چه میخواستند و چی شد!؟

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در زیر کپی دو گزارش، یکی از روئیترز و دیگری CNBC  را درج کرده ام. گزارش روئیترز را اگر بجای ترجمه درستش، معادل ضرب المثلی فارسی خودمان را بگذاریم میشود همان “چی میخواستیم و چی شد!؟” معروف است. روئیترز نمونه های زیادی از احساس جشن و شادمانی روسها را از برنده شدن دونالد ترامپ در انتخابات سال گذشته آمریکا ذکر کرده است و اینکه روسها این پیروزی را پیروزی خود تلقی میکردند و یاداوری میکند که خنده دارترین  نمونه از این احساس شادمانی ملی روسی، جام  شامپانی  بالا زدن  ولادیمیر ژیرونوفسکی، رهبر حزب ماوراء راست و شونیست لیبرال دموکرات روسیه است.

حالا معلوم شده است که خبری از کباب نبود و فقط خر داغ میکردند. روئیترز مینویسد که تمام روسیه با اعلام پیروزی دونالد ترامپ به یک شور و خوش بینی سرمستانه دچار شده بود. متأسفانه نتوانستم عکس ژیرونوفسکی را در حال بالا انداختن کیلاس شامپانش کپی کنم ولی به کاربران سایت توصیه میکنم با کلیک روی لینک روئیترز آنرا و ویدئو ی آبتنی کردن نمایشی/مذهبی پوتین را هم ببینید.

در ادامه؛ روئیترز از جایگزینی آن احساس سرمستی شادمانه با  یأسی که سیاست های ضد روسی ترامپ در فضای سیاسی روسیه ایجاد شده است مینویسد و نمونه هایی را از قول سیاستمداران و صاحبنظران سیاسی روسیه ذکر میکند که چگونه همه شادمانی کنندگان به غلط کردن افتاده اند و چگونه بسیاری از آنها علناً میگویند روابط روسیه با آمریکا در زمان اوباما بهتر بود زیر حداقل یک نیمچه تماسیهایی بین رهبران دو کشور وجود داشت درحالیکه در حال حاضر تماسی جدی وجود ندارد.

 بسیاری میگویند بسیار بهتر میبود اگر هیلاری کلینتون برنده میشد.

آن به سرمستی افتادن و این به …. خوردن افتادن، چیز نیست جز روی دیگر سکه ی یک دیکتاتوری فاسد و پوپولیست که سطح شعور سیاسی و تفکر و تعقل جمعی هیئت حاکمه اش تا سطح همان پوپولیسم پوتین تنزل یافته است.

تنها در این قضیه نیست که روسیه تپق زده است. در جریان سرکوب و پسا سرکوب قیام مردم سوریه روسیه با همراهی ایران و دیگر سیاستمدار پوپولیست؛ رجب طیب اردوغان، بارها در شهر”آستانه” کنفرانس صلح تشکیل دادند و هیاهو کردند که همه معارضین(ترجمه روسی ایرانی اپوزیسیون) سوری در آن کنفرانسها شرکت میکنند و هدف همه این نمایشات به محاق راندن کنفرانس ژنو تحت سرپرستی سازمان ملل و نقش آفرینی برای روسیه و پوتین بود ولی هر بار اپوزیسیون سوریه با مشت زدن به دهان آنها سکه کنفرانس آستانه را از اعتبار انداخت.

این سیاست روسیه در برابر مسئله سوریه مانند شرکای دیگرش ایران و ترکیه، بیانگر عدم درک عمقی و جامعه شناختی سیاسی آنها از وضعیت بوجود آمده در سوریه است. این پریشان خیالی ناشی از اینست که این رژیمهای دیکتاتوری فکر میکنند همانطور که خود در شرایط سیطره کامل امنیتی درمملکت تحت فرمانروائی اشان، اعتراضات مردمی را باصطلاح”جمع” میکنند،   مشکل سوریه هم بهمان سادگی جمع کردنی است.

در یک کلام سطح شعور سیاسی در این دیکتاتوری ها تا سطح شعور امنیتی و پلیسی نظامشان تقلبل یافته است و این یک نقطه مهم آسیب شناختی در بدنه و ساختار قدرت سیاسی در این ممالک است.

و اما موضوع گزارش دوم، CNBC  که مشابه آن، این ایام سرتیتر صفحات اکثر نشریات و دیگر رسانه ای دنیا شده است، مسئله نفت و پیش افتادن قریب باتفاق ایالات متحده از روسیه و عربستان با رساندن تولید خود به بالای ۱۱ میلیون بشکه در روز است. تقریباً همه رسانه هائی که اینروزها مسئله سبقت گیری آمریکا را در تولید نفت در دنیا به بحث گذارده اند همگی تمرکز خود را روی نَفسِ این سبقت گیری و میزان کمی آن نهاده اند حال آنکه  از آن جنبه کمیتی مهمتر، معنای مهم این سبقت گیری یعنی مرجع شدن قیمت نفت “شل” در آمریکا و صدور تکنولوژی آن به دیگر ممالک است که به دوران نفت استخراجی با هزینه استخراج حدود ده تا پانزده دلار پایان داده و قیمت نفت تولیدی “شل” را با هزینه حدود حداکثر ۳۵ دلار به نرخ مرچع جهانی (benchmark) بجای نرخ نفت برنت، دوبی و غرب تکزاس تبدیل خواهد کرد.

آنها که نفت را با هزینه ایی زیر ۳۵ دلار تولید میکنند حد اکثرتفاوتِ بین هزینه تا سقف ۳۵ دلار را سود میبرند و آنها که بالای ۳۵ دلار تولید میکنند  چندان شانسی برای فروش نفت خود به بالای این قیمت در بازار جهانی نخواهند داشت مگر در آینده با شیب ملایم تورمی در جهان. ذخایر “شل” در مقایسه با ذخیر نفت مایع بسی بیشتر است و تعداد قریب ۷۵۰۰۰ چاه “شل”  در آمریکا، که در اثر سقوط بهای نفت، نیمه کاره رها شده بودند با قیمتهای بسیار ارزان از سوی غولهای نفتی خریده شده اند که در آینده سریعاً فعال خواهند شد و روی این اصل ثابت گرفتن همان میزان ۱۱ میلیون بشکه در آمریکا هم  برای مدتی طولانی واقعبینانه نیست و معلوم نیست میزان تولید آن کشور تا بکجا با هزینه تولید ۲۵ ـ ۳۵ دلار بالا خواهد رفت.

سخن کوتاه، اینکه؛ عبارت نفت یعنی “طلای سیاه” را باید بکنار نهاد و از تولید نفت مانند آهن و پولاد پارچه* سخن راند. معنای این نتیجه گیری اینست که عمر اقتصاد و دولتهای متکی بر اقتصاد نفتی با انقلاب “شل” به پایان رسیده است. و اگر می بینیم رهبران عربستان سعودی به فراصت افتاده، قصد زیر رو کردن ساختار اقتصادی کشورخود را دارند، اینرا باید بحساب درایت و دور اندیشی سیاسی آنها نهاد، حال چه در این راه موق شوند و چه در جریان این زیر و رو کردن گردونه اقتصادی، گرودنه حکومتی خود آنها نیز زیر و رو شود.

ضمناً باید در مظالعه نقش انقلاب “شل” به این نکته توجه داشت که بسیاری کشورهای دیگر از اردن و عربستان و انگلیس گرفته تا استرالیا و اوکرائین دارای ذخایر قابل بهره برداری نفت شل هستند ولی سرعت برق آسای توسعه فن آوری آن در آمریکا و تبدیل آن کشور از یک وارد کننده (حدود ۵ میلیون بشکه) به یک صادرکننده (۱٫۷ میلیون بشکه) هنوز مجال انتقال تکنولوژی آنرا به بقیه دنیا نداده است ولی این امر زمان زیادی طول نخواهد کشید.

اگر حوصله ایی و فرصتی باشد این بحث ادامه خواهد یافت.

 Reuters

JANUARY 19, 2018

In Russia, Trump inauguration euphoria leaves lasting hangover

MOSCOW (Reuters) – A year ago on Saturday, Russian nationalists partied in central Moscow to celebrate Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 45th president of the United States.

Euphoria has given way to dismay as the man they expected to end U.S. sanctions against Russia reluctantly reinforced the penalties and allegations of Russian interference in the U.S. election, denied by Moscow, eroded political ties

Some Russians even say it might have been better if Hillary Clinton, long portrayed here as rabidly anti-Russian, had won the presidency.

“Under a Clinton administration … we could have maintained some kind of contacts and dialogue, at least in the arms control sphere. Now, that’s all gone,” said Valery Garbuzov, director of the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies in Moscow, which advises the government on foreign policy.

Before he was elected, Trump’s talk of wanting better relations with Moscow and praise for President Vladimir Putin delighted Russian officials, who had watched ties with the administration of Barack Obama sink to a post-Cold War low.

News of Trump’s White House win was greeted by applause in the Russian lower house of parliament and the head of the Kremlin-backed RT TV channel, Margarita Simonyan, said she felt like driving around Moscow with a U.S. flag.

Simonyan now spends much of her time assailing the U.S. authorities, accusing them of shutting down free speech there by designating her channel as “a foreign agent.”

Tsargrad, the nationalist TV channel that broadcast the main Russian Trump inauguration party at Moscow’s Soviet-era post office, accused Trump this week of criticizing Russia over North Korea to distract from his own problems at home.

With the U.S. Congress continuing investigations into alleged collusion between Trump and Russia and the administration working on lawmakers’ demand for more punitive measures, the Kremlin’s frustration is palpable

While Putin met Trump twice last year, officials here say they are unaware of any plans for a bilateral summit and Moscow tried and failed to set up a formal meeting between Putin and Trump at an APEC summit in November.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov listed U.S.-Russia relations as among the biggest disappointments of 2017.

The U.S. Treasury Department is due to publish a report before the end of this month naming wealthy Russians close to Putin or the authorities, something Russian officials fear is a prelude to extending a list of sanctioned people and entities.

Russian officials say they expect at least another six U.S. government reports this year that may result in new U.S. action against Russia’s energy and financial sectors as well as media, and a possible ban on the purchase of Russian Treasury bonds.

“(U.S.) sanctions policy is designed to turn Russia into a toxic asset so that any investor will think 10 times before deciding to enter the Russian market,” said Ivan Timofeev, a sanctions expert at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a think-tank close to the Russian Foreign Ministry

FILE PHOTO: Head of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) Vladimir Zhirinovsky celebrates Donald Trump’s election as president by drinking sparkling wine with other party members during a break in the session of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, in Moscow, Russia November 9, 2016. REUTERS/Maxim Zmeyev/File Photo

Russia’s scope to defend itself from new sanctions was “extremely limited,” he said

‘TOUGHER THAN OBAMA’

Putin has put a brave face on worsening U.S.-Russia relations, using his annual news conference in December to say he thought ties would eventually recover, while praising Trump for his economic achievements.

But though Russian officials say they believe Trump’s stated desire to improve ties with Moscow is sincere, they portray him as a lame duck president when it comes to making Russia policy, neutered by his domestic political opponents.

The result, they complain, is that U.S.-Russia ties are actually worse in some ways than under Obama and that high-level contacts are virtually non-existent

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their bilateral meeting at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany July 7, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

“Unfortunately the actions of the current administration are in line with Obama‘s, despite the line of president Trump during his election campaign. In certain areas, they are even more assertive,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his annual news conference this month.

Both Trump and Putin may say they want better ties, officials say, but day-to-day relations between the two countries are locked in a downward spiral with no Cold War-style communications channels to help tamp down tensions.

Russian efforts to persuade Trump to hand it back two diplomatic properties in the United States seized under the Obama administration have come to nothing, prompting Moscow to respond by seizing U.S. property in Russia. Putin last year ordered the U.S. Embassy in Russia to shed half its staff.

The Trump administration has also upped pressure on Russia over Ukraine, going further than Obama by authorizing the supply of new weapons to Kiev, which is locked in a war with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

It has also described Russia as a revisionist state seeking to challenge U.S. power.

Andrey Kortunov, head of RIAC, said Moscow had been blinded by its desire for “anyone but Clinton”, a view that the Republicans were easier to work with than the Democrats, and a belief that Trump’s world view overlapped with Russia‘s.

“We warned them,” he said.

Garbuzov, whose institute also advises the government, said the elite wrongly assumed the U.S. political system was like Russia’s where the president has few checks on his authority, and can now only try to limit the damage by cooperating where possible.

“Trump can’t do anything (to improve Russia ties),” said Garbuzov.

“He’s made vague statements saying it would be good to fix relations, but how to achieve this is an enigma for him.”

Editing by Philippa Fletcher

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CNBC

20/01/2018

‘Relentless’ growth could see the US topple Russia, Saudi Arabia as world’s largest oil producer, IEA says

  • “This year promises to be a record-setting one for the U.S.,” the IEA said in its closely-watched report published Friday
  • The latest monthly report from the IEA comes at a time when crude futures have climbed to highs not seen since the early days of a slump in December 2014
  • One of the main beneficiaries of OPEC-led production cuts is the producers’ major competitor, U.S. shale oil. U.S. oil producers are staging a dramatic comeback amid a recovering oil price that has allowed many of them to restart operations
  • The U.S. is well-placed to overtake the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s leading energy producer over the next 12 months, according to the latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    “This year promises to be a record-setting one for the U.S.,” the IEA said in its closely-watched report published Friday.

    “Relentless growth should see the U.S. hit historic highs above 10 million barrels a day (in production), overtaking Saudi Arabia and rivaling Russia during the course of 2018 — provided OPEC and non-OPEC restraints remain in place,” the Paris-based organization adde

    ‘Unchartered waters’

    The latest monthly report from the IEA comes at a time when crude futures have climbed to highs not seen since the early days of a slump in December 2014. Brent crude futures hit a peak of $70.37 a barrel on Monday, with the global benchmark since paring some of its recent gains to trade at $68.69 on Friday morning.

    “What we are trying to understand is the responsiveness of the U.S. shale producers. And because of the dynamism of the industry, the innovation and the vast number of players in that space … to some extent, we are in unchartered waters,” Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Friday.

    Atkinson said that given the recent rally in oil prices, the IEA was expecting a “wave of new production” from the U.S. in the coming months. He added OPEC would then need to “accommodate” for that and make its own judgment at its next meeting in June as to what its response should be

    The main price driver has been a supply cut from major oil producing group OPEC and Russia, who started to withhold output in January last year. The production cuts by OPEC and 10 other allied producers, which are scheduled to last throughout 2018, are aimed at clearing a supply overhang and propping up prices.

    One of the main beneficiaries of these cuts is the producers’ major competitor, U.S. shale oil. U.S. oil producers are staging a dramatic comeback amid a recovering oil price that has allowed many of them to restart operations.

    US ‘beat all expectations’ in 2017

    U.S. crude production stands at 9.9 million barrels a day, according to the IEA, which is the country’s highest level in almost 50 years. That level of supply puts the U.S. neck-and-neck with OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia — the world’s second-largest producer after Russia.

    “The stage was set for a strong expansion last year, when non-OPEC supply, led by the U.S., returned to growth of 0.7 million barrels a day and pushed up world production despite OPEC and non-OPEC cuts,” the IEA said.

    “U.S. growth of 0.6 million barrels a day in 2017 beat all expectations, even with a moderate price response to the output deal as the shale industry bounced back — profiting from cost cuts, stepped up drilling activity and efficiency measures enforced during the downturn,” the group said

    In recent years, America’s unprecedented oil and gas boom has been driven by one factor above all others — and that’s shale. The so-called shale revolution could help to alleviate Washington’s reliance on foreign oil, including from turbulent Middle Eastern states, while also supporting a bid to export to more countries around the world.

    The IEA’s estimates of global oil product demand in 2017 and 2018 were left roughly unchanged at 97.8 million barrels a day and 99.1 million barrels a day, respectively.

    The price of oil collapsed from near $120 a barrel in June 2014 due to weak demand, a strong dollar and booming U.S. shale production. OPEC’s reluctance to cut output was also seen as a key reason behind the fall. But, the oil cartel soon moved to curb production — along with other oil producing nations — in late 2016.

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