شکست “بیداری اسلامی”و پیروزی لیبرال دموکراسی درتونس

Share Button

سیر تحولات تونس غنی تر و درس آموز تر از آنست که بتوان آنرا در یک چنین یادداشت کوتاهی گنجاند ولی صادقانه بگویم فکر نمیکنم درما روشنفکران و سیاستورزان کرخت شده  ایرانی  که به مضامین نوشتارهای ژورنالیستی تکراری و ارضاء کننده که بیان کم و کاستیها در سطحی ترین شکلشان یا  در واقع عکسبرداری آن کاستیها و رویدادها ی روز میباشند عادت کرده ائیم،  انرژی و انگیزه ایی برای رفتن به عمق چنین رویدادهایی باشند که در ظاهر رخدادهایی عادی هستند و لی در باطن نه. 

بهار عرب بهاری تر میشود

بیجی قائد اِسبسی؛ سیاتمدار ۸۸ ساله تونس، از یاران حبیب بورقیبه  رهبر جنبش استقلال  و سکولاریسم مدرن* تونس امروز دو شنبه، خود را برنده انتخابات ریاست جمهوری دیروز تونس اعلام کرد. او در دور اول انتخابات ریاست جمهوری، آرایی در حدود به۶٫۵ %  بیش از رقیب خود اصلی خود، منصف مرزوقی، رئیس جمهور پس از انقلاب ۴ سال پیش علیه ضد زین العابدین بن علی،   کسب کرد. ولی کسب آرای مطلق وبرنده شدن در همان دور اول باز ماند.

انتخابات ریاست جمهوری تونس،  هم درسها و هم شگفتیهای زیادی دارد که من در یاداشت بعدی خود آنها را توضیح خواهم داد. ولی مهمترین آنها اجماع شگفت انگیز چپ ضد امپریالیستی، بنیاد گرایی سلفیستی و اخوان المسلمینی در جبهه ایی واحد پشت سر مرزوقی فعال قدیمی حقوق بشری با تفکر استقلال طلبانه، و مواضع ضد لیبرالی غربی از نوع جلال آل احمد در ایران  است.

شکست مرزوقی تنها شکست که سیاستمدار تونسی که نماینده یا رهبر یک حزب و جریان باشد نبود، بلکه شکست تاریخی و دیسکورسیو چند گفتمان هم عرض  و تاریخ گذشته بود که بیشک پس لرزه های زیادی در تمام جهان عرب و اسلام،  منطقه خاور میانه و شمال آفریقا خواهد داشت.  پیروزی  قائدالسبسی در تونس، شکست گفتمان اسلام سیاسی، شکست گفتمان جانسخت غرب ستیزی و اندیشه های وهم آلود روشنفکری ناسیونالیسم جهان سومی بود.

پیروزی السبسی در حقیقت، هم ادامه قیام  پیروزمند۴ سال پیش مردم تونس علیه دیکتاوری فردی بود و هم در جهت به ریل اندازی آن انقلاب در یک مسیر متعادل سیاسی و اجتماعی . السبسی در حقیقت  برآیند و برآمد نماد دستآوردهای مثبت گذشته و نفی کاستی های آن گذشته است. السبسی نه محصول ویرانگیری شوری و انقلاب تونس و نه میراث دار دیکتاتوری گذشته است. او حاصل آشتی ساهته های گذشته و آرمان های طبقه متوسط و اقشار مدرن جامعه تونس است. او همان جهتیگیری را دارد که السیسی در مصر و با همان خاستگاه تاریخی و اجتماعی و هردو پیشقراول مدرنیزاسیون و تجدد طلبی این منطقه از جهان بزرگ ما هستند.

اگر تصور کنیم که چپ سنتی و اسلامیسم النهضت (اخوانی) به این آسانی خود را با سازو کار های دموکراسی پارلمانی همساز خواهند کرد قدری خوشبینی بخرج داده ائیم. تن دادن النهدا به انتخاباتی سالم و نهایتاً مشارکتی دموکراتیک، نه ناشی از ” عابد شدن گربه” ای که شایسته مژدگانی است، بلکه ناشی از انقلابی است که در مصر با حمایت نظامیان آن کشور به رهبری ژنرال  السیسی رخ داد و در حکم ناقوس مرگ اسلام سیاسی نه تنها در منطقه بلکه در جهان است هرچند ممکنست روند آن چندی بطول انجامد و هزینه های بیشتری را بدنیا تحمیل کند.

انقلاب دوم مصر علیه مرسی در حقیقت سر آغاز فصل جدیدی در تاریخ خاورمیانه و اگر اغراق تلقی نشود در جهان اسلام و ممالک عربی با اعمال نسبی قهری بود که میرود تا ریشه کهنه پرستی را در مصر برکند و به الگویی برای منطقه تبدیل گردد. انقلاب مصر با سرکوب اسلامیسم سلفیستی و اخوان المسلمین و تروریست خواندن حماس، مشت آهنین طبقه متوسط و اقشار مدرن جامعه مصر بود که شانس حضور مخرب اسلامگرایان در صحنه سیاسی مصر را با فرصتی که از عملیات خشونت گرایانه و تروریستی خود آنان گرفته بود، برای همیشه از آنان گرفت. انقلاب مصر عمیقترین و رادیکال ترین انقلاب با مضمون عمیق اجتماعی و فرهنگی و طبقاتی  در دوران و در منطقه ماست. حال آنکه النهضت یا النهدا با درس آموزی از سرکوب اخوان المسلمین در مصر و قرار گرفتن پشت سر یک رئیس جمهور بظاهر غیر اسلامی ولی با فصل مشترک غرب ستیزانه،  با نگاه ناسیونالیسمی جهان سومی از طراز جلال آل احمد ما،،  توانست حضور خود را در صحنه سیاسی تونس حفظ کند.

انقلاب مصر مشت آهنین اقشار مدرن و طبقه متوسط در منطقه و نه تنها در مصر بر فرق همه اشکال پس مانده دولتمداری و سیاستگرایی بود در حالیکه پیروزی السبسی زبان ملایم و قانون گرایانه همان طبقات و اقشار و گرایش و آرامان تاریخی  آنان است. آن یک با قهر نسبی و برخوردار از حمایت دموکراتیک مردم ناپلئون وار علیه کهنه گرایی و دین ابزاری برخاست و این یک با ابزار انتخاباتی. انقلاب پیروز مند مصر و قهر آمیز پیروز شده مصر نیاز به کاربست و تطبیق بیش از پیش خود با  ظواهردموکراسی نوع غربی دارد و پیروزی کسب شده از صندوقهای انتخاباتی در تونس نیاز به کار برد و استفاده از بازویی آهنین دارد  تا دستآورد های انتخاباتی را از گزند آشوب آفرینی اسلامیستها و چپهایی که از هر کاستی اجتمعی اقتصادی برای بی ثبات کردن اوضاع استفاده میکنند.

النضهت قول داده است که در کنار برنده انتخاباتی  به فعالیت و مشارکت سازنده سیاسی بپردازد و باید امید داشت که رشید قانوشی  و دیگر اسلامگرایان النهضتی آنقدر درس گرفته باشند تا خود را با سازوکار های پارلمانی و دموکراسی مدرن تطبیق دهند.

متأسفانه وقت بیشتری برای تحلیل بیشتر نیست فقط باید بگویم هنوز نتیجه نهایی  انتخابات اعلام نشده است ولی بر طبق  مؤسسه آمار گیری سیگما بترتیب السبسی ۵۵٫۵ ومنصف  مرزوقی ۴۴٫۵  رأی کسب خواهند کرد.  مرزوقی امروز صبح اعلام کرد که نتیجه هنوز نامعلوم است. ولی با توجه به تفاوت ۱۰%ی  دونامزد بنفع قائد السبسی  چنین بنظر میرسد که برنده شدن  او  قطعی میباشد و گزارشهای خبری منطقه و دنیا هم بر این امر دلالت دارند هرچند بر حسب رعایت موازین انتخاباتی محناطانه اظهار نظر میکنند.

سیر تحولات تونس غنی تر و درس آموز تر از آنست که بتوان آنرا در یک چنین یادداشت کوتاهی گنجاند ولی صادقانه بگویم فکر نمیکنم درما روشنفکران و سیاستورزان کرخت شده  ایرانی  که به مضامین نوشتارهای ژورنالیستی تکراری و ارضاء کننده که بیان کم و کاستیها در سطحی ترین شکلشان یا  در واقع عکسبرداری آن کاستیها و رویدادها ی روز میباشند عادت کرده ائیم،  انرژی و انگیزه ایی برای رفتن به عمق چنین رویدادهایی باشند که در ظاهر رخدادهایی عادی هستند و لی در باطن نه.

*************************************

New president for ‘country of the year’ makes history

Beji Caid Essebsi, right, is Tunisia's new president-elect. In this 2011 photo, he shakes hands with diplomat William Swing.
Beji Caid Essebsi, right, is Tunisia’s new president-elect. In this 2011 photo, he shakes hands with diplomat William Swing.
By Josh LevsCNN
December 22, 2014 — Updated 1600 GMT (0000 HKT)

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Tunisia’s historic elections are the sole point of hope for Arab democracy, analysts say
  • The Economist names Tunisia “country of the year”
  • Long-time politician Beji Caid Essebsi beats outgoing President Moncef Marzouki
  • Clashes erupt, tear gas is fired

(CNN) — It’s widely considered the only place in which seeds planted during the “Arab Spring” may have grown into the first sprouts of democracy. And now, Tunisia officially has a new president-elect.

Long-time politician Beji Caid Essebsi won the country’s runoff with about 55% of the vote, beating outgoing President Moncef Marzouki’s 44%, state-run media reported Monday.

It was a hard-fought race. On Sunday, despite earlier indications Essebsi had won, supporters of Marzouki rallied in downtown Tunis.

Security forces responded to rock-throwing rioters by firing tear gas to quickly disperse the crowds, state-run media reported.

Outgoing Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki
Outgoing Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki

As a candidate, Essebsi promised to restore the state’s prestige after the chaotic years since the 2011 revolution, when the country’s dictator, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, was ousted. But Marzouki warned that Essebsi would bring back authoritarian policies.

Inside Ben Ali’s palace: Fake diplomas, sports cars, stuffed leopard

Fareed’s Take: Arab states & democracy

Tunisia’s secularists face many challenges

Tunisian lawmaker calls for unity

The fact that the elections — considered legitimate — took place at all is historic.

The election process began in October with a vote for parliament. “At a time when hopes of moving towards political reform and accountable governments elsewhere in the Arab world have been dashed, Tunisia is the only country where the aspirations of the Arab uprisings may yet be fulfilled in the near future,” Anthony Dworkin of the European Council on Foreign Relations wrote at the time.

On Saturday, The Economist declared Tunisia its “country of the year.”

“The idealism engendered by the Arab spring has mostly sunk in bloodshed and extremism, with a shining exception: Tunisia,” the magazine wrote. “… Its economy is struggling and its polity is fragile; but Tunisia’s pragmatism and moderation have nurtured hope in a wretched region and a troubled world. Mabrouk, Tunisia!” (“Mabrouk” is a way of saying “congratulations” in Arabic.)

Fast Facts: Tunisia

The revolutions that spread throughout the Arab world began in Tunisia when a poor 26-year-old who could not find a job had a run-in with police and then set himself on fire in front of a government building in December 2010.

*******************************

Essebsi

A supporter of the Nidaa Tounes (Call of Tunisia) secular party movement holds an image of Tunisian presidential candidate Beji Caid Essebsi outside Nidaa Tounes in Tunis December 21, 2014. (Photo:Reuters)
22 december

Tunisian polling firms have declared Beji Caid Essebsi, an 88-year-old official from previous regimes, as the winner of Sunday’s presidential runoff, cementing his dominance over a country where his party already controls Parliament.

The runoff election marks the culmination of a 4-year-long rocky transition to democracy after Tunisians overthrew dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, kicking off pro-democracy uprisings around the region in what became known as the Arab Spring.

Only in Tunisia, however, has the transition to democracy remained on track, with elections for a permanent parliament held in October and the first round of presidential elections a month later.

The Sigma Conseil company’s exit polls, which have consistently come close to matching official results released later, gave Essebsi 55.5 percent of the vote and his opponent Moncef Marzouki, the outgoing interim president, 44.5 percent. Other polling companies gave between 52 and 54 percent to Essebsi.

Marzouki’s campaign maintained that Sunday’s election was too close to call, and the official results are expected by Monday night. Marzouki congratulated Tunisia for its election and said the country has “banished the fake elections of the past which were won by percentages of 99.99 percent.”

Celebrations began immediately after polls closed at Essebsi’s party headquarters with fireworks, cheering crowds and lines of cars honking their horns. Essebsi struck a conciliatory note, urging Marzouki’s supporters to work with him to rebuild the country.

“The future begins today!” Essebsi said, saluting Marzouki and the people who voted for him. “What is important is what we do today and tomorrow for Tunisia and all its children. We must work hand in hand.”

The election has shown deep divisions in the country, not just between Islamists and more secular groups but also between the wealthier capital and coastal regions and the more impoverished interior, which voted for Marzouki.

While the moderate Islamist party Ennahda dominated politics immediately after the revolution in 2011, they were unable to address the serious economic and political challenges in the country, including terrorist attacks.

The Islamists came in second in October’s parliamentary election and did not field a presidential candidate, though they tended support Marzouki.

Essebsi created Nida Tunis (Tunisia’s Call), a collection of former regime officials, businessmen and trade unionists to oppose the Islamists and to restore the “prestige of state,” which he said had suffered in the wake of the revolution.

There are now fears that Nida Tunis’ control over the presidency, prime minister and Parliament could result in a return to the country’s old authoritarian ways — an argument Marzouki attempted to push during his campaign.

In the end, however, Tunisians appear to have desired a return to stability and normalcy after the years of revolutionary turmoil.

“Essebsi, thanks to his political experience and international ties as well as his program, can get the country out of this mess,” said Mehrez Rakkez, a lawyer who voted in the lower income neighborhood of Kram. He described Marzouki’s three years as interim president as a disaster and said the vote was a choice between “life and death.”

In nearly all the countries swept by pro-democracy uprisings since the Arab Spring, there has been a degree of backlash since the first heady days, including government crackdowns and Egypt’s military overthrow of an elected president.

In Tunisia, however, the backlash has remained within the legal framework of the transition.

In contrast to the almost 70 percent turnout for the first round of the presidential election and the legislative balloting, the official election authority said only 59 percent of Tunisia’s 5.3 million voters cast ballots on Sunday.

“This election doesn’t interest me,” said a young man sitting in a crowded cafe in front of a polling station in Tunis’ lower income neighborhood of Yasmina. “I voted before, but I feel the candidates lie. They promise to create jobs for the youth and improve living conditions, but they don’t keep them.”

The eve of the election was marked by some violence with a shotgun blast wounding a soldier near the city of Kairouan. The attackers returned early Sunday morning and attempted to target another polling station but were caught by the army which killed one and arrested three.

No other major acts of violence were reported by the time polls closed at 6 p.m.

According to authorities, around 100,000 police and soldiers secured the polls.

Essebsi declares win in Tunisia election, rival contests

BY PATRICK MARKEY AND TAREK AMARA

TUNIS Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:35am EST

Tunisia's President Moncef Marzouki, who is seeking re-election, casts his vote at a polling station in Sousse December 21, 2014. REUTERS-Zoubeir Souissi

1 OF 11. Beji Caid Essebsi (C), Nidaa Tounes party leader, gestures outside the party headquarters in Tunis December 21, 2014.

CREDIT: REUTERS/ZOUBEIR SOUISSI

(Reuters) – Veteran politician Beji Caid Essebsi declared victory in Sunday’s presidential run-off vote, seen as the last step in Tunisia’s shift to full democracy four years after an uprising ousted autocrat Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali.

Official results are not due until Monday and his rival, the incumbent president, Moncef Marzouki, refused to concede defeat.

But soon after polls closed, Essebsi, an 88-year-old former parliament speaker under Ben Ali, announced that he had won by a clear margin and jubilant supporters took to the streets of the capital in celebration, chanting “Beji President!”

Victory for Essebsi would enable him to consolidate power, with his new secular party, Nidaa Tounes (Call for Tunisia) already controlling parliament after defeating the main Islamist party in legislative elections in October.

With a new progressive constitution and a string of votes successfully completed, Tunisia is hailed as an example of democratic change in a region that is struggling to cope with the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring revolts.

“I dedicate my victory to the martyrs of Tunisia. I thank Marzouki, and now we should work together without excluding anyone,” Essebsi told local television.

However his rival Marzouki, a 69-year-old former rights activist, rejected the victory claim and suggested that he would emerge the winner when the official results were released.

“Tunisia has won today, democracy has won, we need to stay united. Despite the claims of our adversary, all indications are positive for us, we look ahead,” he told cheering supporters from the balcony of his Tunis campaign headquarters.

Police fired tear gas to disperse a few hundred protesters in a southern city who took to the streets to denounce Essebsi’s victory speech, the state news agency TAP reported.

Although Tunisia has largely avoided the bitter post-revolt divisions that trouble Egypt and neighboring Libya, tensions nevertheless flared between Islamists and secularists after the 2011 rebellion in one of the Arab world’s most secular nations.

Islamist militants who emerged in the wake of the uprising remain a risk. One gunman was killed overnight and three arrested after they opened fire on a polling station in the central Kairouan governorate.

RETURN OF THE “REMNANTS”

Accepting former regime officials — known as the “Remnants” by their critics — back into politics was one of the steps that initially helped restore calm and keep Tunisia’s often unsteady transition to democracy on track.

Essebsi took 39 percent of votes in the first round ballot in November with Marzouki winning 33 percent.

As front runner, Essebsi dismissed critics who said victory for him would mark a return of the old regime stalwarts. He argued that he was the technocrat Tunisia needed following three messy years of an Islamist-led coalition government.

Marzouki, who had sought refuge in France during the Ben Ali era, painted an Essebsi presidency as a setback for the “Jasmine Revolution” that forced the former leader to flee into exile.

However, many Tunisians tie Marzouki’s own presidency to the previous government led by the Islamist party and the mistakes opponents said it made in being too lenient with hardline Islamists in one of the Arab world’s most secular countries.

Still, compromise has been important in Tunisian politics and Essebsi’s party reached a deal with the Islamist Ennahda (Renaissance) party to overcome a crisis triggered by the murder of two secular leaders last year.

Ennahda stepped down at the start of this year to make way for a technocrat transitional cabinet until elections. But the Islamists remain a powerful force after winning the second largest number of seats in the new parliament.

Essebsi appealed to the more secular, liberal sections of Tunisian society, while analysts predicted that Marzouki would draw on support from more conservative rural areas.

The presidency post holds only limited powers over national defense and foreign policy.

(Reporting by Tarek Amara; writing by Patrick Markey; editing by Andrew Hay, Jason Neely and Crispian Balmer)

No Comments