” chief currency strategist at Sberbank CIB Tom Levinson said in a note Friday.

The dollar-denominated RTS index, which is particularly badly hit by ruble weakness, sank to five-year lows of 969 points Friday. The ruble-traded MICEX index was flat at 1,532 points.

 

 

 

 

 

Russia’s Ruble Tumbles After OPEC Refuses to Cut Oil Output

  • Kacper Pempel / ReutersA reflection of a yearly chart of U.S. dollars and Russian rubles are seen on ruble notes
  • Reuters
  • Nov. 27 2014 16:01
  • Last edited 21:16

Russia’s ruble fell to record lows against the dollar and euro on Thursday after OPEC decided against cutting crude-oil output to boost flagging prices.

At 8 p.m. the ruble was down around 2.6 percent against the dollar at 48.6 rubles per dollar and around 2.5 percent weaker against the euro at 60.7 rubles per euro.

It had earlier strengthened against both currencies in nervous trade before the OPEC meeting in Vienna, one of the most closely watched in years.

“The ruble basket is in free fall again, reflecting the lack of agreement from OPEC over oil production cuts. I would assume that the central bank will need to come in very soon,” Timothy Ash, an emerging markets analyst for Standard Bank, said in a note.

Brent crude fell more than $6 to around $71 a barrel after the OPEC meeting, in turn weighing on the ruble. Oil and gas account for around two-thirds of Russian exports, making the ruble and other Russian assets sensitive to changes in the oil price.

Traders said market moves were exacerbated by thin volumes, which mean that even small purchases of foreign currency could move the market.

Russia’s Central Bank let the ruble float earlier this month after spending over $70 billion defending the currency this year. The bank has warned, however, that it could still carry out large, ad hoc interventions to defend the ruble if threats to financial stability emerge.

As of Thursday, the ruble was down over 30 percent against the dollar this year.

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