نگاهی به پسا انتخابات مصر

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هذیان گویی بیشتر از این نمیشود که درست یک هفته پس از یک انتخاباتی که همه ناظرین سلامت آنرا تحسین کرده اند آنرا زیر سئوال برده و از روند گزینش رئیس جمهوری چنان سخن رانده شود که تو گویی ملت با یک کودتای نظامی روبرواست و نه یک فرایند سالم انتخاباتی!

“We are seeing the dream of the Islamic Caliphate coming true at the hands of Mohammed Morsi,”
«ما در رویای تحقق بخشیدن به خلافت اسلامی هستیم» مبلغ انتخاباتی مُرصی در اجتماع انتخاباتی از پشت تریبون

نتیجه غیر منتظره انتخابات مصر بستن آب به آشیانه مورچگان بود!
پیروزی چشم گیر و بهت انگیز احمد شفیق در دور اول انتخابات و چشم انداز پیروزی قطعی او در دور بعدی، همه رقبای انتخاباتی اورا به جلز و ولزی سرگیجه وار انداخته است. آنها نمیدانند که با جّر زدن، فقط تیششه به ریشه حیثیت پندار آمیزانه سیاسی خویش میزنند. از چپگرایانی که کلاً، هم مورصی را نماد فاشیسم دینی میدانند و هم احمد شفیق را مهره رژیم فاشیستی سابق و؛ به بهمبن دلیل هم انتخابات را تحریم کردند بگذریم، حمدان صباحی چپگرای ناصریست، محمدمرصی خلافت گرای اخوان المسلمینی، و حتی عمر موسی لیبرال و پان عرب، ۸ روز پس از انتخاباتی که از همه طرف زیر نظارت داخلی و جهانی بود، کشف کرده اند که در آن تقلب شده است . البته اگر شفیق برنده نشده بود تقلبی هم کشف نمیشد. علت کشف این تقلب در این قرار دارد که به احتمال قریب به یقین، حتی به شرط ائتلاف همه رقیبان، احمد شفیق برنده انتخابات ریاست جمهوری مصر خواهد بود. دلیل این برنده شدن احتمالاً زیاد، نه تقلب شفیق بلکه رنگ وا رنگ شدن رقبای او و خود افشا گری و خود رسوا سازی آنان بوده است که اعتماد توده مصری را نسبت بدانها یکسره از بین برده است. با واکنشهای هیستریکی که اینان پس از شکست از خود نشان دادند، مردم بیش از پیش به چند دوزه بازی و شارلاتانیسم این تازه به میدان آمدگان سیاسی که انگیزه اصلی اشان به قدرت رسیدن بهرقیمت است، آنان برای توده مردم یبشتر شناخته شدند.
دو هفته پیش از داغ شدن کار زار انتخاباتی، اخوان المسلمین که از هیچ عوام فریبی برای جلب مردم اباء نکرده بود، در یک چرخش شگفت انگیز از موضعگیریهای میانه روانه پیشین خود عدول و با اینکه تا آنروز اجرای قوانین اسلامی را مسئله سیاسی مطرح و دردستور کار نمیدانست، با این باور که نتیجه انتخابات ریاست جمهوری هم مشابه همان نتیجه انتخابات پارلمانی خواهد بود؛ یکباره شعار اجرای بی کم کاست اجرای احکام قرآنی، اجرای شریعت، با هدف استقرار حکومت خلافت اسلامی و با این هدف استراتژیک که مسجد القصی مرکز این خلافت (نه تنها مصری) بلکه عربی شود، و کپی سازی مدل حکومتی عربستان سعودی و.. ؛ همه ناظرین سیاسی را به تعجب واداشت.
اثر این چرخش تکان دهنده هنوز محو نشده، پس از اعلام نتیجه آراء که معنی آن شکست حتمی مرصی و افزایش شانس احمد شفیق در دور نهایی است، اخوان المسلمین چرخش به راست مذهبی و شرعگرایانه دو هفته پیش خود را فراموش کرده یکبار ه اولترا دموکرات شده و از موضع کثراتگرایی سیاسی از همه حریفان احمد شفیق از چپ و راست و لیبرال و مسیحی فبطی و صوفیها دعوت میکند تا علیه بازگششت استبداد که در کسوت احمد شفیق خود را نشان میدهد جبهه متحد ضد استبدادی تشکیل دهند.
کودنی سیاسی و به هذیان گویی بیشتر از این نمیشود که درست یک هفته پس از یک انتخاباتی که همه دنیا و ناظرین بسیار سلاممت آنرا تحسین کرده اند آنرا زیر سئوال برده و از روند گزینش رئیس جمهوری چنان سخن رانده شود که تو گویی ملت با یک کودتای نظامی روبرو است! و نه با دور دوم یک انتخابات!
اگر من جای شورای نظامی مصر بودم با استناد به ادعا های این آقایان بلافاصله انتخابات را باطل میکردم، با این اطمینان که احمد شفیق پس از این خود رسوا گری مخالفینش در همان دور اول برنده میشود، انتخابات جدید را سریعاًبرگزار میکردم. و اگر شورای نظامی مصر هوشیار باشد همین کار را خواهد کرد. این تقلاهای مذبوهانه فقط شانس شفیق را برای دور دوم افزایش خواهد داد..
گزارش خبری واشینگتن پست که متن انگلیسی آنرا در زیر درج میکنم، یکهفته قبل شروع انتخابات نوشته شده است و دو چیز را بروسنی نشان میدهد: شارالاتالیسم برنامه ایی اخوانالمسلمین و پی بردن مردم و حتی همان توده های ساده مسلمان به این شارلاتانیسم. اینجاست رمز شکست اخوان المسلمین. روند این ریزش و شکست فقط شتاب میگیرد و موتوریک این ریزش هم خود رسواگری این سازمان کلاه بردار سیاسی است.
من فکر میکنم با این زیگزاگهای ورشکست کننده ، و این واکنش هیستریک به شکست، بعید است این سازمان برای مدتی طولانی بتواند یکپارچگی خود را حفظ کند.
متآسفانه دیرگاه است و انرژی برای ترجمه مقاله واشنگتن پست و بعد از آن الاهرام نیست. امید که بتوانم این کار را فردا انجام دهم.
ولی چه اینکار را برسم بکنم و یا نکنم به همه علاقمندان آشنا به زیان انگلیسی حتماً این دو یاداشت زیر را بخوانند.
انتخابات مصر همانقدر برای سرنوشت منطقه مهم است که انقلاب کبیر فرانسه برای اروپا!
از دو مقاله زیر گذشته ، آقای سردار علایی* نیز یاداشتی در در این زمینه «خبر آنلاین » دارند که بنظر من، نمایش فقر ادراک سیاسی فرهیخگان ماست، همان فرهیختگانی که ما بدانها امید بسته ائیم.
تا مرد سخن نگفته باشد ….
*
http://khabaronline.ir/detail/216042/weblog/alaei-hosein
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واشینگتن پست
۱۵ می

In presidential bid, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood moves to harder line on Islamic law
(Amr Nabil, File/ Associated Press ) – FILE – In this Monday, April 30, 2012 file photo, Egyptian supporters of Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood’s presidential candidate, wave posters of him with Arabic that reads, “Mohammed Morsi for Egyptian presidency,” during a campaigning conference in Cairo Egypt. On the campaign trail for the presidential election, now only nine days away, the Muslim Brotherhood has taken a sharp turn rightward, becoming bolder in saying it wants to bring a state where religiosity and Islamic law play a major role and insisting that it has the right to rule.

CAIRO — At a campaign rally for the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate for president, a hardline cleric and TV preacher sang Mohammed Morsi’s praises before thousands massed in the stadium of an industrial city in Egypt’s Nile Delta.
“We are seeing the dream of the Islamic Caliphate coming true at the hands of Mohammed Morsi,” the cleric, Safwat Hegazy, blared from his podium.
the Caliphate and the United Arab States is Jerusalem, God willing,” he added, as thousands cheered and waved the Brotherhood’s green flag, chanting, “The people want to implement God’s law.”
On the campaign trail for the presidential election, now only nine days away, the Muslim Brotherhood has taken a sharp turn rightward, becoming bolder in saying it wants to bring a state where religion and Islamic law play a major role — and insisting that it has the right to rule.
As a result, it has moved away from the more moderate face that it promoted since even before the fall of Hosni Mubarak 15 months ago. During campaigning for parliament elections late last year, the Brotherhood insisted that implementing Islamic law was not its immediate priority, instead speaking vaguely of an “Islamic background” to government. It also sought to assuage fears that it seeks to take over the country by promising to work with other, liberal factions.
Critics and former Brotherhood members say the greater assertiveness represents the 82-year-old group’s true face, brought by hard-liners who over the past decades have squeezed out moderates and taken control of its leadership. Those hard-liners, the former members say, are more confrontational, more determined to impose Islamic strictures and less likely to share power with others.
Former members believe the group’s turn comes out of frustration that the political power they have long dreamed of is slipping away from them. The Brotherhood emerged from the parliament elections as the biggest party in the legislature, a victory it touted as proof of its right to push through its agenda. But it has discovered that the parliament is largely powerless in the face of the ruling military’s control.
Its initial candidate for president, Brotherhood deputy leader Khairat el-Shater, was disqualified from the race because of a Mubarak-era conviction. That forced them to turn to Morsi, seen as a weaker candidate. Morsi has struggled to rally religious voters behind him in the face of competition by Abdel-Moneim Abolfotoh, a more moderate Islamist, who has gained support from some of the ultraconservatives known as Salafis.
Morsi has lagged in polls, generally in fourth place in a field of 13 candidates for the May 23-24 first round of elections — behind two former regime candidates and Abolfotoh. The poor showing is so surprising given the Brotherhood’s electoral strength that many question the polls’ accuracy.
Whatever the reasons, the group no longer tap-dances around questions of implementing Islamic Shariah law.
“We will not accept any alternative to Shariah … The Quran is our constitution and it will always be so,” Morsi told a crowd of supporters at a Cairo University rally.
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اهرام آنلاین قاهره
۲۷ می

Amr Moussa unexpectedly came fifth in the Egyptian presidential elections’ first round (Photo: Reuters)

Final results of Egypt’s first-round presidential polls flew in the face of all pre-election opinion surveys conducted by the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, which for eight weeks put former Arab League chief Amr Moussa at the head of the race. Instead, the polling was dominated by Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Mursi and Mubarak-era premier Ahmed Shafiq, who will face off in a runoff vote on 16 and 17 June.
Results of the last Al-Ahram presidential poll, released only three days before the election, had indicated that Moussa would lead the contest with 31.7 per cent of the vote. But in the election, he only came in at fifth place with a paltry 10.9 per cent of the vote.
“What are these results? Is this our country?” Asked 52-year-old Sherif Mahmoud, general manager at an Abu Dhabi-based real estate company, who voted for Moussa. “These results spell the death of Egypt’s revolution. We chose Moussa for his middle ground. Who would have guessed he would only come in fifth?”
Political sociologist Said Sadek provided one possible explanation: Last year’s Tahrir Square uprising, Sadek said, demanded “bread, freedom and social justice” – demands that call for a domestic politician rather than a “diplomatic figure like Moussa, who failed to focus on internal issues like corruption, human rights and torture.”
Although Moussa and presidential contender Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime minister and long-time aviation minister, are both closely associated with the ousted regime, Shafiq’s focus on the domestic arena may have been Moussa’s downfall.
Shafiq, analysts note, succeeded in winning over Egyptian voters by focusing on two major points: the need to curb political Islam and the necessity of restoring domestic security. Shafiq’s military background helped him in this respect.
According to Sadek, the rise of political Islam “scared the hell of everyone; people voted out of fear.” Shafiq, he pointed out, capitalised on those fears by vowing to curb Egypt’s politically ascendant Islamic current.
Egypt’s influential Coptic Church, meanwhile, also played an important role in endorsing Shafiq, says Egyptian political analyst Hazem Mounir. For example, the church played a part in distributing Shafiq’s campaign literature and pushed Coptic congregants to vote for him.
“My local church officially endorsed Shafiq,” said one Coptic-Christian journalist, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Churchmen could be seen passing out Shafiq flyers to congregants.”
Shafiq has also deftly played the stability card, promising to end the ongoing security vacuum and political turbulence that has dogged Egypt since last year’s revolution.
“An intentional counter-revolution played a key role in discrediting the revolution, portraying the April 6 Youth Movement as subversive,” said Sadek. “They deliberately created a security problem and ratcheted up media coverage of crime, prompting the public to cry out for a saviour.
“Shafiq answered this call by promising to provide security and stability from his first day as president,” Sadek added, noting that “Egyptians by nature like the status quo; they want stability.”
Media impact
Moussa’s electoral prospects, meanwhile, were also hurt by Egypt’s first-ever televised presidential debate on 10 May, in which the Mubarak-era FM faced moderate-Islamist candidate and former Brotherhood member Abdel Moneim Abul-Fotouh. Although Moussa used the debate to distance himself from the former regime, it ended up biting into his popularity because of his tendency to speak in generalisations and failure to present a concrete political plan to resolve Egypt’s chronic woes.
Sadek says the debate had a “very negative” impact on Moussa’s popularity, not least due to his “disrespectful” tone. “Moussa spoke very disrespectfully to Abul-Fotouh, which ended up turning off broad swathes of the public,” he said.
According to Mounir, both candidates adopted “a destructive, negative approach” in the debates, which ultimately hurt both of their electoral prospects.
Moussa’s electoral chances were further eroded, said Sadek, by “media overexposure.”
“Moussa has been promoting his presidential bid for over a year,” he said. “Mursi, by contrast, has been very cautious about appearing on television; he didn’t engage in any television debates. The Brotherhood’s media machine was excellent.”
Sadek added that Moussa had come off as “arrogant and snobbish” to the lower classes. “In his campaign advertisements, he was always looking up at the sky, which didn’t play well with humble, low-income voters.”
Shafiq, meanwhile, ended up benefiting from negative media coverage, which made him appear as a victim. “He appeared as the underdog; a kind of victim – this helped him make it through to the runoff round,” said Sadek.
According to sources close to the Moussa campaign, members of the former regime – along with certain wealthy businessmen – helped Shafiq win the first round. “We heard that [former regime stalwart] Ahmed Ezz’s wife distributed money to peasants and poor people to purchase votes for Shafiq with the aim of protecting corrupt businessmen,” said one Moussa campaign source.
During last year’s Tahrir Square uprising, Moussa presciently supported the anti-regime protesters, although not wholeheartedly, falling short of demanding Mubarak’s immediate departure. On 27 February, two weeks after the former president’s ouster, the ex-Arab League chief announced plans to run for president.  

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